With President Trump giving President Putin 50 days to come to the negotiation table, there are some real problems with his 100% tariff threats on countries buying Russian oil. And that is, Sanctions don’t work as intended, as stated by Irina Slav, an International energy writer and friend of the Energy News Beat Podcast. Secondly, the bill proposing sanctions on India and China was drafted by Senators Graham and Bloomenthal. The Jim Cramer effect has labeled both of them. Do the exact opposite if you want to live or be successful.
And we again cover the National Security problem with California and Gavin Newsom. We are over 13 articles on the California National Security issue in about 2 weeks. This is a real problem, and has got to be addressed soon.
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Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
00:14 – California continues to devastate its economy for a net-zero dream world
03:39 – 100 Percent Secondary Tariffs if no end to the Russia/Ukraine war in 50 days – President Trump
07:16 – Town Reaches $10.5 Million Settlement with GE Vernova over Vineyard Wind Blade Failure
08:49 – Why Aramco Can’t Win Under Trump’s Oil Price Doctrine
13:17 – Markets Update
14:49 – Oil Supply Surge Not Impacting Tight Oil Market
17:48 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Why sanctions don’t work, and Putin knows it. Next, on the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup. [00:00:05][5.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:14] California continues to devastate its economy in a net zero dream world. California’s passion to achieve a net-zero emissions at the expense of its citizens has devastated its economy. Michael, this is an absolutely brilliant story from Ronald Stein, friend of the show, podcast. This is really pretty cool. California’s contribution to global emissions as the fourth largest economy in the world is a small percentage, roughly. 0.75. To put that in perspective, the big earthquake hit California and the entire state fell into the Pacific Ocean. There’d be less than a 1% reduction in worldwide emissions. But what is this doing to national security? Let’s go through the numbers. Jet fuel with all of its 145 airports, including nine international airports and 41 military airports. The demand is 13 million gallons of aviation and fuel per. Day gasoline for its 30 million vehicles. California is the second largest consumer of gasoline. Guess where they’re getting it. Michael OPEC diesel is the second largest transportation fuel used in California consuming 10 million gallons. Arizona and Nevada also get 45% of Arizona’s gasoline and diesel and 88% of Nevada. These are huge numbers and Gavin Newsom has flat out devastated the entire thing. It is now a national security risk. This is now number, I think 16 articles on California in the last two weeks. [00:01:59][105.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:59] I mean, to think of the incompetence, the section right under what you just read goes over the fuel taxes. And I want to read this because I think it’s very interesting. So on top of gas prices, California adds a 60 cents per gallon excise tax. They have a 27 cent per gallon cap and trade carbon tax. They have reformulated gasoline mandate, which adds about 10 to 15 cents. A low carbon fuel standard is projected to add 37 cents per gallon and $1.15 by 2046. And finally, if that wasn’t enough, the California’s summer blend requires an additional 15 cent per gallon price of gasoline during the warmer months. It’s pretty unbelievable. I mean, this goes to show you why gasoline is so much. I assume you spent your entire morning listening to Gavin Newsome go on Sean Ryan, correct? [00:02:54][54.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:02:55] Oh, I saw about 0.5 nanoseconds and he looked like a Wallace and Gromit Muppet when he was doing this with his hands. Michael, our podcast listeners, I’m shaking my hands and his hands were doing this through the whole Sean Ryan. I’m like, the man’s a freak. There’s something wrong mentally with that man. Well, he brought about 45 gallons of his hair. [00:03:16][21.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:16] Gel there, because it was slicked back perfect. [00:03:19][2.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:20] Oh, he had to have been also done his back hair because if, again, he dives in the Exxon Valdez accident will look like a pond, an accident in a pond or the ring around the bathtub. If he dived in, this is really bad. [00:03:35][15.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:36] It is really bad, but let’s jump to the next one here. [00:03:39][2.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:39] Let’s go to a hundred percent secondary tariffs. If no end of the Russia Ukraine war in 50 days, president Trump, this to me is absolutely a signal that president Trump still does not know what’s going on with president Putin. The approach aims to maintain U S support for key without straining American taxpayers, he’s getting NATO to pay for the weapons, which is he thinks a good thing, the concept of secondary tariffs. If he goes in and applies real secondary tariffs on the Indian and the refineries and the Chinese refinerys of a hundred percent. An LNG of a hundred percent of Qatar and all of these others, it is going to be horrifically and damaging to his presidency. I cannot make that any plainer. This is a bad thing. And I think that the bill that is that Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham have put forward is one hundred percent. The Kramer effect is in effect. Do the opposite. [00:05:00][80.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:00] Yeah, I mean, it’s, I’m getting a kick out of the Kramer. Do the opposite of what ever Kramer says. I mean this is, we’re going to, I want to talk a lot more about this in my section when it comes to what happened with oil price today. Cause we saw a nice big tank relative to this news. What’s funny is he might be listening to the podcast because this is exactly what you’ve been saying is sanctions don’t work. Now, I think the issue is Trump is using the sanction pushback as an ultimatum to get Putin to do it, to get Putin to something. What that is I think is nebulous and changes all the time. The funny part is, I mean, who knows that sanctions don’t work. So he’s going to say, well, thanks for the extra 50 days. I don’t know what to do with them because I don’t really need them. [00:05:42][41.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:43] Here’s something funny, Michael. In the article I put in here, Ukraine critical mineral deals is now a problem. Not only were there rumors, Michael, that Zelensky went and then sold. All of those to the Bank of London or the UK. And you’ve got that going out there that’s not confirmed, but it’s probably true. Russian troops seized control of the Sheveko lithium deposit around June 26th to 27th as part of their ongoing summer. So now… The biggest mine and mineral processing for lithium has been confiscated by the Russians. I’m serious. So President Trump is over there going, I got me a mineral deal to try to bolster up our own financial statements and saying, hey, wait a minute, this is going to go on our books. No, it’s not because it’s already either been given to the UK or the Russians now have it. [00:06:41][58.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:41] Yeah, I mean, it’s unbelievable. This is an interesting double-edged sword, and I don’t know if tariffs are even gonna work as part of the sanction package, because Russia’s not buying anything from the U.S. Really anymore. [00:06:52][10.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:53] And I firmly believe that president Putin has telegraphed. He wants to do business with the United States. And if president Trump wants to do business with him and not have a war, I’m all in. Let’s do bit. We do business with China and China is doing everything they can to take us down. Why don’t we do business with Russia and stop the war? Anyway, let’s go to the next one here. Town reaches $10.5 million settlement with GE-Vernova over vineyard wind blade failure. And the whales went. You know that they’re over there, a bunch of dead ones are on the beach and they’re kind of going well and in memory, they’re going to have a couple, you know, plaques put up in a significant development for the U S offshore wind factor town of Nantucket has secured $10.5 million settlement on the VE, Vernova address the economic fallout for a turbine lane failure. They’re not economically, ecologically good, Michael. When these things fall apart and there’s that much microfiber and there are that much problems with these things, they are not green energy. [00:08:06][73.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:07] No, I mean, they’re great for the whales, but they’re not great for everybody else. And I think the fact that there’s this settlement goes to show you exactly the liability that putting these up have to do. I mean you want to talk about reclamation for an oil and gas well. Think about a reclamation for an offshore wind farm! [00:08:25][18.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:25] And Michael, there is not one wind farm or one solar farm in the global economy that I can find that has land reclamation as part of their package. If you’re a podcast listener and you know of one, let me know. If not, you’re talking a million bucks per each one. [00:08:47][21.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:49] All right, let’s talk about our favorite wind company, Saudi Aramco. [00:08:51][2.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:51] Saudi Aramco, why Saudi Aranco can’t win under president Trump’s oil price doctrine. Michael, you always have this thing. Saudi Aramco needs a minimum of 80 to $90 oil just to pay their fair share of the Saudi budget. Here’s some in, in the high stakes world of global energy. Saudi Ramco finds itself. Trapped in a precarious situation under the oil prices of President Donald Trump. Trump’s administration has long advocated for tightly controlled oil price ranges that benefits American interests, but squeezes the profitability of major producers. Let’s go into some of this, ARamco’s financial squeeze dividend, dividend pressure and asset sales with Brent crude. They have actually looked at selling some of their natural gas for natural gas power plant divestiture in a M and a deal trying to get money for natural gas, power plants in order to pay for their dividends this year. And that’s going to really impact them. They can’t handle this low of a price for very long without selling more assets, Michael. [00:10:02][70.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:02] Yeah, I mean it’s, it’s pretty unbelievable what they’re trying to do in terms of, you know, they’re to pivot out of oil and gas as a country by pivoting more strongly into Saudi Arabia. I mean, that’s funny. In order to get more out of Oil and Gas, they almost have to dive into Oil and gas more and really do a lot of interesting financial stuff. As we know they are increasing crude oil production and that may be part of their plan is to increase oil production enough. To the point where it might end up offsetting some of the price differences that they happen. I love this, this, you said that Western investors have labeled Saudi Aramco need toxin due to geopolitical risks. And I mean, I think, I mean I don’t know if I’d agree with that 100%. I think there are risks investing in Saudi Arramco but I think they’re a lot different necessarily than all of a sudden we’re gonna be at war with Saudi Ramco. We’re not gonna be a war with Saudi Arhamco anytime soon. [00:10:59][56.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:59] No, Saudi Aramco is going to be part of the new trading block and the new trading block is going be the United States, Saudi, Aramca and a few others, India and a few others off to you. [00:11:09][9.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:11:09] Absolutely. All right. Let’s jump over here and quickly cover finances guys. Before we do that, let’s go ahead and pay the bills. As always guys, www.energynewsbeat.com, the best place for your energy and oil and gas news. Hit the links in the description below timestamps, all the links to the articles. You can also check out our sub stack of the energy newsbeat.substack.com a great place to stay up to speed on custom analysis and thoughts coming from the minds of me and Stu. Personally scary. I know but you can get inside our brain by following our subject It’s a great way to support the show in a great Way to get daily thoughts in your inbox the energy newsbeat.substack.com Thank you for supporting the show Reese energy Consulting guys, please. Please check them out Reese energy consulting comm if you need help in the midstream space look no further than Reese energy consultant guys I promise you they have the expertise and the knowledge to be able to help you in whatever your endeavors in the Whether you’re an oil and gas operating company need to negotiate with your midstream partners and get better first purchaser contracts. They can save you money there. Whether you are a midstream company who’s looking to enter into a, a new play and you need a red team to come and look at some analysis you’ve done. Whether you need backfill support because you’ve lost team members and you need some temporary help Reese energy consulting is there to help guys. They work from everybody from two guys in a garage all the way up to the largest publicly traded companies. In the world so if you’re wondering if they can accommodate you the answer is yes reeseenergyconsulting.com and finally guys if you are wondering what to do with your tax burden this year do not pay the IRS consider investing in oil and gas and getting a great tax deduction and taking advantage of dividends that come along with that invest in oil.energynewsbeat.com is our oil and gas portfolio survey. Will show you if you are a good fit or not. We’ll send you a bunch of resources to help educate you on what it looks like to invest in oil and gas. And finally, if you’re a good and you like what you see, we will go ahead and point you in the right direction. That’s investinoil.energynewsbeat.com. [00:13:14][124.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:17] Let’s go ahead look at top line indices to S&P 500 up about 1 10th of a percentage point. NASDAQ up about 3 10th percentage point, two and 10 year yields basically flat, two 10ths and four 10ths for the two and ten. Dollar index up about two-tenths of a percentage point. Bitcoin up over $120,000. $120.200. It’s unbelievable. Crude oil, not a great day. Down 2.15 percentage points down to $66.98. Brent down… Basically the same down to 69.15 natural gas up about four and a half percentage points on the day four dollars or three dollars and forty six cents You know in in terms of price movement today Obviously we’ve lost about two and a Half percent on the indice down below 67 has a lot to do with the story We just first covered that trump has basically threatened new sanctions in the form of 100 percent tariffs on russia But he has given them a deadline of 50 days until they agree to a peace deal You know, between me, you and the fence post, because we’re all friends. I agree with basically Bob Yeager who says that the chance of us imposing tariffs are practically zero. And he’s speaking a little bit on the fact that China would be included in this if they continue to buy Russian goods. So he’s going at Russia by threatening tariffs on both Russia and China. I it’s not going to happen. Inflation would go through the roof. I mean, it’s, it’ pretty unbelievable. That’s That was really the big, the big news of the day, Steve. I think everybody is sort of waiting around to see what happens later this afternoon with the API crude oil inventory report, which we will cover on tomorrow’s show. But the last one I wanted to cover is to oil supply surge, not impacting tight oil market. The funny part is, and I think what, what, what this shows is that, you know, we saw the recent 511,000 barrel increase from OPEC, which was about a hundred thousand barrels more than was expected, but that is really not. Untightened the oil market that we’ve seen right now and that’s the funny part. We’re sitting at $67 and you could argue on a fundamental level global inventories are still high. But demand is outstripping supply at this point. So we’re either dipping into global inventories, which people don’t see new wear, or we’re discounting the fact that these inventories aren’t necessarily going to be touched. Maybe we’re there. A lot of those inventories are in China and maybe China is waiting for a potential move that could force them to tap into their inventories. So they’re not going to use them in case of that. You know, we all know what that could be. So I, there’s this also interesting that, you know, the actual production, And this is really interesting. So this, there’s this quote in here. Stu, you say actual production has consistently fallen short of these ambitious targets and these targets are considering the increase that we’re saying this 111,000 barrels per day in May, 2025 OPEC. Output ran rose by only 150,000 barrels, which was well below the planned 310. June only saw a 276 barrel increase. So it’s pretty, it’s interesting that the actual production relative to what the supply and what they’re saying that’s disjointed. And that’s always what you have to talk about when it comes to the fundamental market. So absolutely interesting, Stu. US is still holding steady at record levels. We haven’t quite seen everything turn over yet, but I think we will in a little point. But Stu, this is a great article you put. What, I mean, I’ve made the claim that OPEC is increasing production, not to harm and take back market shale and harm US shale, but to. One, try to eke out a little bit more money as they try to diversify away from oil and gas, but also keep their members in line. Is that right? Is that how you see it? [00:16:47][210.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:16:47] Absolutely. I see that in their members trying to get their members in line. I don’t think they’re trying to. Get market share from the U S Libya is really the only one that can do market share, from the US as there are now, I believe eight majors trying to bid and work in Libya because Libya has actually got light sweet crude that compares to the Permian. And so when you take a look at any of the OPEC plus members, that’s really the only one that can take true market share away from the United States. And when you look at Cushing, inventories are at 11 year low. Global inventories are up. U S inventories are low. [00:17:28][41.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:28] It’s really interesting. [00:17:29][0.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:29] You got it. So I think Charles Kennedy is the only one paragraph in here. I quoted was refiners, especially in the Midwest along the Gulf for watching closely. [00:17:38][9.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:40] Absolutely. And you know, to tickle Stu, there’s a conspiracy theory somewhere in there that we’ll have to, we’ll have to we’ll cover on a later show guys. But with that, we’re going to let you get out of here, get back to work, start your day. We appreciate you checking us out. Energy newsbeat.com for Stuart Turley. I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:17:40][0.0][1036.1]
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