Weekly Daily Standup Top Stories
What Will Happen to the Strait of Hormuz and Oil? Iran’s Threat and Its Global Impact
Will Iran retaliate after the U.S. strikes on their nuclear program?
Banks Drop the Climate Pretense and Follow the Money: A Shift Back to Fossil Fuels
The global energy landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, and major banks are making their moves clear. After years of touting environmental, social, and governance (ESG) commitments, U.S. banking giants like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of […]
The Iran Retaliatory Strike on the U.S. Airbase in Qatar: A Page from the De-Escalation Playbook
On June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a key U.S. military hub in the Middle East, in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes. The strike, described by […]
Israel Shuts Down Leviathan Natural Gas Field: Update on Impacts and Risks for Customers and Regional Markets
Israel’s decision to temporarily halt operations at its Leviathan and Karish offshore natural gas fields, announced earlier this month, continues to ripple through regional energy markets. The shutdown, prompted by security concerns amid escalating tensions […]
Trump Truths a Strategic Shift: China Can Buy Iranian Oil
In a surprising pivot, President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also.” This statement, made on […]
China Planned for the Middle East Crisis and Has Oil Stored
China, the world’s largest crude oil importer and a powerhouse in global energy consumption, has long prioritized energy security as a cornerstone of its economic and geopolitical strategy. With escalating tensions in the Middle East—a […]
China’s EV Market is in turmoil
China’s EV market is quite fascinating, and some of their products are equipped with cool features; however, their predatory practices, which contribute to trade imbalances in export markets, are taking a toll on the EV […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
00:16 – What Will Happen to the Strait of Hormuz and Oil? Iran’s Threat and Its Global Impact
07:49 – Banks Drop the Climate Pretense and Follow the Money: A Shift Back to Fossil Fuels
12:48 – The Iran Retaliatory Strike on the U.S. Airbase in Qatar: A Page from the De-Escalation Playbook
15:10 – Israel Shuts Down Leviathan Natural Gas Field: Update on Impacts and Risks for Customers and Regional Markets
16:48 – Trump Truths a Strategic Shift: China Can Buy Iranian Oil
19:00 – China Planned for the Middle East Crisis and Has Oil Stored
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Why oil prices are exactly where they should be. Next on the Energy Newsbeat weekly recap special. [00:00:07][7.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:16] What happened to the Strait of Hormuz and oil? Iran’s threat to its global and its global impact. What will Iran retaliate in the United States strikes after their strikes on the nuclear program? Michael, here are the key bullet points. No leaks, total secrecy. Boy, that was phenomenal. Side note, no Democrats were notified before the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Holy smokes. Operation Midnight Hammer was meticulously planned high. U.S. Risk military military strike inflicted significant damage on the nuclear facilities. It had 14 GBU 57 MOPs, big boy bombs, 24 Tomahawk missiles, and it marked a historic deployment of B-2 bombers and showcased the strike capacity. They don’t know how the damage turned out so far, but the operation highlighted regional tensions. The B2 bombers going to Guam did two things, Michael. It kept people guessing, but it also let China know that they’re pre-positioning assets in case they attack Taiwan. And that was huge on this. I put an unconfirmed photo of holy cow, Batman moment of when one of those sites was attacked. Got some initial bomb things, but what I want to point out from an oil and gas perspective is the LMG flow in the Iranians. How are they going to respond? Michael, 90% of the Iranian’s budget comes from their own oil that they ship to their primary customer, China. However, the Strait of Hormuz is also what 20% of the, of the world’s oil flows through that straight, which is important to Oman, United Arab Emirates and all of the other countries. And the, if it is shut down, we are going to have a significant world problem as far as finances go. So now the Iranian Congress agreed to go ahead and shut it down, but will they? They’ve threatened it 15 times in the past. This time I don’t know that they’re going to, if they’ve only got rubber boats and floaty rubber duck floaties, I don t know that they can. [00:02:40][144.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:02:41] Yeah, I’m a little bit with you on the standpoint of it’s almost like breaking your foot to spite your broken arm. With the standpoint of, you know, if they close the Strait of Hormuz, it’s going to make them infinitely more difficult for them to actually get their oil, like you said, to China. Now, obviously, there are some things that they can do in the interim that can maybe stave that off. But you know what? I think you brought up the accurate point that I would say they have threatened this in the past and I don’t think are actually going to follow through with it because I think if they do follow through with it, it starts a chain reaction that begins really difficult to unwind. And I think that was the game theory that Trump… And, you know, we saw the crew of them last night in the special address. You had XF, Rubio, and Vance behind him. I think the game theory throughout the Trump administration that they’re playing out is we’ll take these strikes. Iran won’t go to closing the Strait of Hormuz because they understand that closing the strait of Horemuz will go ahead and cut off their- money flows, but also trigger a response from us, which then triggers another response to them and goes down in a spiral, you know, sort of a spiral downward. And I think I ran deep down nose. They’re not going to win anything now. This is also extremely unnerving from the standpoint of we may, you know, and I hope I’m wrong, but we may end up this could, if this ends up being a Franz Ferdinand style demarcation in the sand, which drags us into another global You know, I think we’ll look back on Saturday with, you know, a lot more questions than We do now. I think, like you said, the reports coming out as this was as soft of a plan as we could have done in order to get these enrichment facilities. I mean, you who knows if they’re at how close they actually were to a bomb. We’ve been here for for 20 years that I ran was three weeks away from a bomb, so you know I you know you know there’s a little part of me that is you know skeptical. There’s a little part of me that says, is this the same playbook they ran in 2004? They just dusted it off? They’re just dusting off the same Weapons of Mass Disruption playbook to get us again? I don’t know. But point of the matter is I don t think they’re going to close the straight reform moves. I don’t t think we’re going t see $100 oil. And if they do close it, I mean, it’s going to be unbelievable. We’ll know here very shortly. The market’s I don’t know. [00:05:08][147.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:08] Exactly. But what I think that they will do is the three tankers that happened in the last two weeks that were caught on fire were from accidents from Jeeps interference that I ran was conducting on the side. So the tankers ran in and collided with each other. So they are still doing jeep spoofing, doping and zombieing of tankers because they’re avoiding sanctions. So it is a real problem right through there. [00:05:37][28.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:37] Well, and I mean, let’s dig into it just a little bit. So you’ve got about 20 million barrels of crude oil flow through that choke point every single day, which accounts for somewhere around 20% of the world’s global consumption and about a third of the world’s LNG. You have to think about this too. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran rely on that straight to get their gas to market. And particularly the gas and the oil that flows to Asia, China, basically Asia, which includes China, India, Japan, South Korea, I count for 67% of the strength crude oil flows. And I think what China is probably back channeling to Iran right now to say, don’t close this bad boy. Please don’t. And I don’t think they are probably signaling, we will support you in any way possible if you do not close this trade because it affects them more than anything. I mean, 47% of all Iran’s seaborne crude ends up in China. [00:06:32][55.6]
Speaker 2: [00:06:33] There’s only two things that really matter here. China has had three things. China has three major military airlift machines in Tehran in the last week. Were they taking things out or were they dropping off? Kind of like Ghostbusters. And then you have, will Russia help out Iran? But I think that there is a gentleman’s agreement between President Trump and President Putin’s, him saying. Go take care of Ukraine and finish your business there and get a peace deal there. And president Trump is over here. So I don’t think Russia is going to step in, but when we take a look at what the Iranian outgoing, and if the people rise up and they’re tired of this horrible regime leading Iran, this is where, if they want to go out and destroy any potential. They may be the ones to take out the straight. Not because of that. If they think they’re on their way out and they just wanna make it miserable for people, I think that may happen. Makes sense. [00:07:41][68.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:07:41] I think the game theory is is very interesting. We will know very quickly and yeah, you know, it’s gonna have a reverberation on the economy [00:07:48][7.4]
Speaker 2: [00:07:49] Banks drop the climate pretense and follow the money, a shift back to fossil fuels. Michael, this one was really a fun one to write and you take a look at the global energy landscape is undergoing a seismic shift and major banks are making their moves clear. They want money back. They are a for-business profit. JPMorgan, Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup are doubling down on the fossil fuel investments, prioritizing profits over climate pledges, according to the 2024 Banking on Climate Chaos report. Michael, they put in a $162 billion increase from 2023. This is critical. It’s still short of the trillions that we need in order to meet just regular decline curves. However, this is a significant difference to the stories that we’ve had in the past. And I’ve got a interview that I’m getting lined up with the bank of Oklahoma, senior vice president of investment for oil and gas investing, he’s going to be coming on the podcast real soon to be talking about this. So why the pivot? It’s in economics. You got to be able to give money back and in renewable energy, they’re going broke because they’re not renewable. They’re not sustainable and we’re going to need oil. So this is a really huge one and the, but Michael, the EU, the European oil and gas, big oil, you and I have talked about this. They’ve started going back to their basics and going back to oil and gas, but will the European banks follow the U S banks? I don’t think so. Cause they’re making money off carbon credits, carbon taxes, carbon, they’re still in that, that rift range. So they’re going to be behind the U.S. [00:09:40][111.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:41] No, they’re definitely gonna be behind it. I think the part that I think you accurately put in this article is not only the shift from. Climate, solar, wind, especially with these tax credits going out to oil and gas, but specifically the private oil and gass operators. That’s where the capital is flowing right now. The capital is not flowing per se into the public companies. I mean, capital is not rushing into the oil business, at least over the last six months, because of the overall, what was the stated goal of the administration of $55 oil, then they decided get involved with Iran and now all of a sudden oil’s back up, there’s some interesting stuff going on. Point of the matter is even the capital that was flowing prior to this geopolitical craziness stuff. And I think what you have to do as an investor is you have to basically look at it from two angles. You have to look at the fundamentals and understand the geopolitics. Because if Iran just rolls over, well, guess what? Oil is going to go back down to 65, back down the 60 because there’s just that geopolitical premium baked in there. It’s one of the reasons why listening to this show, I’m biased, but is so critical because we break down and try to overview the difference of what’s going on geopolitically that’s going to affect oil and gas, but also then understanding that the fundamentals are going on. The market is oversupplied right now. The fact that Iran and Israel and the US are launching bombs at each other doesn’t change the fact that we’re in an oversupply market. What does that mean? It means that if you go back and look at where the capital is flowing, even in an supplied market, it’ll tell you what the overall broader capital markets believe. And this goes back to my point of the capital was flowing, but it was flowing into the private oil and gas companies. I mean, I just saw today on, we’re not going to cover it, but Exxon Mobil had an opportunity to get a $1 billion investment from TPC Capital off the, I’ll pull it up here, but point of that, but, it was a 4% under their current stock price and they rejected It’s under their stock price. Why would you go ahead and accept that special offering, even if it was below your stock price? But it goes to show you where investors who do this for a living, professional investors, think of public equities. They think public equites are overvalued and felt like there was an opportunity to come in and get a stock for a slightly less premium. I think what you accurately pointed out in this is that what the banks are showing is that, we’re out on climate change and we’re trying to move back into what’s being profitable. When you look at where that money is flowing, I mean, to be honest, in the last three months, we’ve seen three or four different oil and gas companies spring up funded by private equity. I mean there’s not a dearth of capital out there. The capital is being a little bit smarter about where it’s going. These are great articles. I highly recommend everybody Checking it out. [00:12:47][185.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:48] The Iran-I retaliatory strike on the U.S. Air Base in Qatar, a page from the de-escalation playbook. On June 23, an Iran launched a missile attack on the LUD air base in Qatar. A key military hub in the Middle East, retaliation for U. S. Air strikes. The strike described by Iran’s military as devastating and powerful. Sent ripples through the global markets, particularly in the energy sector, yet nothing was hit. Rather than spiking, oil prices plummeted. It dropped 5% to $70 a barrel and RBOB gasoline spots fell 3.5%. Why? The markets are reading this as a calculated move from Iran that follows the Familiar De-escalation Playbook. With no immediate threat to the straight of her moves. The world’s most critical oil choke point. This is actually great news. We’re very excited about it. We’re expecting prices to kind of hover around the 68 to $72 for the WTI Brent crude to be around the 72 to $76 range. But that’s until demand really picks back up. Excuse me. And when it starts to pick back up, look out, we’re going to go to the races then. But the geopolitical factor is now coming off of the premium for that kind of pricing. But proxy actions haven’t been calculated in yet. And if there’s any other disruptions, this is why it’s going to be a little bit of a change. When you take a look at the calculated response, I’m wondering when there’s going to be a regime change in Iran. Are the people going to stand up? Because I don’t think regime change is on the president Trump’s agenda, which it shouldn’t be. But hopefully the people will demand a regime change. So we can only hope and pray for the Iranian people that they don’t do this. Let’s also hope that the Israel takes heed and does not escalate anything else. Israel shuts down the Leviathan gas natural gas field. But this article covers an update on impacts and risk for customers in the regional markets. They have shut down the field a few days ago. But any. Israel’s energy ministry and infrastructure ordered the suspension of operations off the Leviathan and Karash gas fields earlier, citing that security risk tied the ongoing Israeli-Iran conflict. The Israel energy infrastructure supplies roughly 40% of the country. Karsh contributes another 20 to 25%. The fields were taken offline as a precautionary measure following the reports. Now here’s what’s important. Impact on Egypt’s fertilizer market. Egypt has got a direct pipeline into the field producing from Israel. Other affected markets are the petrochemical, Egypt. Power generation and LNG markets in the regional trade. So this is very important. I do not know when it’s going to be coming back online, even though we had the encouraging. Strike in Qatar from Iran saying that they don’t want to escalate things. However, we have seen the Iran strike a Israeli refinery already last week. So I don’t think that they’re going to be bringing it on anytime soon. As the situation unfolds, we will be tracking with that. President Trump, truth strategic shift. China can buy Iranian oil. I did not have this on my bingo card. This is amazing. President Trump announced on truth social China can quote now buy and continue to purchase oil from Iran. Hopefully they’ll be purchasing plenty from the US also. Holy cow, Batman. This statement made on June 24th. Uh, marks a significant departure from the Trump administration, maximum pressure campaign reinstated in February. Michael, this is huge. And in this article I added, how much do they actually buy? And why is this significant? Let’s look at this list. I ran 1.4 million barrels per day, Russia 2.1 million barrels per day. But notice. 1.3 million of the russian barrel is seaborne through the dark fleet and 0.8 million barrels is pipeline saudi arabia 1.7 million iraq 1.1 million uae 1. 7 angola oman and some others but that is a significant uh holy cow batman pivot in this Why and what does this mean to investors? I think that this is, we saw last week or in the last several weeks, OPEC really not able to bring extra supply to the market when they said, okay, guys, go forth and drill more. They didn’t. So this is huge. Maybe this is going to be a shift to get rid of the dark fleet. Great news for Iran, getting the war over and for China. We may have some deals on the table. [00:18:35][346.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:18:35] Yeah, I think Trump is going back to the art of the deal. I think he understands the motive behind a lot of this stuff. I think you rightly understood that I ran while they might threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz will actually not do it for this specific reason right here, and I think this was probably part of the back channeling negotiations that went down before all this happened. So I completely agree with you, Stu. [00:19:00][25.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:19:00] Story. China plan for the Middle East crisis has stored oil. This to me was absolutely mind boggling in their energy mix. It’s still the backbone coal 50 to 60, 55 to 60%. Oil is about 20% to the energy mix with 74%. Consumption met through imports. That’s a lot of oil that they import. Natural gas makes up 9% of the, uh, that is coming from LNG. But anyway, let’s get to the storage buffer here. China invested heavily in strategic commercial oils, oil, not oral storage. That’s that’d be a podcast host at that point. Oil storage to mitigate risk supplies is March 31st, 2025. Their SPR is 401 million barrels above ground with an additional 130 million underground. They evidently don’t have Biden working for the CCP because he would have sold it off to get to a midterm. The commercial stocks of 668 million barrels above ground and total 1.18 to 1.4 billion barrels with 56% above. That’s a lot of oil. And how long can it last? Got it calculated out here in there, basically about four to five months. That’s not bad. You sit back and look at that, go, holy smokes, you can call China a lot of bad things, but they’ve planned for energy security. [00:20:36][95.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:20:36] Well, they think in a hundred year cycles. And so I think they’re accurately seeing that we need to make sure we have large storages for whatever comes, is this a, you know, I don’t know if this is, this is probably not a signal that they’re going to invade anytime soon. It might be it’s eventually probably a plan for that. If they get cut off planning for things like this, any sort of tensions break out in the middle East. So I completely agree with you. I mean, you, you talk about their You know, they’re they’re basically the 4.4 to 5.8 million barrels per day. Like you said, that’s that, you know, 203 to 206 days. You know they also have a bunch of alternative supplies. You know. They they they get a bunch from Russia. They also have some domestics production. That’s another thing you have to note. China does have domestic production. They are not like Japan, where they have nothing and they’re fully imported. They can create domestic production And I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised to see if they go all in on that. [00:21:34][57.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:21:34] No, and this Siberia two pipeline has been negotiated. They’re in the final stages of approval. And that is going to open up a whole new line of natural gas for China coming in. China’s EV market is in turmoil. Holy smokes. I had a lot of fun writing this article. Michael key points research. This is from Peter St on Jones. He’s a D that I follow on X. He is one cool cat besides having my hairline. He is absolutely spot on. And so I took his information and I had an old article that I wrote around it. Research suggests China’s car industry, especially EVs, facing severe downturn with about 400 of the 500 EV companies failing. Rutt row. Export data from 2025 is limited. So what I did is I went and got the 2024 data and took a look at it. Cherry, I never heard of this car at all, had sold 1.1 million exports in 2024. BYD, I’ve heard of, and they’re great. Their cars are cool. They’ve got some really cool features in them, 440,000. But here’s the thing, the implosion of China’s car industry, particularly EVs, is a complex issue with significant domestic and international ramifications. The problem is they bomb out a market with really low prices, wipe out all their competition and have these predatory prices and then nobody wants to do business with China. So we have the EU, Canada and the UK looking to do business with china and have their car companies move over and do weaponization and creating in the military regime and putting their car manufacturers and moving them to their military stuff. Because of all the military spending that they’ve got to do, we’re seeing some nutty things going on in the energy space around cars. I did not have any of that on my bingo card. [00:23:47][132.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:23:48] Yeah, it’s, I think the interesting part is that this price war is not just, you know, I think people think, oh, it just to do with the tariffs that the United States imposed. No, I mean, Europe has imposed a 38% tariff on all Chinese EVs. And you can really are now starting to see who the imposters are. I love that the comment that Peter Ansog said, he calls it the Lehman Brothers moment for China, which I think is hilarious. You know, I think the two companies from my perspective that I see making it through this one is BYD. I think, you know, from a, from a full self-driving standpoint, from a value standpoint, they will probably make it out of this. And then obviously Tesla has a strong presence in China. And I’m, I’m we’re both bullish Tesla. So I have a strong reason to believe they will probably make it out. [00:24:38][50.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:24:38] Oh you bet and in fact I believe Tesla and I know some folks that are day trading Tesla and making a lot of money. [00:24:45][7.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:24:46] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into a special edition of the Daily Energy Newsbeat Standup, our weekly recap edition here on this gorgeous June 28th. 2025, absolutely incredible week. We’re going to talk all about Iran, oil prices, where they’re at, why there may be at their correct point, even when they’re now down here at 65 and unbelievable week guys, so much news. We’re gonna let you dive in real quick guys. Check out the links in the description below. All links to the timestamps links to the articles, check us out. The energy newsbeat.substack.com great place to support the show. We’re going to be dropping our weekly and our monthly state of the union for energy available only for paid subscribers. So please, please, please check that out and then guys, thanks shout out to friends of the show, Reese energy consulting. Thank you for supporting the show if you’re in the midstream space and you’re not working with an oil and gas marketing company, highly recommend you call them Reese energy, consulting.com. Tell them energy newsbeat sent you Finally, guys, investinoil.energynewsbeat.com. If you are interested in investing in oil and gas, highly recommend you fill out our portfolio survey and we will go ahead and get you all the information if you qualify. That’s investin oil.energy newsbeat. Com. With that, guys we’re gonna go and turn it over to the team. We’ll see you on Monday.[00:24:46][0.0][1471.7]
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