Boy, the Mainstream media was upset about tariffs and how they would cause inflation and destroy our democracy. It turns out that Trump’s tariff war is sparking some other second-order effects.
You will see some of these play out in a significant push for the green energy agenda from the UN, which Stu discussed in the story "The Fossil Fuel Age Is Flailing and Failing." We are in the dawn of a "New Energy Era."
The UN is providing air cover for Canada, the EU, and the UK’s push for green energy, and for the United States, we see the tariff dollars rolling in. The three trade deals were important, especially with Japan.
The other significant underlying trend is the emergence of new trading blocs, as discussed by Stu and Michael. This is going to be all because of the tariffs and their impact on the geopolitical landscape.
Daily Standup Top Stories
President Trump Announces Three New Trade Deals
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Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
00:13 – President Trump Announces Three New Trade Deals
03:20 – Brazil Bets Against Net Zero. Yet California Doubles Down on Brazilian Crude Oil
06:05 – Does the Oil and Gas Industry Need $18 Trillion for Investment to Keep Prices Down?
08:10 – Global EV Market in 2025: Growth Amid Fire Risks and Insurance Challenges
11:00 – Hanwha orders historic LNG carrier from US yard
13:57 – Market Updates
15:39 – Matador Resources Company Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results and Updates Full Year 2025 Guidance
16:40 – EQT Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results
19:07 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Tariffs are not like sanctions. They actually work. Next, on the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup. [00:00:05][5.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:13] President Trump announces three new trade deals. This is absolutely huge. The art of the deal strikes home. The United States and India trade agreement. The first one out of the block, the landmark deal with Indonesia described by the white house is a historical reciprocal trade agreement focuses on expanding market access for us goods. This is pretty cool. Especially when Indonesia is actually a, another manufacturing hub that going to be able to use until we can build our own manufacturing. The number two, Philippines trade agreement. The agreement with the Philippines enhanced cooperation in technology, agriculture, and energy. Oh, LNG. Woo. I heard LNG Michael, third and probably the most important was Japan. Japan sets a deal with a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, a reduction from the previous 25%. The framework addresses long standing issue with automotive, electronic and energy trade. This is huge. And when you consider how much Michael Japan is looking at buying from Alaskan LNG, and that’s not even online yet. And they’re already signed up going, hey, count us in. I’ll tell you what, I went ahead and made sure that we added in how much we took in from tariffs and you look at 2015, it was a negative 35 billion. It’s 2016 was a negative thirty five billion two thousand eighteen forty one and now we’re at ninety seven was forecasted in and there and for right now the rest of the twenty twenty five word a hundred billion dollars brought in holy smokes batman. [00:01:56][103.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:57] And you know, this is where I’m the first to pat myself on the back to say where I I’m right. And I’ll also be the first say, you know I had this one wrong. I was, you, I used to always tell people and, and, and had been, had kind of operated from the assumption that operating a trade deficit for the United States wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. And I still don’t necessarily think it’s a bad thing, but what this tariffs have proven is that, because the argument always against. Tariffs was the inflation factor because it is true. The importer pays the tariff. Japan don’t pay the tariffs. It is the importer who buys Japanese goods to bring to the United States and the tarif is paid at the port of entry in the United States, aka by an importer. Well, what we haven’t seen is an increase in inflation. Inflation has still been steady over the past few months and we’ve seen a massive increase in the revenue associated with these So to be honest, this is one where, you know, where Michael got right and where Michael got wrong. I got this one wrong in terms of I had a feeling that while revenues might increase, inflation might this might hurt inflation. It really hasn’t. I think it’s really interesting. You point out this U.S.-Japan trade agreement with reciprocal tariffs going both ways. I think the critical part when it comes to energy is the liquefied natural gas import. And they’ve committed to increasing that purchase of that, which I think speaks to the energy security piece that we talk about all the time [00:03:19][81.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:19] Oh, absolutely. Hey, let’s roll over to Brazil. Brazil gets bets against net zero, yet California doubles down on Brazilian crude oil. Michael, there’s a couple golden nuggets in this beautiful story, this big beautiful story on energynewsbeat.co. In a world racing toward net zero emissions, or at least claiming to, Brazil is charting a boldly contrarian course. As host of the Upcoming COP 30 climate summit, South America giant is ramping up its oil production at a pace that could torpedo global climate goals. Meanwhile, California’s self-proclaimed leader. Let’s hold a moment of silence for our self- proclaimed leader, Gavin Newsom, is quietly fueling its expansion by importing billions of dollars worth of Brazilian crude. This paradox highlights the hypocrisy at the California’s net zero. Michael, there’s a chart on here that is absolutely horrific. You take a look at foreign imports to California. Now, let’s go one step further. I’m working on an article for our Substack tomorrow, and it is about the UN Secretary General. I mean, the hypocrisy and lies that that man was spousing on his speech yesterday was like, I had to go throw up and then come back and try to work my way through and listen to that again. Man, he needs to run as a Democrat politician in the US. He’s missed his calling. This is hilarious. The surge isn’t about energy independence. A calculated wager that global demand for oil will persist even as temperatures rise. And it’s not about how they’re rising. It’s about volcanoes blowing up. It’s the other things. They have got it totally misnumbered And the UN is wrong. [00:05:08][109.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:09] No, the U.L. Is, the UN is very wrong on this. I think it’s extremely interesting to see what’s going on. California seems to always put themselves in this paradox of, no, we’re going net zero, yet we’re gonna buy and outsource our fossil fuel production to another country that doesn’t care about net zero. So talk about California’s scope three emissions. Oh, Newsom’s gonna have a field day trying to calculate his scope three omissions. [00:05:36][26.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:36] Oh, no kidding. You know, this could be the Kevin Bacon of energy. We could start calling California the Kevin bacon of energy, how many different degrees you mentioned, let’s say, the dark fleet. And then I can find that within one degree going to California. Okay, let’s talk about Scope 3 emission hypocrisy. Oh, California. I mean, all of a sudden, California is the Kevin Bacon of net zero or energy hypocrisy, this is nuts. Let’s go to the next story, Michael. Does the oil and gas industry need $18 trillion for investment to keep prices down? This is an absolutely amazing story that i saw that irina slav has some great quotes on this and she writes the world needs one eighteen point two trillion and new gas investments in the period until twenty twenty. 50 in order to secure a sufficient supply. This is what OPEC warns in its 2025 edition of its world outlook. I took that one sentence and wrote this whole article, but I also found from a guy that I really trust on X, Ananias, and he is absolutely spot on. He says, you may not like the OPEX $18 trillion projection for investment needed to meet oil demand by 2050, but consider this. Estimate oil demand by 2050 and write it down. Calculate the 2050 goal production for accounting and decline rights. Find the difference. Under any scenario, trillions of investment are needed don’t fixate on the exact figure that OPEC published. Ananias is spot on. It’s not about that $18 trillion number. I mean, it is about the finding out we need trillions of dollars. I’ve always said $4 trillion is what we need at a certain point in order to do this. So i really like what anna nice was saying. [00:07:34][117.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:07:34] No, I mean, he’s spot on on this. We’re going to need way more cash than you think way more cash than we think. And I think this 18 trillion projection is low. And I also think that if we were to then migrate, like you said, over to all green energy, the number would be absolutely. [00:07:51][16.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:52] Through the roof. Oh, absolutely. And I like this last sign line that I put in here. As for me and my house, we will continue to invest in the US oil gas assets as they offer a great return and appear to have a long runway. I thought I’d add that. [00:08:07][15.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:07] I couldn’t have said it better myself. What’s next? [00:08:10][2.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:10] Let’s go to the global EV market where math does not math up in 2025 growth amid the fire risks and insurance outages. Michael, this is an amazing story. The electric EV market is continuing to surge globally. I’m going to put a caveat here driven by advancement in technology, growing demand for hybrids, government incentives, which are going away in the U S and increasing consumer demand for sustainable transportation. Okay. This is really funny kind of a thing. I found this in a place where the Mastin cited the hazard nature of vehicles in EVs. I took it one step further and I started saying, what’s going on with EVs and homeowners insurance costs? Michael, listen to this. If you buy an EV, you can get a 46% increase in your homeowners insurance, as well as your car insurance because of the lithium battery storage. I have a question in here. Will the insurance company be the reason EV availability for this shortage of the buyer? But Michael, the numbers don’t math up on what they were originally talking about in this story. That I went and I was trying to get the numbers, they were saying all EV sales are up, but they’re putting in pluggable hybrids into that mix is they’re hiding a plugga. The numbers aren’t math thing up. So I went over and I pulled out those pluggable EV. EVs are going down. Well, it’s the hybrids. [00:09:43][92.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:44] Yeah. Well, hybrids, I think we’ve me and you have been on the hybrid train for a while now. Hybrids are going to end up in my opinion, being that triangulation between a generic gas car and an EV because it offers the best of both worlds. It offers the extremely high efficiency and long range capability while lowering your energy costs from the standpoint of you can, you have almost a rechargeable battery that’s being recharged every time you use gas. So I think you’re completely right there. It is interesting from the insurance side that it could become unbearable for some of these people. It’s real fascinating. [00:10:16][32.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:17] Oh, I’ll tell you the homeowners insurance and then the costs are going to make it undoable. So when you look at a hybrid, Michael, I’m going to look at hybrid because I like that is the only way that Gavin Newsom could actually lower impact gasoline demand and all the things. Ronald Stein, great friend of the show, has always been right. Gavin Newsome has never been able to lower gasoline demand. The only way he’s going to do that is if he gets better mileage cars on the road. And by the way, what he’s doing is not going to happen. The insurance companies may be the death of EVs. [00:10:55][37.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:55] Yeah. It’s, it’s, it’s extremely interesting. So what do you got next? [00:10:59][3.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:00] Hanwha orders historic LNG carrier from a US shipyard. Michael, this is a short story, but I thought it was kind of pretty cool. The order valued at a minimum of 250 million includes an option for a second unit and represents a breakthrough for US ambitions to reenter the global stage of shipbuilding. A delivery of the 17,000 cubic meter vessel, the tanker LNG tanker fitted with a GT compliant system and MGEG propulsion decided for the first F of 2028. My, you gotta start somewhere. And I’m happy with at least one tanker that would be able to fit the Jones Act. Anyway, I got tickled at this story. [00:11:40][39.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:11:40] No, absolutely. I mean, you’ve been on this Jones Act now for a while and it’s really one of the dumbest pieces of legislation that we still have. I would put the Jones Act up there with probably the quickest thing that should be able to be repealed. I don’t know why we don’t get behind it. [00:11:58][17.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:58] There’s only about two hundred and eleven jobs that the Jones act is protecting, but they’ve got a highly paid lobby group. I mean, it’s nothing. I don’t understand it. And if you got rid of the Jones Act and then you created shipyards, your own shipyards. The number of jobs and steel and everything else that are come along with that, it drags a lot anyway. Yeah. [00:12:20][21.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:12:20] No, absolutely. All right. Well, let’s jump over and quickly cover the oil and gas markets, guys. Before we do that, let us quickly pay the bills. As always, all the news and analysis is brought to you by www.energynewsbeat.com, the best place for all your energy and oil and gas news. Also hit the links in the description below. You can see the timestamps, all of the articles that we cover. You could also subscribe to our sub stack, theenergynewsbeat.substack.com. A great place to get a daily digest in your inbox of all of oil and gas news. I mean it’s a dangerous thought but you can really the best way to get inside Stu’s head is to scribe to our subsets so buyer and subscriber beware on that front. Sign up for a paid subscription is one of the best ways to help support the show. We also like to thank Reese Energy Consulting for supporting the show guys. They are the best midstream consultants on the market right now. They have clients that range from two guys in a garage all the way up to the largest publicly traded company. So if you’re wondering, are you a fit for Reese Energy consulting? The answer is yes. They help all types of upstream companies, midstream companies, and even downstream companies deal. With the midstream market. They have a ton of experience and we love them. Tell them Energy Newsbeat sent you. That’s reeseenergyconsulting.com. And finally, guys, if you are wondering, if you’re wondering what it looks like to invest in the oil and gas space and don’t know where to start, go ahead and fill out our oil and gas portfolio survey via the link in the description below. It’s a great, great tool that we will then send you a bunch of information on what investing in the Oil and Gas business looks like. And then what we will do is if you qualify, that we will point you in the right. Direction. That’s the link in the description below or invest in oil.energynewsbeat.com. [00:13:55][94.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:57] Top line indices too. S&P 500 was up about seven tenths of a percentage point. NASDAQ up two tenths for percentage point of the two and 10 year yields are actually up 1.2 percentage points and seven tenth of a percent point. Bitcoin down about a one and a half percentage points down to 118,000 crude oil, a basically flat 65-20. One on the day. Brent oil up about four tenths of a percentage point 68.49. Natural gas down about 18 cents or about five percentage points down to three dollars and six cents. Just barely above three dollars. XOP, which is our EMP securities contract, was up six tenths of a percent point. Oilfield services up five point three percentage points. On that front, obviously today the trade talks were the kind of the big, big, big, news of the day… We covered that kind of in the first segment. And I think all eyes are now on the EU. We did also see that crude oil inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels. That was actually compared with analysts expectations about a 1.6 million barrel draw. So it’s an interesting bullish swing, which I think largely stayed off some heavier losses relative to these trade deals. We did see U S crude oil exports jump by about 337,000 barrels per day. Whereas net crude oil imports did fall by about 740,000 last week. Basically, we did also see Chris Wright come out today and say, he actually said this on Tuesday, that the U S would consider sanctioning Russian oil to end the war in Ukraine. You know, unfortunately he’s fallen under the spell of sanctions work. We might have to, hopefully if he’s listening to the show, he can understand sanctions don’t work. We need other ways in order to end this war. Crude oil sanctions do not work. Two other things too, that we saw interesting today, earnings seasons begin in earnest. We saw both Matador and EQT drop earnings. Let’s start with Matador. They had a pretty, what I would say is a slow earnings relative to where they were expected to be. They top line numbers, they had a kind of a recordly quarter production of about 209,000 barrels of oil or BOE per day and about 122,000 barrels of oil per day. You know, they generated about 501 million. Cash and did about it, you know, on an adjusted free cashflow basis, which again, when you hear the word adjusted, think scam of $133 million, you know, they did went ahead and, and, reiterated their, their drilling and completion costs, which ended up being about $825 per completed lateral foot and LOEs of about $5 and 56 cents per BOE. You know, their, there’s San Mateo midstream did have a record quarter. The base dividend ended up being about a 2.5 yield. The street didn’t like this though, as their stock in relative to their other competitors was down 1.4 percentage points, a lot of green for oil and gas companies today, except for Matador and EQT, EQT dropped about 4.3 percentage points off the back of their earnings report on their sales volumes were about 568 BCF. Equivalent which was the high-end they spent about five hundred and fifty four million of capek and they basically from a standpoint you know, they, you know they, they finally closed that Olympus acquisition and, and they’re going to be able to kind of get that rolling. But I mean, again, guys, average realized price in 2025 was actually up to $2 and 84 cents. I always look at again, revenues, basically in, in the three months ending 2024, their actual revenues were up a substantial amount relative to that higher price. So they’re adjusted. Their net income was about $856 million relative to $9 million in the ending 2024 so it can tell you what that means. CapEx basically stayed flat. So pretty interesting note there. The street obviously did not like that number. So we will go ahead and watch what’s going on there. That’s really all I’ve got, Stu. It’s been a wild week. Who’s coming up on the podcast tomorrow? [00:17:40][222.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:41] Coming up, we’ve got, let’s take a look here. I had it just here a second. It is Dr. Robert Brooks with RBAC. It’s a great one. We’ve already started running some of the shorts out there. So I’ll tell you what, I was impressed. I really like them as energy thought leaders. And Michael, one last thing here on my Energy Newsbeat substack that went out on Wednesday, the US is facing its second Manhattan project with our nation’s fate and balance. I refer back to what Secretary Wright is. Secretary Wright was saying about Russia, and I was saying he is right about the global oil and gas market is fungible. But what I also say is what is not addressed is President Trump’s team has not been negotiating from a position of strength than it does and does not understand the motives of President Putin. President Trump’s domestic team is arguably the best we’ve ever seen in our nation’s history, while his foreign finance team is doing incredible things. His foreign state department is missing key data points, as seen by their failure to end the Russian war. And I want to say that again, they do not think, I mean, if they impose those secondary sanctions on the Indian and Chinese refineries, it is going to be a disaster for the Trump administration. [00:19:01][80.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:19:02] Yeah, it’s gonna be a massive disaster. So this is gonna be a great conversation with Robert Brooks. Well, with that, guys, we’re gonna go ahead and let you get out of here. Finish up your Thursday and finish up your week. We appreciate all of you guys checking us out here on the world’s greatest daily energy news show, Energy News Beat Daily. Stand up for Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner. We’ll see you on Saturday, folks. [00:19:02][0.0][1122.5]
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