We are seeing more and more stories of key indicators of the shift back to energy normalcy. A small increase in Rigs this week in the U.S., but globally up 27; however, that is still not enough to increase production and lower prices. We are going to see another swing away from renewables in successful countries. Part of the trend of following Net Zero policies is deindustrialization and financial collapse. On Monday’s podcast, we will cover Norway and several other global indices.
Weekly Daily Standup Top Stories
Can President Trump Take Control of the California Refineries to Stop a National Security Crisis?
What would the policial fall out be?
Europe Says They Won’t Need Russian Gas in the Future, But Do They?
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Union has aggressively pursued energy independence, vowing to eliminate its reliance on Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). EU officials, including […]
100 Percent Secondary Tariffs if no end to the Russia/Ukraine war in 50 days – President Trump
In a bold move that could reshape global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics, President Donald Trump has issued a stark ultimatum to Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Drawing from recent reports, Trump has […]
Oil Supply Surge Not Impacting Tight Oil Market
In a surprising turn for global energy markets, the recent surge in oil supply led by OPEC+ has failed to loosen the grip on the tight oil market. Despite announcements of substantial production hikes, oil […]
Trump to Outline AI Priorities in Speech Next Week: Implications for Energy and Grid Reliability
In a highly anticipated address set for July 23, 2025, President Donald Trump will deliver a speech titled “Winning the AI Race,” hosted by White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks alongside cohosts from […]
Peak Oil Not on the Horizon, as Global Oil Consumption Reaches an All-Time High
In an era where headlines often trumpet the impending demise of fossil fuels, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Global oil consumption shattered records in 2024, climbing to 101.8 million barrels per […]
Wind and Solar’s Day of Reckoning is Approaching.
Oil and Gas are booming making the Net Zero energy transition impossible
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
00:12 – Can President Trump Take Control of the California Refineries to Stop a National Security Crisis?
03:48 – Europe Says They Won’t Need Russian Gas in the Future, But Do They?
06:49 – 100 Percent Secondary Tariffs if no end to the Russia/Ukraine war in 50 days – President Trump
10:24 – Oil Supply Surge Not Impacting Tight Oil Market
13:04 – Mid-roll ad
14:32 – Trump to Outline AI Priorities in Speech Next Week: Implications for Energy and Grid Reliability
17:48 – Peak Oil Not on the Horizon, as Global Oil Consumption Reaches an All-Time High
20:42 – Wind and Solar’s Day of Reckoning is Approaching.
25:07 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Oil and gas is not quite dead yet. Next on the Energy Newsbeat weekly recap. [00:00:04][4.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:12] Can president Trump take control of the California refineries to stop a national security crisis? What would the political fallout be? Michael, this is absolutely critical in the face of establishing energy challenges, California finds itself at a crossroads, the planned closure of two major oil refinerries, Phillips 66, Wilmington facility and Valero’s Balencia. Plant threatens to slash the refining capacity by 17%. Michael, last week we had about 12 stories in the last two weeks. We’ve had 12 stories on California. This is critical. So I finally had to ask, can he take control of these refineries and the war powers act resolution of 1973, often cited for discussions of presidential authority says, yeah, he probably can. But what political fallout is going to happen? I have a second question, and that is, how come California is importing 70% of their crude oil when they used to import it all from Alaska. Why don’t we do that again? That sounds like it’s really kind of a pretty simple fix. [00:01:25][72.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:26] No, this is a great overview. We actually ran this on the Energy Newsbeat sub stack. So shout out to everybody. Go please subscribe there. I mean, it’s really interesting. As you mentioned in this article, you did a deep dive on this with, with good friend of the show, Mike Umbrough and another good friend of the show Doomburg, which is coming out this Friday. So everyone be ready to recommend there. I mean this also has a lot to do with what what we saw on another sub stack that we love to read, which is the crude truth about specifically Hawaii and the fact that the Jones Act requires them to import most of their crude from Iraq. A lot of that happens with California. If you don’t have any pipelines going into the state, well guess what, now you have to bring it around with a tanker. Well guess what? If you are importing American crude via sea, it must come from an American ship. It’s probably one of the most antiquated laws in the entire country. I think, personally, I think the Jones Act is encapsulates the idiotic old school regulatory framework and the ineptitude of our government because all 100 senators and all 450 odd congressmen and women should theoretically in a swoop of a button and a click be able to get rid of that and it’s unbelievable but you absolutely are i think spot on i think the political fallout from specifically you know taking over these Refiners is a little bit. Too much to handle. Specifically, that Phillips 66 Wilmington refiner does about 139,000 barrels per day, and Valero’s Garcia facility is about 145,000 per day. That’s a pretty significant chunk of California’s overall state capacity. We’ve also seen other shutdowns, as you pointed out, of the Phillips 66, a Rodeo refinery and Marathons Martinez plants. [00:03:15][109.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:16] Here’s what’s really weird, Michael, is that there are refineries with pipelines directly to the, there’s 30 some odd bases, military bases, and they have pipelines straight to the military bases. So I’m going to guess if president Trump is kind of watching this and I know secretary Wright is all over this, but it’s going to be fun to see if secretary Wright hands him a executive order going, we now have control over the refinerys. It’s what it’s going to take. Cause governor Newsom is running them out of town. Europe says they won’t need Russian natural gas in the future, but do they? Michael, there’s a couple of big wrecking balls there. I had to put that wrecking in there just to make sure we’re not being thrown off the air, but in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European union aggressively pursued energy independence, vowing to eliminate its reliance on Russian natural But when I started taking a look at this The United States, 45% of LNG imports is now coming from the US. Norway, which Michael, you and I talked about this three years ago. Norway was shutting down all of their natural gas because of the green energy policies, they’re now 30 to 40% of the total gas supply. Russia is still doing 19% out of the Arctic LNG. Decline Bose band, but record LNG sales in early 2025. Cutter is rolling right on in there. It’s pretty funny when you start realizing where the energy hypocrisy is sitting in the EU. [00:04:55][99.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:04:56] Yeah, it boggles my mind every time I learn something more about the EU energy policy. It goes, how stupid can they be? And guess what? They keep getting stupider and stupier every time. It’s pretty unbelievable. I mean, and the fact that they’re, you know, they’re This ban, I love how you said this paragraph here, this ban critics argue could amount to a quote, the industrial campaign by inflating energy costs. Well, what do you think’s been happening over the past since COVID really? And here’s this stat you threw in here. Since 2022, replacing Russian gas has cost the EU an extra $544 billion in imports alone with the total economic losses exceeding 1.3 tri-tri-trillion, which is 2.4% of GDP over three years. Holy smokes. That’s a lot of. [00:05:51][55.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:52] It’s a lot of green. And let me put this last little bit in here. This article has not asked the question, why did Russia invade Ukraine until the EU takes ownership of this question with NATO adding countries that were to counter a Reagan and Gorbachev agreement for no more NATO countries, they will not learn anything. In my opinion, they’re setting themselves up for a horrible fiscal Collapse. Should NATO in the EU fail as organizations? I see that as a potential. And there’s a post in here that I put in there from Che Bowles. If you watch that video, Michael, it shows the expansion of NATO and nobody’s talking about that. It has expanded to Russia. Russia has not expanded to NATO. [00:06:46][53.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:47] No, absolutely well. [00:06:48][1.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:48] So let’s go to a hundred percent secondary tariffs. If no end of the Russia Ukraine war in 50 days, President Trump, this to me is absolutely a signal that President Trump still does not know what’s going on with President Putin. The approach aims to maintain U.S. Support for Kiev without straining American taxpayers. He’s getting NATO to pay for the weapons, which is, he thinks, a good thing. The concept of secondary tariffs, if he goes in and applies real secondary tariffs on the Indian and the refineries and the Chinese refinerys of 100% an LNG of a hundred percent of Qatar and all of these others, it is going to be horrifically and damaging to his presidency. I cannot make that any plainer. This is a bad thing, and I think that the bill that is that Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham have put forward is one hundred percent. The Kramer effect is in effect. Do the opposite. [00:08:09][81.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:10] Yeah. I mean, it’s, I’m getting a kick out of the Kramer. Do the opposite of whatever Kramer says. I’m going to talk a lot more about this in my section when it comes to what happened with oil price today. Cause we saw a nice big tank relative to this news. What’s funny is he might be listening to the podcast because this is exactly what you’ve been saying is sanctions don’t work. Now I think the issue is Trump is using the sanction pushback as an him to get Putin to do it to get putin to do something what that is I think is Nebulous and changes all the time the funny part is I mean who knows that sanctions don’t work So he’s gonna say well. Thanks for the extra 50 days. I don’t know what to do with them because I don’t really need them [00:08:51][41.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:52] Here’s something funny, Michael. In the article I put in here, Ukraine critical mineral deals is now a problem. Not only were there rumors, Michael, that Zelensky went and then sold. All of those to the Bank of London or the UK. And you’ve got that going out there that’s not confirmed, but it’s probably true. Russian troops seized control of the Cheveko lithium deposit around June 26th to 27th as part of their ongoing summer. So now. The biggest mine and mineral processing for lithium has been confiscated by the Russians. I’m serious. So President Trump is over there going, I got me a mineral deal to try to bolster up our own financial statements and saying, hey, wait a minute, this is going to go on our books. No, it’s not because it’s already either been given to the UK or the Russians now have it. [00:09:50][58.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:51] Yeah, I mean, it’s unbelievable. This is an interesting double-edged sword. And I don’t know if tariffs are even going to work as part of the sanction package, because Russia’s not buying anything from the US, really, anymore. No. [00:10:02][11.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:03] I firmly believe that President Putin has telegraphed he wants to do business with the United States. If President Trump wants to do business with him and not have a war, I’m all in. We do business with China and China is doing everything they can to take us down. Why don’t we do business with Russia and stop. [00:10:23][20.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:24] The war. Oil supply surge, not impacting tight oil market. The funny part is, and I think what this shows is that, you know, we saw the recent 511,000 barrel increase from OPEC, which was about 100,000 barrels more than was expected, but that has really not untightened the oil market that we’ve seen right now. And that’s the funny part. We’re sitting at $67 and you could argue on a fundamental level. Global inventories are still high, but demand is outstripping supply at this point. So we’re either dipping into global inventories, which people don’t see new air or we’re discounting the fact that these inventories aren’t necessarily going to be touched, maybe where there are a lot of those inventories are in China and maybe China is waiting for a potential move that could force them to tap into their inventories. So they’re not going to use them in case of that, you know, we all know what that could be. So I, there’s this also interesting that, you know, the actual production and this is really interesting. Okay. So this there’s, this quote in here still, you say actual production has consistently fallen short of these ambitious targets and these targets are considering the increase that we’re saying this 111,000 barrels per day in May, 2025 OPEC output ran rose by only 150,000. Barrels, which was well below the planned 310 June only saw 276 barrel increase. So it’s pretty, it’s pretty interesting that the actual production relative to what the supply and what they’re saying that’s disjointed. And that’s always what you have to talk about when it comes to the fundamental market. So absolutely interesting. Stu U S is still, you know, holding steady at record levels. We haven’t quite seen everything turn over yet, but I think we will in a little point, but Stu, this is a great article. You put what I mean, I’ve made the claim that OPEC is increasing production, not to harm and take back market shale and harm U.S. Shale, but to, one, try to eke out a little bit more money as they try to diversify away from oil and gas, but also keep their members in line. Is that how you see it? [00:12:21][117.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:21] Absolutely. I see that in their members trying to get their members in line. I don’t think they’re trying to market share from the U S Libya is really the only one that can do market share. From the U. S as there are now, I believe eight majors trying to bid and work in Libya. Cause Libya has actually got light sweet crude that compares to the Permian. Yep. And so when you take a look at any of the OPEC plus members, that’s really the only one that can take true market share away from the United States. And when you take a look at Cushing inventories are at an 11 year low. [00:12:59][37.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:00] Global inventories are up, U.S. Inventories are low. It’s really interesting. We’ll be right back to the weekly recap. But first, guys, we got to pay the bills here. As always, guys. Thank you for checking us out. Www.energynewsbeat.com. Stu and the team, tremendous job keeping that website up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy business. Hit the links in the description below for all the timestamps, links to the articles. You can also subscribe to our substack, which is our daily newsletter, where you get a very bespoke article in your inbox every day talking about the energy transition, the energy news. Also shout out. Thank you to Reese energy consulting for supporting the show guys, www dot Reese energy, consulting.com. They are the best midstream consultants when it comes to anything that you might be able. To do if you need help, if you’re two guys in a garage, if you’re the largest publicly traded company in the world, they have the resources to help you and they have clients ranging from, like I said, two guys and a garage all the way to the largest publicly trading company. So if you were wondering if you are fit, you are a fit Reese energy consulting.com. And finally guys, invest in oil.energynewsbeat.com if you are interested in how to get into the oil and gas space. When it comes to investing, we have our oil and gas portfolio survey where you fill out a couple of forms. And we send you all the resources on what it looks like to invest, the different types, the different ways, all the amazing tax benefits, the monthly dividends that you get from investing, and then if you are even a good fit, we point you in the right direction. So that’s investinoil.energynewsbeat.com, and now back to the show. [00:14:32][92.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:33] Trump to outline AI priorities in a speech next week. What implications for energy in the grid reliability? This is a huge story, Michael, in a highly anticipated address for set for July 23rd, 2025. President Trump will deliver a speech titled winning the AI race hosted by the White House AI and crypto czar David Sachs along co-hosts from an all in podcast. That’s pretty darn cool. But let’s get in here. And you also have Secretary Doug Burgum on a ex-post. Big news for America Future, $90 billion in AI and investments for new data centers it’s going on. You’re taking a look at the Trump tariffs have brought in an enormous amount of money, but this is all in on data centers and grid reliability. However, Trump’s subsequent actions suggest a continuation of his pro-innovation standards potentially building or reshaping these efforts. The DOE has been at the forefront of these initiatives. I got to hand it to the DOE. Michael, we talked about their report on how they are talking about grid stability. Remember we talked, about having only 20 new gigawatts of either nuclear or natural gas with another what, 200 of wind and solar, they got a real problem. And so this is going to be. Critical as we take a look at this. I gotta hand it to the DOE. They recognize it’s a problem, and Chris Wright is handling it. [00:16:09][95.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:16:09] Yeah, I completely agree with you. I think it’s great that they’re taking AI seriously. You know, I do. You know, it is interesting that it’s all aimed at its rivalry with China, as in now all of a sudden since, you know, we always got to make sure we, we, we have an enemy somewhere because if we don’t have an enemy somewhere, well, where would we spend, where, where would we spent all our weapons technology? I wear, you know, Raytheon wouldn’t get a, get a stock upgrade every six months when they release earnings. So I, I do, I, you know, I wow. So I say all that just to say. I’m all in on this, no pun intended. I’m not the biggest all in podcast guy. Scammer, Pollyopatia is not my favorite dude from, from that standpoint. But I do think that this idea of taking AI seriously is critical, but I think we need to take it seriously for our own reasons, not just do this compete with China. And that’s where I think a lot of this AI leadership comes in, gets a little wonky because Go back to what I said, they’re looking at a way to always make sure we’ve got a big bully that we can fight and spend hundreds of billions of dollars on defense so that our big four primes can have a great quarterly earnings report. I do think from the DOE standpoint, as you mentioned, it is really helpful that we’re taking this seriously because AI is going to cause a strain on the grid. So if you are talking about how to win the AI race. You really should be talking about how to win the energy race. It’s that really comes before all of this stuff. [00:17:47][98.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:48] Peak oil not on the horizon as global oil consumption reaches an all-time high. Michael, I had a blast writing this one. Look at the chart on this bed. Global oil consumption, 1965 to and it’s keep on going. Far from fading, oil’s dominance persists. Challenging narratives from a swift transition away from hydrocarbons, shifting trends in fossil fuels, natural gas on the rise, oil steady, coal resurgent. Coal is king again. But listen to this. There’s one line in here. We have never been in an energy transition. We’ve only been in an expensive energy addition, stutterly. Wow. You went on mute on there, almighty man. [00:18:35][47.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:18:35] Of course it’s like we’re back in 2020. Hey, you’re on mute. Knock, knock, knock. You’re on Mute. You, this is a great article because I think what this shows you is the two competing, a great friend who we’ve done a lot of work for Tisha Schuller. She’s got this idea. Two things can be true at the same time. Right. And I love that phrase and I use it often because two things. Can be true. We can have global consumption at all time highs, but we can also be at a point where we’re in an undersupplied market. And what you’re showing here is that the global oil consumption balance with where supply is shows you that that’s true, but also peak oil is not going anywhere. Now is the growth of oil production going to roll over? Well, Absolutely. Is United States oil production going to roll over? Yeah. I could make an argument that U S production might fall year over year, right? It might, but you have to look at a macro view. Oil is a global commodity traded. You know, if you’re in Hawaii, you don’t touch American oil. If you’re California, you, you know, outside of Newsome’s hair You don’t touch American products, so [00:19:46][70.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:19:46] He touched 2% of Alaskan oil. [00:19:48][1.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:19:48] That’s it. Absolutely. So I think this is a great overview of kind of showing like two things can be true here. And it’s going to be very interesting, I think, to see, see what comes of this as. And that’s the funny part is you’re not hearing anybody yell peak oil right now. You would think people are pounding the table in this very moment talking about people. Well, they’re not what they’re talking about is a slight decline in U.S. Shale. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the world is not going to continue to pound the table for this stuff. [00:20:17][28.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:20:17] No, and so as you’d sit back and take a look, I did mention in there, why did EVs not take away more demand? It’s the old hybrid will. Hybrids will have more impact on demand on gasoline and eventually diesel when the big hall machines ever get to a hybrid facility. But I think we’ll see LNG trucks before we see hybrid big trucks. Wind and solar’s day of reckoning is rapidly approaching. But oil and gas are booming, making the net zero energy transition impossible. This is an amazing story on the energy newsbeat, a substack, Michael. And this is got a lot of Stu’s rant in it. I had so much fun putting this together. What is the true cost of net zero? I started scratching my head. Hey, wait a minute. How much is wind and solar added to the global grids? But what it cost? Will countries survive the net-zero energy regulations and subsequent fiscal collapse? How will the new trading blocks respond, and has oil demand slowed down because of trillions of dollars? And then, Michael, for our podcast listeners, I don’t know where I found this, but you’ve got President Trump leaning over a golf grid, and he’s hitting a button, and you see these windmills blowing up. Boom! It was really a lot of fun, but let’s go through some of the key things in here. Solar led with around 600 gigawatts of new capacity added globally in 2024, while wind contributed 125 gigawattes. Battery storage crucial for grid integration, which is another cost layer for consumers, disguised as retro. 55.7 gigawatts in 2023, the International AEA reported global energy investment in 2023 at $2.7 trillion, with a significant portion directed to renewables and electrical infrastructure. Now, Michael, speaking of the AEA. Our great secretary, Chris Wright, said today their withdrawal from the IEA is now on the table if they don’t mend their ways. And I had fun putting that article out as well, too. We’re going to talk about that in a sec. But what I found was, Michael, there is no land reclamation anywhere in the United States. And when I started going, well, wait a minute, there’s no land reclamation. What’s going on? I even found them in Australia. It is a real problem. And I put a video in here of rotting windmill turbines at this place. Livermore, California is the now Patterson Pass wind project in 1985. And it generated 2.5 megawatts of power and was in operation until 2014, and it’s cheaper to let them rot on the hill and become a real ESG problem. I go into the article even further, Michael, and you take a look at this by Sandstone Asset Management in the graph, oil demand is still increasing. Natural gas is still increasing. LNG is still increasing. You got some stuff. The net zero push has delivered only incremental grid decarbonization, but exorbitant costs. [00:23:48][211.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:23:49] It’s, it’s unbelievable. I’m going to read. You’ve got this section called the verdict. I’m gonna read that right now. The net zero push has delivered incremental grid decarbonization, but it exorbitant costs. Great, great point while also failing to curb the fossil fuel boom. Renewables have grown rapidly. Wind and solar generation are up eight fold and three fold since 2015, but they’ve barely dented overall energy demand. Remains at about 80% fossil fuel with producers expanding unchecked and demand forecast rising. The transition appears not just challenging but impossible under current trajectories. You go on to note that there’s 79 billion of outstanding liabilities just from wind farms. Holy smokes, a lot of great information under there. We need to get Turley’s Law in the books. I need that in Webster’s dictionary. Yes, we do. [00:24:41][52.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:24:42] I left it out of this article intentionally, just because I didn’t want to brag too much. But I do have a prediction in the article that the EU, Canada, and the UK will continue to their current path to net zero and fiscal collapse through deindustrialization. And the new trading blocks are in there as well, too. So I had an absolute blast ranting on this one. I feel better about myself. Don’t look any better, but I feel better. [00:24:42][0.0][1461.2]
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