Wind and Solar's Day of Reckoning is Approaching.
Oil and Gas are booming making the Net Zero energy transition impossible
If you have listened to the podcast, you know that I have been questioning how the wind and solar projects will pay for their end-of-life land reclamation. This also raises several other key points.
What is the true Cost of Net Zero?
How much has Wind and Solar added to the global grids, at what cost?
Will countries survive the Net Zero energy regulations and the subsequent fiscal collapse of deindustrialization?
How will the new trading blocs respond?
Has oil demand been slowed down by the trillions of dollars spent on “renewable wind and solar?
I don't know who created the picture above using AI, but it's very funny and fitting for this article.
According to BloombergNEF, global investment in the energy transition surpassed $2 trillion for the first time in 2024, representing a 20% increase from 2023.
Of this, renewable energy projects—including wind, solar, and hydropower—accounted for a record $728 billion.
Solar led the pack with around 600 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity added globally in 2024, while wind contributed about 125 GW.
Battery storage, crucial for grid integration, saw investments exceeding $50 billion in 2024, building on a 120% capacity growth to 55.7 GW in 2023.
Looking back, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported total global energy investment at $2.7 trillion in 2023, with a significant portion directed toward renewables and electricity infrastructure.
Speaking on the IEA, check out the story today, “Energy Secretary Chris Wright Says Withdrawal from IEA Is Now on the Table.”
Cumulatively, from 2024 to 2033, developers are projected to add over 5.4 terawatts (TW) of new solar and wind capacity, pushing the global total to 8 TW.
These figures underscore the scale: hundreds of billions of dollars are invested annually, totaling trillions over the past decade, which has fueled a green energy boom. But this spending has focused overwhelmingly on installation, with little earmarked for the inevitable sunset phase.
Wind turbines fare similarly, with a name plate average operational life of 20-25 years, though early generations have shown premature aging, sometimes failing after just 3 to 5 years due to inverter issues. We have found that the average is well below the 8-year mark, as most were taking advantage of the funds for "Name Plate" upgrades and increasing turbines.
Without the subsidies for nameplate upgrades, we will see a significant increase in abandoned wind farms.
Here is just one example of one rotting in California. Off Patterson Pass Road, near Livermore, CA, sits the now-abandoned Patterson Pass Wind Project. Built in 1985 by EDF Renewables, at its peak, it generated 20.50 MW of power and was in operation until 2014 when it was shut down and abandoned.
So, how much did Wind and Solar lower oil and gas demand?
With trillions being spent on wind and solar, one would have expected a reduction of more than 2% in electrical generation from fossil fuels, but that is not the case. The bottom line is that the prices of natural gas, LNG, oil, and coal are all on the rise.
The Unstoppable Rise of Oil Demand
Global oil demand has shown remarkable growth over the past decade, defying predictions of peak demand and underscoring the world’s enduring reliance on crude. In 2014, demand stood at approximately 92.5 million bpd.
By 2024, it had shattered records, exceeding 103 million bpd for the first time—a roughly 11% increase despite the COVID-19 dip in 2020, when demand plummeted to around 91 million bpd.
This equates to an additional 3,650 million barrels consumed annually in 2024 compared to 2014, representing vast energy volumes primarily fueling transport, industry, and chemicals.
Natural Gas and LNG: A Parallel Surge
Natural gas demand has paralleled oil’s trajectory, expanding from about 3,500 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2014 to over 4,200 bcm in 2024—a 20% rise.
Demand grew by 2.7% (115 bcm) in 2024 alone, equivalent to 4 exajoules of energy, driven by power generation, heating, and industrial use.
Production rebounded by 2% in 2024, with key increases in major exporters.
LNG trade, a key enabler of global gas distribution, has boomed even faster. In 2014, trade volumes were around 241 million tonnes (MT). By 2024, they reached 411.24 MT, a 70% increase, connecting 22 exporters to 48 importers.
This growth averaged 5-11% annually, with 2024 seeing a 2.4% uptick despite high prices.
Projections from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum indicate natural gas demand could rise by another 34% by 2050.
The verdict?
The Net Zero push has delivered incremental grid decarbonization but at exorbitant costs, while failing to curb fossil fuel booms. Renewables have grown rapidly—wind and solar generation up eightfold and threefold since 2015—but they’ve barely dented overall energy demand, which remains 80% fossil-fueled.
With oil producers expanding unchecked and demand forecasts rising, the transition appears not just challenging, but impossible under current trajectories.
In the United States alone, there are approximately $ 79 billion in outstanding liabilities for wind farms. And the land owners or local communities will be the ones on the hook to get rid of these monsters.
Policymakers must confront this reality: without breakthroughs in technology or policy, Net Zero remains a distant dream amid fossil fuel dominance.
This story will change soon, as the Trump adminstration may even have a ruling on the Obama-era definition of CO2 as a pollutant. Once the EPA releases the final changes, there will be limited financial support for Carbon Taxes or Carbon footprint fines. Scope 1, 2, and even Scope 3 emission tracking schemes will have to be shut down.
I have a prediction that the EU, Canada, and the UK will continue to follow their current path of Net Zero and fiscal collapse through deindustrialization forced by regulations.
The new trading blocs are being defined by the Trump administration as we speak. India, Russia, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will all play important roles.
What are your thoughts? Should we have spent trillions of dollars on Net Zero energy policies?
It seems that people are increasingly waking up and realizing that behind “net zero” actually hides the term “made in China.”
Great stuff, Turley!