Daily Standup Top Stories
Big Beautiful Bill May Still Yet End the Green New Deal
Senate Republicans have taken a significant step toward passing President Donald Trump’s sweeping legislative package, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” with a narrow 51-49 procedural vote on June 28, 2025. This $4.5 trillion […]
UK Car Output Hits 76-Year Low: Green Energy Policies, Not Just Trump Tariffs, Drive Deindustrialization
The United Kingdom’s car manufacturing sector is in freefall, with production plummeting to its lowest level since 1949. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), UK factories produced just 49,810 cars and […]
California is a U.S. National Security Risk, and the Gas and Diesel Crisis Was Manufactured
California, the nation’s most populous state and a global economic powerhouse, is teetering on the edge of an energy crisis that threatens not only its own stability but the national security of the United States. […]
What Is the Real Story of the Chinese Economy?
Trump’s Tariffs exposed the Chinese weakness – an economy of exports and not local demand.
Germany Doubles Down on Blocking Nord Stream Revival: Choosing Deindustrialization Over Affordable Energy?
Germany’s new government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz is taking a hardline stance against any potential reactivation of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, signaling a commitment to geopolitical priorities over economic pragmatism. According to reports from […]
All trade with Canada on notice for tariffs. What does this mean for oil, electricity and agriculture?
On June 27, 2025, President Donald J. Trump took to Truth Social to announce a new chapter in the ongoing saga of U.S.-Canada trade relations, signaling a hardline stance on tariffs. “Canada’s been ripping us […]
Weekly Rig Count Down, But Oil and Gas Are Not Out
The U.S. oil and gas rig count continues its decline, with Baker Hughes reporting a drop of 7 rigs to 547 for the week ending June 27, 2025, the lowest since October 2021. Oil rigs […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
01:31 – Big Beautiful Bill May Still Yet End the Green New Deal
04:55 – UK Car Output Hits 76-Year Low: Green Energy Policies, Not Just Trump Tariffs, Drive Deindustrialization
07:56 – California is a U.S. National Security Risk, and the Gas and Diesel Crisis Was Manufactured
12:01 – What Is the Real Story of the Chinese Economy?
14:12 – Germany Doubles Down on Blocking Nord Stream Revival: Choosing Deindustrialization Over Affordable Energy?
15:15 – All trade with Canada on notice for tariffs. What does this mean for oil, electricity and agriculture?
19:14 – Markets Updates
21:56 – Weekly Rig Count Down, But Oil and Gas Are Not Out
23:28 – Frac Count Update
24:46 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Will the big, beautiful Bill be a corpse or a bride? Next, on the Energy Newsbeat Daily stand-up. [00:00:05][5.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the June 30th, 2025 edition of the daily energy news beat stand up here on this gorgeous Monday. We’ve got a great show for you. So let’s look at the headlines. First up big, beautiful bill may still yet end the green new deal. There’s been a lot of changes that’s been happening over the last couple of weeks with this, so we’ll break it all down next up UK car output. It’s 76 year low green energy apologies, not just Trump tariffs, drive deindustrialization. Next up, California is a US national security risk, and the gas and diesel crisis was manufactured. We love a good Gavin Newsom story. Next up from the energy use beat Substack, what is the real story of the Chinese economy? Next up Germany doubles down on blocking Nord Stream Revival, choosing deindustrialization over affordable energy. And finally in the news segment, all that trade with Canada on notice for tariffs. What does it mean for oil, electricity, and agriculture stool then toss me. I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets, cover rig count and frac count spread, and quickly roll through the latest Shell BP press release. We will cover all that in a bag of chips, guys. As always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:30][76.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:31] Hey, Michael, I can’t keep up with the news. Big beautiful bill may still yet in the green new deal as we are recording this on Sunday afternoon, and we are going to find out tomorrow morning if it is still in there, but Senate Republicans have taken a significant step towards passing president Donald Trump’s sweeping legislative package, dubbed the big, beautiful bill act. With a narrow 51 to 49 procedural vote. Michael, that was huge. Vice president Vance was ready to step in if he was needed to, but it’s a $4.5 trillion tax and spending bill. Michael, in this article, I had had so much fun with the left leaning folks now panicking and pulling a Fred Sanford. Michael, I am not kidding. I saw people pulling Fred- with their hands on their chest falling going, what are we going to do with all these subsidies? Wait a minute. Renewable energy needs subsidies? Look at this chart. Projects expected to come online in 2027 are now at risk. Holy smokes, Batman. But Michael, in this article, I point out again, nobody is talking about the 79,000 wind turbine land reclamation that is supposed to happen. And there’s no money for these things when they come offline. This is a gigantic problem, but we will have more tomorrow after this comes through and if the big, beautiful bill actually has big, beautiful teeth against the renewable industry. [00:03:04][93.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:05] Yeah, it’s, I think the problem is you’ve got a lot of people in Washington who actually don’t really care if these subsidies are in or out. So no one’s willing to die on the Hill. This is not a contentious issue. And when I mean contentious, it is contentious among P I think people in industry, but it’s a very small blip in this overall huge bill. And I think that’s the problem with these big bills is you end up with. All of these sub points and these little things thrown in, satisfied this, satisfied this. So you can get this overall big, beautiful bill passed when we’re probably better off chunking this out in much, much smaller pieces of legislation. So we can actually argue about the merits of the underlying points and not try to conglomerate it all in to just say we did something. So I think the fact that this is staying in there shows that it doesn’t really matter to them. You mentioned in this article that they’ve had a massive marathon, late night session. Oh no, they’re working. Why wouldn’t, wouldn’t want, wouldn’t our U S Congress to work at all? I think you have a really great image in here of the clean energy capacity that’s at risk or at that’s risk by technology. You see a lot of this solar and wind capacity spiking in 20, 27, 20, 28, and then basically falling off a cliff by 2030 all the way through 2025. Which I think shows that a lot of people are guesstimating that. I think these subsidies are going way. Again, I just come back to these huge, big, all encompassing bills. It’s a bad idea. And in my opinion, it’s a way for everybody to get what they want while basically making it look like we all did something. Okay, Michael, shame on you. [00:04:47][102.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:04:48] For shame on you for being logical. What’s wrong with you? You can’t talk politics and be logical. No, absolutely. I let’s go to the next story. Michael UK output hit 76 year low green energy policies, not just the Trump tariffs drive the industrialization, but Michael, the Trump tariffs exposed a bunch of this and we’ll cover that again here in a second on this one. The deindustrialization they break down in this article, it is cool looking at this Jaguar, which I’d never buy a Jaguar anyway because it can’t tow all the trailers that I need to. They are down year on year. 35% Nissan 30% Toyota Stellantis down 40% Aston Martin 25% Bentley. Oh, no, my Bentley’s down 20%! Green energy policies are the problem, the UK’s net zero policies are the deep structural issue, the ZEV mandate which requires manufacturers sell a rising percentage of EVs annually or face hefty fines as forced carmakers to retool, shift production lines and absorb significant costs. This is buried into the next story, which is why China over the last 50 years, China has been pulling all of our manufacturing jobs out of the United States. Trading blocks are now forming and those new trading blocks are United States, Saudi Arabia the UAE Qatar, India, all of these Russia, and then you have the trading blocks of EU, China, EU, China, and the UK and Canada. And that’s a whole shift I didn’t see, and that’s buried in these stories that people aren’t really paying attention to. [00:06:43][115.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:44] You know, they’re they’re not paying attention to it. And I think this this chart, which I’d highly recommend to everybody look at, you can find the link to this article in the description. I mean, you know, everything is down at least 15 to 20 percent, which at maximum you’ve got Chrysler, which is also known as Stellantis, down 40 percent. And I think you’re right. I think it has a lot to do with these green energy policies. I also think that the cost of a new car and specifically financing costs of new cars have gone through the roof. I mean, you want to talk about. It used to be able to lease a car at 5% to 8% interest, which was high, but it wasn’t incredible. I mean, this was maybe back in the spare. But now you’re talking about a new car lease is 12%, 13%. I’ve seen upwards of 17%, 18% interest to lease these cars. I mean nobody has this type of cash right now. It’s the one reason the huge car market has gone absolutely insane because… Well, you can at least maybe get around this stuff, but then the problem is you’re having to come up with cash for this and it creates this, it’s super interesting thing. I think again, green policies have a lot to do with it. I also think just overall bad fiscal policy specifically in the UK has led to this stuff and it’s only gonna get worse. [00:07:55][70.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:56] Hey, let’s go over to our buddy, Gavin. I have a lot of hair problems. Newsome here. California is a U S national security risk and the gas and diesel crisis was manufactured. Holy smokes, Batman. Hold up the phone on this one. California’s gasoline price is already the highest in the nation. Average $4 and 85 cents per gallon in June, 2025 are poised to climb even higher. Michael on Michael Rose interview that I just did with me on the, on the podcast. He said prices are going to start when they close the refinery next year, around eight to $10 start. That’s where it very critical when you sit here and take a look at this. Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero and Balenci are set to close by the end of 2026, reducing California’s gasoline supply by nearly 300,000 barrels per day, or roughly 20% of its current capacity. You can get a crayon and let me hold on while I get my abacus out here and the OSU abacuses fingers, and you sit back and take a look. The state’s policies have systematically dismantled its refining infrastructure in the late 1970s and has closed, boasted as many as 50 refineries being shut down. That is nuts. And again, Nathan Hammers, wonderful reporting that he has done shows in the R I repurposed his material in here again. They import 70% of their crude from bad sources. Now this brings up another point that I’m going to get into in China’s in the next discussion. What was governor Newsom’s plan? Was it to import diesel and gasoline from China? And why was China increasing its downstream capacity almost to match the U.S.’s failing refinery? [00:09:55][119.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:56] Kind of odd. Yeah. I mean, nothing really shocks me anymore about what happens in California considering Gavin Newsome’s flip flop. I mean, you remember right after the election, he was, you know, almost like he got hit in the head with a chair and had this realization that, hey, maybe I shouldn’t be as crazy. He talked with all these You know, he had Steve Bannon on his podcast. He had Charlie Kirk on his podcasts. And it was like, has, has he awoken from a, from a sleep? Well, the answer is no. He’s someone who’s, he’s truly the slime of the slime from the standpoint of he’s just going to feel, he just, you know, lick his finger a little bit and see where the wind’s blowing. And that’s where he’s going to go. And right now at this moment, you know, specifically what he’s doing, trying to sue the administration for $787 million, you know, you he’s really just looking to again. Keep himself in the shite guys. It’s, you know, he’s absolutely crippled the ability for California when eventually they enter into this energy hole, which they will. They may not be there right there today. Some would argue they are there today just based upon gasoline prices, but eventually an energy crisis in California. And the problem is they will not be able to solve it. That’s, I think, the biggest issue is, even though there’s not a problem today, the looming problem because of this low carbon fuel standard and the gas tax that we’ve talked about in this article, the fact that the way those mechanisms are set up makes it really hard when this crisis comes for them to flip. And so that’s where I think the, and that’s just where it’s really sad. Cause I mean, California used to be a beautiful place to live in. Now it’s just absolutely, you know, it’s almost a third world country. [00:11:30][94.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:31] Oh, and the refiner in China are geared up for it. So secretary Wright, secretary Burgum and secretary Zeldin have their hands cut out, their work cut out for them because California is now a national security risk because that $10 gasoline and $10 diesel filters to the rest of the United States. So energy dominance is not going to happen under Governor Newsom in the United States because we’re importing that much. Let’s go to the next story. This is tied to this one, Michael. This is on the Energy Newsbeat substack. The what is the real story of the Chinese economy? Trump’s tariff has exposed the Chinese weakness, an economy of exports and not local demand. This is huge as this is tying everything back in together. Since 2018, the U.S.-China trade war escalated by President Trump’s tariffs has significantly been stressing the Chinese economic. By April, the Chinese tariffs were staggering 145%. Prompting China to retaliate with 125% on tariffs. But what this did was it exposed their problems and then it downstream refinery was the double edged sword in there. And that’s where I started connecting the dots on this story. The other story in about 15 other stories that we’ve done, but coming down in again, their car manufacturing, I covered on energy newsbeat China’s EV market is in turmoil. They’ve had 400 of their car manufacturers go bankrupt. Michael. 400 car manufacturers. That’s out of the 500 that they have. But this is now leading up to what I alluded to in the other article, and that is not a BRICS trading block, but it’s Canada, the EU, and the UK, and China, and this is a recipe for failure. I am not kidding. [00:13:40][129.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:41] No, you, you did a great job of this article and you know, I’ve got very little ad other than everyone should go to our sub stack, subscribe to it and you’ll be able to get articles like this in your inbox every single day, but you did great job breaking this down and it is really scary what’s, what’s going on because we could be, we could be left without a day, without a date to the dance. [00:14:00][19.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:01] And the whole thing is all these stories may not have the same title, but they’re all related on this podcast and how important they are to the U S consumers. Let’s go to this last one here. Well, I got two more here real quick. This one’s really short. It’s just an update on my buddy, the Nord Stream. Germany doubles down on blocking Nord Stream revival, choosing deindustrialization over affordable energy. You can’t buy this kind of stupid Michael. They don’t want a US company coming in and at least supplying the one pipeline that is available. They want to make sure it’s cemented in and shut down. I am not kidding. I don’t need to spend any more time on this. Just go look at the article and take a look at this. They are so deindustrialized and they have such a thing against Russian natural gas. That they just are going to commit financial suicide before they ever try to buy cheap gas again. [00:15:00][59.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:01] Yeah, we’ll see. Maybe it’s the Germany Navy SEALs that are going to come in and take it out this time. [00:15:05][4.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:05] Oh, I don’t know. I love the Ukrainian seal story on a, on a yacht. They were in on a three hour cruise and took out the, the pipeline. This story got me cracked that Michael, my last story for the news trade, all trade with Canada on notice for tariffs. What does this mean for oil, electricity and agriculture? This was from a president Trump’s truth. We have just been informed by Canada that a very difficult country to trade with, including the fact They’ve charged our farmers as much as 400% in tariffs for years on dairy, has just announced they’re putting digital service tax on our American technology companies, which is a blatant attack in our country. Good for president Trump. This again, you can hear this all the way through this podcast today about how dumb the Canadian, UK and EU leadership is. And I just want to say, go in and take a look at the rest of this article. But, Michael, Canada! Could have avoided this for a long time by putting Canadian oil Great Oil, which is the second cleanest produced oil in the world next to the United States, put a pipeline in from the Canadian, Alberta, across Canada, and they could have avoided being dependent on the United states. But as it is, their stupid policies are now going to cost U.S. Consumers because we import electricity, we import blah, we Blah blah blah blah, and it’s gonna hurt a few folks So this is really an ugly story that I don’t have all the answers for but just wanted to bring it to everybody’s attention [00:16:44][98.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:16:44] Well, and all I’ll add is it’s really sad to see Canada go down this road because they have a extremely robust oil and gas business and some of the lowest cost oil and gas in the contiguous, you know, North America. North America? I mean, they have really, really low break even costs. You know, the Duvernay and the Montney are probably some of the most unsung oil basins around the world from an onshore standpoint. So it’s really sad. I mean, they could truly, truly. Go hard and dive into all this stuff. But just like some of the, just like what we’ve done here in the United States, we’ve choked off our own ability to create energy and it only is gonna help push us towards this looming energy crisis. [00:17:25][40.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:26] So you can see that we had a real energy theme here. [00:17:29][2.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:30] What a theme. All right, guys, let’s jump over and quickly touch on finance before we do that. Let’s quickly pay the bills. As always, guys. Energy newsbeat.com is where all this news and analysis is from. Check out the links to all the articles in the description below. You can also see the timestamps. Also shout out to friends of the show, Reese Energy Consulting for making this show possible. Guys, if you would all need help in the midstream space, I mean, they are one of the best firms when it comes to … Getting things done in the midstream space, whether you’re an upstream company who needs marketing help, whether you are a midstream company who needs an outsourced project, who needs a, an analysis on a potential new capital allocation that you’re going to do, check out reeseenergyconsulting.com, tell them Energy Newsbeat sent you and they will hook it up. Next guys, one of the best ways to support the show is subscribe to our sub stack, theenergynewsbeat.substack.com. Stu and I write articles there every single day that you could only find there. And we are also doing a bunch of stuff for paid only subscribers. So if you want even more access to some of our news and thoughts, please check us out and give us a paid subscription over at theenergynewsbeat.substack.com. And finally guys, if you are considering adding oil and gas to your portfolio, but not quite sure what that means for you, fill out our oil and gasoline portfolio survey at investinoil.energynewspeed.com, it’s a great, great resource. Fill it out, we will get you all the information. On how to go ahead and basically you fill it out and we’re going to, and based on your answers, we will give you all the information and point you in the right direction when it comes to investing in the oil and gas business. Again, that’s invest in oil.energynewsbeat.com. [00:19:11][100.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:19:14] Let’s just quickly Stu touch on top line indices here. S and P 500 on Friday up about a half a percentage point. NASDAQ was up about three, four tenths of a percentage point after falling the day before both those indices, you know, nearing all time Hi, so. You know as you know everybody jokes you know market was down 30 percent last month hey it’s a great time to buy and i think you know it’s clearly what it showed i’m glad i bought and then i hope you all had an opportunity to get in at some at some low cost indices at least for what might be for the next six months now two and ten year yields seven tenths of a percentage point two uh ten year yield was six tenths or percentage point up both those indices rose three point seven and four point two for those indices dollar index uh dropped to fresh three your lows down tenth of a percentage point. I’m down to $97.25, so the dollar is beginning to weaken substantially relative to the overall market. Bitcoin up to $107, $600. That’s basically up about $200 this weekend or about two-tenths of a percentage point. Crude oil is basically flat on Friday. Natural gas was up big, up about 6% or about 21 cents, $3.73. Crude Oil sitting at $65.52. XOP, which is our EMP securities contract, was down about half a percentage point. You know, I think, you know, a lot of where the balance right now is, you I think the geopolitical stuff has calmed down for a bit in terms of the imminent war with Iran. You know? Thank goodness. So now we move back into what I would call a fundamental discussion of, okay, we know OPEC plus is now planning on increasing another 411,000 barrels in August. If we don’t see any major supply disruptions going on in the Middle Well, then all of a sudden, now we’re back. In this, well, we still are in an oversupplied market, you know, yes, domestic, domestic supply and domestic crude oil storage is down, but that doesn’t mean overall global storage is down. And if in contrary global storage is up. So again, we are in a oversupply market, meaning prices are going to be impacted from that. And, you know, there are four delegates last week and this was on Thursday. From OPEC plus who represent them said that their goal is to boost that production by that 411,000 barrels. You know, I think it’s, it’s going to, you know, it, it it’s gonna be interesting rice I, we, we love rystad, Javiv Shah. This was his quote. The market is almost entirely shrugged off geopolitical risk premiums for almost a week as we return to a fundamentals driven market. It’s almost like they listen to the show. We love our friends over at rice dad. So it’s it’s. Going to be interesting. You know, we’re still seeing China importing Iranian oil, which means that’s still flowing naturally. [00:21:56][162.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:21:56] I think the other big thing Stu to point out that we covered on NewsBeat was rig count. It was down seven week over week, which is another huge drop down to 547. That’s for the week of June 27th. And it’s its lowest since October of 2021, which is unbelievable. Oil rigs dropped by six, gas rigs, dropped by two. And it, I mean, it’s pretty unbelievable. You see the majority of the rigs right now are operating in the Permian. You have very few in the DJ, a little bit in the Bakken, a couple going on offshore, but I mean, really the majority of the rigs are in the permian, which is unbelievable. I highly recommend guys checking out our oil and gas rig count breakdown. Again, the, you know, when you look at inventory, we have this great analysis here on, on inventory trends. I think the issue is when you know we get, you know, why aren’t people worried about it? We saw for the last three weeks, we’ve seen three straight drops in crude oil inventories in the United States. Why hasn’t that affected prices? Well, because again, we don’t just operate on a U.S. Basis. Yes, it’s nice when the USA has inventories, but just because we don’t have inventories here doesn’t mean that the rest of the world doesn’t have inventories. And I think again, I’m going to hammer, hammer, this point home. We are in an oversupplied market, meaning if we are returning to fundamentals and the geopolitical premiums are being stripped out of We have to understand that we’re an environment which prices are going to stay depressed. So I think it’s, you know, it’s going to be very interesting to see how it goes. [00:23:27][90.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:23:28] We also did see US frac count spread that dropped by three. So people are even shedding frac rigs. I mean, if you’re, if want to go get it completed well right now, you have absolutely your pick of the litter when it comes to when it comes to the frat cruise. And that’s really it, Stu. There was nothing much interesting. You know, we talked a little bit last week about the Shell BB stuff. It’d be very interesting to see where that goes, but that’s at least dead for the next six months, barring a third company coming out of the blue and making an offer based upon UK regulations. So I think it’s going to be interesting. My favorite part of the Monday show, Stu, what are you worried about this week. [00:24:01][33.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:24:02] Well, I’m going to be curious because by the time we record this to the big, beautiful bill, I am going to curious to see if president Trump can get past the parliamentarian that has been there for so long that I’m going to honest with you, our Senate leader, leader Thun should have overridden and it is pretty amazing that we have a deep state parliamentarian, that is not controllable. [00:24:29][27.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:24:30] No, I agree. I completely agree. It’s I think I think this week we’re going to see a lot of political stuff that moves in. I think whatever happens with these subsidies is going to drive it. Actually, it’s going to force a lot of capital back into the oil and gas space from a macro level. So it could be very interesting, guys. But with that, we’re gonna let you let you get out of here. Start your week. Thank you for checking us out. World’s greatest website, Energy Newsbeat.com for Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:24:30][0.0]
[1445.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Will the big, beautiful Bill be a corpse or a bride? Next, on the Energy Newsbeat Daily stand-up. [00:00:05][5.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the June 30th, 2025 edition of the daily energy news beat stand up here on this gorgeous Monday. We’ve got a great show for you. So let’s look at the headlines. First up big, beautiful bill may still yet end the green new deal. There’s been a lot of changes that’s been happening over the last couple of weeks with this, so we’ll break it all down next up UK car output. It’s 76 year low green energy apologies, not just Trump tariffs, drive deindustrialization. Next up, California is a US national security risk, and the gas and diesel crisis was manufactured. We love a good Gavin Newsom story. Next up from the energy use beat Substack, what is the real story of the Chinese economy? Next up Germany doubles down on blocking Nord Stream Revival, choosing deindustrialization over affordable energy. And finally in the news segment, all that trade with Canada on notice for tariffs. What does it mean for oil, electricity, and agriculture stool then toss me. I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets, cover rig count and frat count spread, and quickly roll through the latest Shell BP press release. We will cover all that in a bag of chips, guys. As always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:30][76.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:31] Hey, Michael, I can’t keep up with the news. Big beautiful bill may still yet in the green new deal as we are recording this on Sunday afternoon, and we are going to find out tomorrow morning if it is still in there, but Senate Republicans have taken a significant step towards passing president Donald Trump’s sweeping legislative package, dubbed the big, beautiful bill act. With a narrow 51 to 49 procedural vote. Michael, that was huge. Vice president Vance was ready to step in if he was needed to, but it’s a $4.5 trillion tax and spending bill. Michael, in this article, I had had so much fun with the left leaning folks now panicking and pulling a Fred Sanford. Michael, I am not kidding. I saw people pulling Fred- with their hands on their chest falling going, what are we going to do with all these subsidies? Wait a minute. Renewable energy needs subsidies? Look at this chart. Projects expected to come online in 2027 are now at risk. Holy smokes, Batman. But Michael, in this article, I point out again, nobody is talking about the 79,000 wind turbine land reclamation that is supposed to happen. And there’s no money for these things when they come offline. This is a gigantic problem, but we will have more tomorrow after this comes through and if the big, beautiful bill actually has big, beautiful teeth against the renewable industry. [00:03:04][93.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:05] Yeah, it’s, I think the problem is you’ve got a lot of people in Washington who actually don’t really care if these subsidies are in or out. So no one’s willing to die on the Hill. This is not a contentious issue. And when I mean contentious, it is contentious among P I think people in industry, but it’s a very small blip in this overall huge bill. And I think that’s the problem with these big bills is you end up with. All of these sub points and these little things thrown in, satisfied this, satisfied this. So you can get this overall big, beautiful bill passed when we’re probably better off chunking this out in much, much smaller pieces of legislation. So we can actually argue about the merits of the underlying points and not try to conglomerate it all in to just say we did something. So I think the fact that this is staying in there shows that it doesn’t really matter to them. You mentioned in this article that they’ve had a massive marathon, late night session. Oh no, they’re working. Why wouldn’t, wouldn’t want, wouldn’t our U S Congress to work at all? I think you have a really great image in here of the clean energy capacity that’s at risk or at that’s risk by technology. You see a lot of this solar and wind capacity spiking in 20, 27, 20, 28, and then basically falling off a cliff by 2030 all the way through 2025. Which I think shows that a lot of people are guesstimating that. I think these subsidies are going way. Again, I just come back to these huge, big, all encompassing bills. It’s a bad idea. And in my opinion, it’s a way for everybody to get what they want while basically making it look like we all did something. Okay, Michael, shame on you. [00:04:47][102.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:04:48] For shame on you for being logical. What’s wrong with you? You can’t talk politics and be logical. No, absolutely. I let’s go to the next story. Michael UK output hit 76 year low green energy policies, not just the Trump tariffs drive the industrialization, but Michael, the Trump tariffs exposed a bunch of this and we’ll cover that again here in a second on this one. The deindustrialization they break down in this article, it is cool looking at this Jaguar, which I’d never buy a Jaguar anyway because it can’t tow all the trailers that I need to. They are down year on year. 35% Nissan 30% Toyota Stellantis down 40% Aston Martin 25% Bentley. Oh, no, my Bentley’s down 20%! Green energy policies are the problem, the UK’s net zero policies are the deep structural issue, the ZEV mandate which requires manufacturers sell a rising percentage of EVs annually or face hefty fines as forced carmakers to retool, shift production lines and absorb significant costs. This is buried into the next story, which is why China over the last 50 years, China has been pulling all of our manufacturing jobs out of the United States. Trading blocks are now forming and those new trading blocks are United States, Saudi Arabia the UAE Qatar, India, all of these Russia, and then you have the trading blocks of EU, China, EU, China, and the UK and Canada. And that’s a whole shift I didn’t see, and that’s buried in these stories that people aren’t really paying attention to. [00:06:43][115.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:44] You know, they’re they’re not paying attention to it. And I think this this chart, which I’d highly recommend to everybody look at, you can find the link to this article in the description. I mean, you know, everything is down at least 15 to 20 percent, which at maximum you’ve got Chrysler, which is also known as Stellantis, down 40 percent. And I think you’re right. I think it has a lot to do with these green energy policies. I also think that the cost of a new car and specifically financing costs of new cars have gone through the roof. I mean, you want to talk about. It used to be able to lease a car at 5% to 8% interest, which was high, but it wasn’t incredible. I mean, this was maybe back in the spare. But now you’re talking about a new car lease is 12%, 13%. I’ve seen upwards of 17%, 18% interest to lease these cars. I mean nobody has this type of cash right now. It’s the one reason the huge car market has gone absolutely insane because… Well, you can at least maybe get around this stuff, but then the problem is you’re having to come up with cash for this and it creates this, it’s super interesting thing. I think again, green policies have a lot to do with it. I also think just overall bad fiscal policy specifically in the UK has led to this stuff and it’s only gonna get worse. [00:07:55][70.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:56] Hey, let’s go over to our buddy, Gavin. I have a lot of hair problems. Newsome here. California is a U S national security risk and the gas and diesel crisis was manufactured. Holy smokes, Batman. Hold up the phone on this one. California’s gasoline price is already the highest in the nation. Average $4 and 85 cents per gallon in June, 2025 are poised to climb even higher. Michael on Michael Rose interview that I just did with me on the, on the podcast. He said prices are going to start when they close the refinery next year, around eight to $10 start. That’s where it very critical when you sit here and take a look at this. Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero and Balenci are set to close by the end of 2026, reducing California’s gasoline supply by nearly 300,000 barrels per day, or roughly 20% of its current capacity. You can get a crayon and let me hold on while I get my abacus out here and the OSU abacuses fingers, and you sit back and take a look. The state’s policies have systematically dismantled its refining infrastructure in the late 1970s and has closed, boasted as many as 50 refineries being shut down. That is nuts. And again, Nathan Hammers, wonderful reporting that he has done shows in the R I repurposed his material in here again. They import 70% of their crude from bad sources. Now this brings up another point that I’m going to get into in China’s in the next discussion. What was governor Newsom’s plan? Was it to import diesel and gasoline from China? And why was China increasing its downstream capacity almost to match the U.S.’s failing refinery? [00:09:55][119.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:56] Kind of odd. Yeah. I mean, nothing really shocks me anymore about what happens in California considering Gavin Newsome’s flip flop. I mean, you remember right after the election, he was, you know, almost like he got hit in the head with a chair and had this realization that, hey, maybe I shouldn’t be as crazy. He talked with all these You know, he had Steve Bannon on his podcast. He had Charlie Kirk on his podcasts. And it was like, has, has he awoken from a, from a sleep? Well, the answer is no. He’s someone who’s, he’s truly the slime of the slime from the standpoint of he’s just going to feel, he just, you know, lick his finger a little bit and see where the wind’s blowing. And that’s where he’s going to go. And right now at this moment, you know, specifically what he’s doing, trying to sue the administration for $787 million, you know, you he’s really just looking to again. Keep himself in the shite guys. It’s, you know, he’s absolutely crippled the ability for California when eventually they enter into this energy hole, which they will. They may not be there right there today. Some would argue they are there today just based upon gasoline prices, but eventually an energy crisis in California. And the problem is they will not be able to solve it. That’s, I think, the biggest issue is, even though there’s not a problem today, the looming problem because of this low carbon fuel standard and the gas tax that we’ve talked about in this article, the fact that the way those mechanisms are set up makes it really hard when this crisis comes for them to flip. And so that’s where I think the, and that’s just where it’s really sad. Cause I mean, California used to be a beautiful place to live in. Now it’s just absolutely, you know, it’s almost a third world country. [00:11:30][94.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:31] Oh, and the refiner in China are geared up for it. So secretary Wright, secretary Burgum and secretary Zeldin have their hands cut out, their work cut out for them because California is now a national security risk because that $10 gasoline and $10 diesel filters to the rest of the United States. So energy dominance is not going to happen under Governor Newsom in the United States because we’re importing that much. Let’s go to the next story. This is tied to this one, Michael. This is on the Energy Newsbeat substack. The what is the real story of the Chinese economy? Trump’s tariff has exposed the Chinese weakness, an economy of exports and not local demand. This is huge as this is tying everything back in together. Since 2018, the U.S.-China trade war escalated by President Trump’s tariffs has significantly been stressing the Chinese economic. By April, the Chinese tariffs were staggering 145%. Prompting China to retaliate with 125% on tariffs. But what this did was it exposed their problems and then it downstream refinery was the double edged sword in there. And that’s where I started connecting the dots on this story. The other story in about 15 other stories that we’ve done, but coming down in again, their car manufacturing, I covered on energy newsbeat China’s EV market is in turmoil. They’ve had 400 of their car manufacturers go bankrupt. Michael. 400 car manufacturers. That’s out of the 500 that they have. But this is now leading up to what I alluded to in the other article, and that is not a BRICS trading block, but it’s Canada, the EU, and the UK, and China, and this is a recipe for failure. I am not kidding. [00:13:40][129.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:41] No, you, you did a great job of this article and you know, I’ve got very little ad other than everyone should go to our sub stack, subscribe to it and you’ll be able to get articles like this in your inbox every single day, but you did great job breaking this down and it is really scary what’s, what’s going on because we could be, we could be left without a day, without a date to the dance. [00:14:00][19.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:01] And the whole thing is all these stories may not have the same title, but they’re all related on this podcast and how important they are to the U S consumers. Let’s go to this last one here. Well, I got two more here real quick. This one’s really short. It’s just an update on my buddy, the Nord Stream. Germany doubles down on blocking Nord Stream revival, choosing deindustrialization over affordable energy. You can’t buy this kind of stupid Michael. They don’t want a US company coming in and at least supplying the one pipeline that is available. They want to make sure it’s cemented in and shut down. I am not kidding. I don’t need to spend any more time on this. Just go look at the article and take a look at this. They are so deindustrialized and they have such a thing against Russian natural gas. That they just are going to commit financial suicide before they ever try to buy cheap gas again. [00:15:00][59.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:01] Yeah, we’ll see. Maybe it’s the Germany Navy SEALs that are going to come in and take it out this time. [00:15:05][4.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:05] Oh, I don’t know. I love the Ukrainian seal story on a, on a yacht. They were in on a three hour cruise and took out the, the pipeline. This story got me cracked that Michael, my last story for the news trade, all trade with Canada on notice for tariffs. What does this mean for oil, electricity and agriculture? This was from a president Trump’s truth. We have just been informed by Canada that a very difficult country to trade with, including the fact They’ve charged our farmers as much as 400% in tariffs for years on dairy, has just announced they’re putting digital service tax on our American technology companies, which is a blatant attack in our country. Good for president Trump. This again, you can hear this all the way through this podcast today about how dumb the Canadian, UK and EU leadership is. And I just want to say, go in and take a look at the rest of this article. But, Michael, Canada! Could have avoided this for a long time by putting Canadian oil Great Oil, which is the second cleanest produced oil in the world next to the United States, put a pipeline in from the Canadian, Alberta, across Canada, and they could have avoided being dependent on the United states. But as it is, their stupid policies are now going to cost U.S. Consumers because we import electricity, we import blah, we Blah blah blah blah, and it’s gonna hurt a few folks So this is really an ugly story that I don’t have all the answers for but just wanted to bring it to everybody’s attention [00:16:44][98.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:16:44] Well, and all I’ll add is it’s really sad to see Canada go down this road because they have a extremely robust oil and gas business and some of the lowest cost oil and gas in the contiguous, you know, North America. North America? I mean, they have really, really low break even costs. You know, the Duvernay and the Montney are probably some of the most unsung oil basins around the world from an onshore standpoint. So it’s really sad. I mean, they could truly, truly. Go hard and dive into all this stuff. But just like some of the, just like what we’ve done here in the United States, we’ve choked off our own ability to create energy and it only is gonna help push us towards this looming energy crisis. [00:17:25][40.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:26] So you can see that we had a real energy theme here. [00:17:29][2.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:30] What a theme. All right, guys, let’s jump over and quickly touch on finance before we do that. Let’s quickly pay the bills. As always, guys. Energy newsbeat.com is where all this news and analysis is from. Check out the links to all the articles in the description below. You can also see the timestamps. Also shout out to friends of the show, Reese Energy Consulting for making this show possible. Guys, if you would all need help in the midstream space, I mean, they are one of the best firms when it comes to … Getting things done in the midstream space, whether you’re an upstream company who needs marketing help, whether you are a midstream company who needs an outsourced project, who needs a, an analysis on a potential new capital allocation that you’re going to do, check out reeseenergyconsulting.com, tell them Energy Newsbeat sent you and they will hook it up. Next guys, one of the best ways to support the show is subscribe to our sub stack, theenergynewsbeat.substack.com. Stu and I write articles there every single day that you could only find there. And we are also doing a bunch of stuff for paid only subscribers. So if you want even more access to some of our news and thoughts, please check us out and give us a paid subscription over at theenergynewsbeat.substack.com. And finally guys, if you are considering adding oil and gas to your portfolio, but not quite sure what that means for you, fill out our oil and gasoline portfolio survey at investinoil.energynewspeed.com, it’s a great, great resource. Fill it out, we will get you all the information. On how to go ahead and basically you fill it out and we’re going to, and based on your answers, we will give you all the information and point you in the right direction when it comes to investing in the oil and gas business. Again, that’s invest in oil.energynewsbeat.com. [00:19:11][100.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:19:14] Let’s just quickly Stu touch on top line indices here. S and P 500 on Friday up about a half a percentage point. NASDAQ was up about three, four tenths of a percentage point after falling the day before both those indices, you know, nearing all time Hi, so. You know as you know everybody jokes you know market was down 30 percent last month hey it’s a great time to buy and i think you know it’s clearly what it showed i’m glad i bought and then i hope you all had an opportunity to get in at some at some low cost indices at least for what might be for the next six months now two and ten year yields seven tenths of a percentage point two uh ten year yield was six tenths or percentage point up both those indices rose three point seven and four point two for those indices dollar index uh dropped to fresh three your lows down tenth of a percentage point. I’m down to $97.25, so the dollar is beginning to weaken substantially relative to the overall market. Bitcoin up to $107, $600. That’s basically up about $200 this weekend or about two-tenths of a percentage point. Crude oil is basically flat on Friday. Natural gas was up big, up about 6% or about 21 cents, $3.73. Crude Oil sitting at $65.52. XOP, which is our EMP securities contract, was down about half a percentage point. You know, I think, you know, a lot of where the balance right now is, you I think the geopolitical stuff has calmed down for a bit in terms of the imminent war with Iran. You know? Thank goodness. So now we move back into what I would call a fundamental discussion of, okay, we know OPEC plus is now planning on increasing another 411,000 barrels in August. If we don’t see any major supply disruptions going on in the Middle Well, then all of a sudden, now we’re back. In this, well, we still are in an oversupplied market, you know, yes, domestic, domestic supply and domestic crude oil storage is down, but that doesn’t mean overall global storage is down. And if in contrary global storage is up. So again, we are in a oversupply market, meaning prices are going to be impacted from that. And, you know, there are four delegates last week and this was on Thursday. From OPEC plus who represent them said that their goal is to boost that production by that 411,000 barrels. You know, I think it’s, it’s going to, you know, it, it it’s gonna be interesting rice I, we, we love rystad, Javiv Shah. This was his quote. The market is almost entirely shrugged off geopolitical risk premiums for almost a week as we return to a fundamentals driven market. It’s almost like they listen to the show. We love our friends over at rice dad. So it’s it’s. Going to be interesting. You know, we’re still seeing China importing Iranian oil, which means that’s still flowing naturally. [00:21:56][162.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:21:56] I think the other big thing Stu to point out that we covered on NewsBe was rig count. It was down seven week over week, which is another huge drop down to 547. That’s for the week of June 27th. And it’s its lowest since October of 2021, which is unbelievable. Oil rigs dropped by six, gas rigs, dropped by two. And it, I mean, it’s pretty unbelievable. You see the majority of the rigs right now are operating in the Permian. You have very few in the DJ, a little bit in the Bakken, a couple going on offshore, but I mean, really the majority of the rigs are in the permian, which is unbelievable. I highly recommend guys checking out our oil and gas rig count breakdown. Again, the, you know, when you look at inventory, we have this great analysis here on, on inventory trends. I think the issue is when you know we get, you know, why aren’t people worried about it? We saw for the last three weeks, we’ve seen three straight drops in crude oil inventories in the United States. Why hasn’t that affected prices? Well, because again, we don’t just operate on a U.S. Basis. Yes, it’s nice when the USA has inventories, but just because we don’t have inventories here doesn’t mean that the rest of the world doesn’t have inventories. And I think again, I’m going to hammer, hammer, this point home. We are in an oversupplied market, meaning if we are returning to fundamentals and the geopolitical premiums are being stripped out of We have to understand that we’re an environment which prices are going to stay depressed. So I think it’s, you know, it’s going to be very interesting to see how it goes. [00:23:27][90.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:23:28] We also did see US frac count spread that dropped by three. So people are even shedding frac rigs. I mean, if you’re, if want to go get it completed well right now, you have absolutely your pick of the litter when it comes to when it comes to the frat cruise. And that’s really it, Stu. There was nothing much interesting. You know, we talked a little bit last week about the Shell BB stuff. It’d be very interesting to see where that goes, but that’s at least dead for the next six months, barring a third company coming out of the blue and making an offer based upon UK regulations. So I think it’s going to be interesting. My favorite part of the Monday show, Stu, what are you worried about this week. [00:24:01][33.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:24:02] Well, I’m going to be curious because by the time we record this to the big, beautiful bill, I am going to curious to see if president Trump can get past the parliamentarian that has been there for so long that I’m going to honest with you, our Senate leader, leader Thun should have overridden and it is pretty amazing that we have a deep state parliamentarian, that is not controllable. [00:24:29][27.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:24:30] No, I agree. I completely agree. It’s I think I think this week we’re going to see a lot of political stuff that moves in. I think whatever happens with these subsidies is going to drive it. Actually, it’s going to force a lot of capital back into the oil and gas space from a macro level. So it could be very interesting, guys. But with that, we’re gonna let you let you get out of here. Start your week. Thank you for checking us out. World’s greatest website, Energy Newsbeat.com for Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:24:30][0.0][1445.6]
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