You don’t want to miss this episode of the International blockbuster podcast Energy Realities, with Tammy Nemeth, Irina Slav, David Blackmon and Stu Turley. The geopolitical risk to oil and pricing is unknown, and how is the world going to handle the issue? Will Israel strike the Iranian oil fields?
Highlights of the Podcast
00:10 – Introduction
02:47 – Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions
03:52 – Global Oil Demand
06:30 – Iranian Oil Exports and Strategic Risks
09:28 – Algorithmic Trading and Oil Price Volatility
18:30 – Global Energy Shifts
22:45 – China’s Refineries and Oil Export
26:37 – California sues Exxon over Global Plastic Pollution
32:44 – Government pledges £22bn for carbon capture and storage technology in net zero drive
37:50 – Big oil urges Trump not gut Biden’s Climate Law
42:32 – The 2024 disinflation lesson: ignore oil at your peril: McGeever
45:25 – Vance/Walz debate did nothing to inform voters on energy issues.
47:01 – John Kerry’s comments about our First Amendment to the Constitution
54:17 – What will happen to oil prices if Israel attacks Iran oil installations?
International Author writing about energy, mining, and geopolitical issues. Bulgaria
Principal at DB Energy Advisors, energy author, and podcast host.Principal at DB Energy Advisors, energy author, and podcast host.
Energy Consulting Specialist
President, and CEO, Sandstone Group, Podcast Host
Where is the Oil price going from here?
Stuart Turley [00:00:10] All right. Good morning, everybody. It is Monday and we have an absolute fabulous show. Welcome to the Energy Realities podcast. We come from around the world. I've got Irina Slav. She is a world renowned energy writer from Bulgaria. Good morning, Almighty Irina.
Irina Slav [00:00:35] Good morning, Stu.
Stuart Turley [00:00:37] All right. And then next, coming around the corner, we have the David Blackmon. I mean, not just a David Blackmon. We have the David Blackmon.
David Blackmon [00:00:46] Yes, I'm the only one.
Stuart Turley [00:00:47] And the only one. Thank goodness we could not handle any more. How are you? And you're in Texas, right?
David Blackmon [00:00:54] No, I'm just fine in Texas. I'm always fine in Texas. As long as I'm in Texas, I'm okay.
Stuart Turley [00:00:59] Good. Good. Your blood pressure medicine. Okay. You're okay. You're not going to stroke.
David Blackmon [00:01:03] I took a double dose this morning because I knew I was going to be dealing with you.
Stuart Turley [00:01:07] Well, actually, thank you very much. But I've got a I've got your video you sent in on John Kerry. So everybody hold on. We've got some words from him. Wisdom, I think, is what we call that. But we starting.
David Blackmon [00:01:22] With that, we're not.
Stuart Turley [00:01:23] No, no, no. I'm just trying to tease it up for and saying it.
David Blackmon [00:01:26] Tease it up.
Stuart Turley [00:01:27] That this this man needs to be run out with the U.N.? I think John Kerry and the U.N. need to be run out of the US. Personal opinion. All right. And then we have the Tammy Nemeth.. I mean, she's with the Nemeth report, so she might as well be known as the Tammy Nemeth. Welcome, Tammy. And you're in the UK today, correct?
Tammy Nemeth [00:01:49] Right. Yeah, that is correct. I'm in the UK where it's cloudy and raining.
Stuart Turley [00:01:54] Wow.
David Blackmon [00:01:56] as it should be.
Stuart Turley [00:01:57] Raining in the UK. I did not know that.
Tammy Nemeth [00:02:00] I know. So Regis.
Stuart Turley [00:02:04] Well, I'll tell you today, guys, we have got a heck of a lineup here. Where do the oil prices go from here? And I think we're all kind of waiting in bated breath what's going to happen in in the last several years, we've seen that oil prices, the the old guard or the supply and demand has been thrown out. We have geopolitical baked into things, but now everybody's waiting around and saying, is Israel going to attack Iran's oil supply and is Joe Biden going to allow it or is he going to help? You know, I don't I have no clue. Irina, what are your thoughts?
Irina Slav [00:02:47] I have as much of a clue as you do Stu, to be honest. But yeah, I think it's. It's rather cute how suddenly traders realize that geopolitics matter. You know, because they have been ignoring geopolitics for about a year and now suddenly, wait, oil prices might actually go up. Yes. They're actually going up already. Maybe they'll go higher unless we focus on Chinese demand. If we focus on Chinese oil demand. Prices are going to go down because Chinese oil demand is doing so badly. I think that's why we say that this fixation is over focused thinking about Chinese oil demand and nothing else entirely as if the rest of the world doesn't matter. It's just Chinese oil demand. Just because this is the biggest thing for the U.S. It is. It is important. But so what? You have a whole world that uses oil.
Stuart Turley [00:03:52] Right.
Irina Slav [00:03:53] And some parts of this world are using more oil than before. And generally, oil demand is growing. It's not falling. Whatever happens in China, global oil demand is falling. All it takes is the threat of supply disruption and everyone wakes up. Colin Michaud Yes, Again.
Stuart Turley [00:04:17] I loved your article and we gave you a shout out, Irina, in your article. Bad Policies Leave you as Vulnerable to Middle East Oil Crisis published on Oilprice.com on October 6th. Outstanding article. Well done.
David Blackmon [00:04:33] Yes.
Irina Slav [00:04:34] Thank you.
Stuart Turley [00:04:35] So everybody go read that because I've already stolen it. Republished it out. So great. Well, David, what do you think is gonna happen here?
David Blackmon [00:04:47] Well, you just, you know. So we've had what we're up, I think, about 12% now, 13% in the last five trading days. And and that, of course, was tipped off when I wrote a piece last week in Forbes saying the price of oil is about to go down. Well, it went up 12%. So that's how it always happens with me. You know, whether it's going to go further than this. You know, I think it obviously is going to as long as the prospect of a major retaliation by Israel for last week's missile assault by Iran is out there in the news. Because what would happen if it were Israel retaliates, they're probably going to go after Iran's ability to export and refine crude oil and maybe even some of their production sites in addition to their nuclear sites, which, you know, given the way the Mossad works, you know, those nuclear sites are probably already wired up to be detonated, just like all the pagers in Lebanon were a couple of weeks ago. So if that happens, if a major attack by Iran or a counter assault by Israel excuse me, on Iran happens, you're going to have a pretty dramatic stoppage of oil exports out of that country. And right now, Iran's exporting over 3 million barrels of oil per day. And then the other prospect that's out there would be a general shut down and exports out of the Persian Gulf if Iran decides to activate its its toy navy and try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, then that, you know, takes 20, 30% of global supplies off the market for some period of time.
Stuart Turley [00:06:30] You've been watching Trump too much. Now you're starting to talk like Trump. When he calls you called Iranian, you hurt their feelings. Mean tweets.
David Blackmon [00:06:40] Well, it. Is a toy navy. And I don't know why the United States and its allies in the region have allowed it to exist. Frankly, I mean, I, I think that that would probably be another target that Israel would focus on with a counter. So, you know, and that's that's the whole thing here. And it's why over the last year, you haven't seen a big spike in oil prices because, you know, despite the October. Today is October 7th, the one year anniversary of that horrible event a year ago. And but oil prices didn't explode when that happened. Why? Because there was no threat to exports out of the Persian Gulf. And that's the key to everything here. So, you know, I just think that we we. Iran canceled all flights, commercial aircraft flights yesterday, anticipating a counter assault by Israel. And so I think everyone's on pins and needles expecting that to happen. And we'll just have to see how extensive it is if Israel decides to do that. And then we're probably going to know. I mean, if there's a shutdown of Iran's capacity, then I wrote a piece and I'll I'll shut up after this. I think it was a Reuters Friday claiming that OPEC has all the spare capacity to fill in, you know, whatever Iranian oil gets taken off the market. That is a very specious proposition. Certainly, Saudi Arabia has some level of spare capacity. There are almost no other OPEC countries that have any spare capacity other than Iran. Right. So, I mean, other than Saudi Arabia. So if that happens, then you're talking about Saudi Arabia being in complete control of the global market at that point. And I don't think Saudi Arabia's going to just open the spigot to the full extent it can to keep oil prices down. That's completely counter to their own national self-interest. So, I mean, that's just not going to happen. And so it just really all depends on what Israel does here.
Irina Slav [00:08:54] Yeah. If I just add, you know, OPEC, whatever spare capacity OPEC has, it has to use it to fill essential supply gap from Iran. It doesn't want to use it. It won't use it. And we may be they assume that people will say, but OPEC has this purpose. Yes. But it's bad.
David Blackmon [00:09:18] Right, Exactly. And they want to keep some spare capacity.
Irina Slav [00:09:21] Yeah, probably.
David Blackmon [00:09:24] Yeah. Yeah. So anyway, that's. That's my $0.02.
Stuart Turley [00:09:28] Good morning, Lord Bailey.
David Blackmon [00:09:30] Hi, Lord Bailey.
Tammy Nemeth [00:09:31] Morning. Robert DeDomenico
Stuart Turley [00:09:38] We love Robert.
David Blackmon [00:09:42] Ok Cool. Good. Everybody should access Robert's presentation next Monday, October 14th.
Stuart Turley [00:09:48] All right. And if you have comments, we love heckling, especially David. David thrives on.
David Blackmon [00:09:55] Saying, Yeah, I live for it.
Stuart Turley [00:09:57] Well, Tammy, what do you think?
Tammy Nemeth [00:10:04] right.
Stuart Turley [00:10:04] That was so catlike.
Tammy Nemeth [00:10:07] Very much so. Maybe I'm channeling the cat sitting here beside me. So what's interesting about oil prices, especially, I would say in the past 3 or 4 years, has been this rather. There's lots of different elements that go into oil pricing these days. And I think number one is the confidence game element. And so, you know, people say something or whatever, and then there's a knee jerk reaction and maybe that that spikes prices a little bit. And then the other element is that there's a lot of short termism there. So people are looking at what's going to happen today, tomorrow, whatever, all short term and not looking at, you know, what are the sort of long term contracts? Are there any long term contracts being played out right now or are they just waiting to see maybe it'll go cheaper or like, who knows, Right. And then. I think another element that doesn't get discussed enough and maybe I just don't understand how all that trading works, but I keep having this sense that there is an algorithmic sort of. Play here where there's algorithms that are adjusting things because there's there's no reason why prices didn't spike last year except if it's algorithms doing things or there's other groups who are trying to keep the price lower than it should be or whatever. Maybe it's related to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They still haven't refilled it. There's some discussion there about I guess they approved a contract for 6 million barrels, which will get filled between February and May next year. Year 6 million. But they're down 185 million. So it's literally a drop in the bucket. But we're all supposed to be like, ooh, okay, they're buying, but they want to buy too much because then it will drive prices up and that's bad. And then the other thing that I thought was really interesting over the past year is that you have all these attacks on the choke points on the sea transport lanes where you have the Houthis attacking. You've got these different the Iranians are attacking different tanker ships and so on. Why doesn't that spike the price? So you have a bottleneck. Oil is not moving and you still don't have a spike in price, which then if you're if you're thinking about, well, why is this happening? Maybe it has more to do with the algorithms at play. Other people try to manipulate the market. I don't know. But it makes no sense. The normal indicators that would have the price go up or down don't seem to be in play that much.
Irina Slav [00:12:48] Isn't Chinese oil demand? I kid you not. It is a fixation. Almost since the start of this year. You know, last year, China had records, oil demand, record imports. But this year, amazingly, they have not remained at record levels, which never happens in history. That's never happened before. Every single Reuters or F.T. or Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal report on oil prices either leads with concern about Chinese oil demand or it's up there somewhere in the text, if not in the headline. Every single report I read these things on a daily basis I have never seen. Well, I have not seen a report lacking a reference to Chinese oil demand for months. And this is what the algorithms take up because they are being fed by humans, are programed by humans. And this is why nothing happens with oil prices, regardless of, you know, how supply is going. And what Zanny said about the Red Sea situation, this situation, this so-called crisis has diverted a lot of traffic away. This has added to global oil demand because ships have to go much longer way. To get from China, from Asia to Europe and vice versa. And it hasn't made a splash at all in the news or in demand projections. Now we remain on the same path of forecasting Chinese oil demand and the energy transition, of course.
Tammy Nemeth [00:14:33] I feel like it. I think you're right. And I think that won't change until after the election.
Irina Slav [00:14:41] That's a very good point.
David Blackmon [00:14:43] I think that's true. Yeah. I mean, the Biden administration has a real self-interest in keeping oil prices and thus gasoline prices in the United States as low as it can until after the election. And then, you know, things are probably going to change. The prevailing narrative in the media will certainly change because the Democrats I mean, the media just basically gets up in the morning, reads a Democrat talking points, and that becomes their news stories for the day. So that will change after November 5th and there will be new items added to the narrative. The point about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is outstanding, really relevant here. We talked about this two years ago when Biden started drawing it down. We you know, I think we all agreed that there would never be an effort by this administration to refill it. They don't care about energy security in Washington, in this White House. And. And so, yeah, I mean, we've seen these announcements periodically. They're going to buy a few million barrels here and there and put it back in. And Reuters makes a big deal out of NAFTA, goes crazy. And then actually, the repurchases don't happen for the most part. I mean, I think two repurchases have happened and about half a dozen have been canceled. Because why? Because market factors changed between now and February when this 6 million barrels is supposed to go through. Market factors are going to change again because all markets change every week. And so there will be an excuse, assuming Harris is elected, there will be an excuse by the Energy Department not to go through with this repurchase because they don't care. Their goal is to keep as much oil on the market as possible in order to keep prices down. And it's strictly a political calculation, and that's what every policy decision this administration has made has been based on.
Stuart Turley [00:16:41] Couple of things. In 2023, Iran's oil exports were 91% to China and 7% to Syria and 2% to Venezuela.
David Blackmon [00:16:59] to Venezuela,
Stuart Turley [00:17:03] to Venezuela. And in 2017, under the Trump, there were 26% was going to China, India, South Korea, Europe, the UAE and others. Now, here's where you take a look at China. Everybody is just like looking at falsely, potentially the manipulation of the oil markets. I think it's being manipulated. Look at the jobs market. Look at look at do I trust numbers anymore? No. But China has been buying everything they can to go to their strategic oil reserves. Why? Countries buy oil when they're going to war or they are smart enough to fill their strategic oil reserves. Irina, you bring up some great points on that on the strategic oil reserve. We have, what, 19 days available to us. But the problem with our strategic oil reserve is that it's crumbling and failing. The storage salt bins that we use or shovel caves are failing and you will not be able to use many of those again. So the cost to put in new storage is going to be prohibitive. It's going to be really, really ugly.
David Blackmon [00:18:30] Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:18:32] Yeah. Because to go to China's thank you for for bringing that point up about China's strategic petroleum reserve. That's where a lot of their oil purchases have been going over the past year, year and a half now. And I mean, why wouldn't you buy and fill your SPR when the why wouldn't you if the price is low. Right. And the price is because.
Stuart Turley [00:18:54] They print money Tammy, so they don't care.
Tammy Nemeth [00:18:57] They don't care. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:18:59] And what they're doing is they're getting ready for war smartly. They are getting ready for war. Here's where it is also becoming very important is that China I mean, excuse me, Japan and Russia are signing, as I've been talking about this for a while. They're looking at signing more agreements to pull away from the United States in the main area for oil and natural gas for for China. And it's being delivered through pipelines outside of the US's ability to control it. So with the article, you know, bad policies impact generational geopolitical decisions. It actually almost made sense. All right.
David Blackmon [00:19:57] And I want to make one more. One more. Point, I guess, about this is I think oil prices are going higher for the short term. And assuming we avoid World War three, somehow they're probably going to go lower in the long term. Because in the long term, there's a lot of supply that's not on the market right now. There's a lot of supply from Libya. It's not on the market right now because of, you know, the constant civil war situation happening in Libya. There's a lot of supply that's going to come online from West Africa, offshore, which is going into a big boom time, South Africa offshore, that's going to go into a big boom time. Guyana, Suriname are going to be major oil producing regions in the near future. Already Guyana already is, and the Permian Basin is just going to keep chugging along here in the U.S. And we're going to continue to be the world's largest producer here in the United States. And so eventually, assuming we avoid World War three and by the way, despite what we talk about here, a lot of times the the growth of electric vehicles and probably hydrogen cars to some extent in the future is going to cut into demand in the transportation space for oil to probably a much lower extent than the pushers of the transition thing. But it will cut into it eventually. So in the long term, probably we're going to be looking at lower oil prices no matter what OPEC and OPEC plus do. And but in the near term, I think clearly we're going to have higher prices than we have today for at least the next year.
Stuart Turley [00:21:46] That's an excellent point, David.
Irina Slav [00:21:48] Those lower prices do happen to materialize over the long term. Certain governments must stop trying to squeeze out the industry and with it the supply it provides.
David Blackmon [00:22:03] Right. I agree.
Stuart Turley [00:22:04] Irina
Irina Slav [00:22:06] Maybe they will stop squeezing when they find out it's not work. I mean, China again, China is the clearest example. China is the biggest market in the world. China has. Massive number of EVs on the road. China's oil demand is rising. Yes, a lot of this comes from industry, but it also comes from transport.
David Blackmon [00:22:30] Yes.
Irina Slav [00:22:31] So if EVs are not making a dent, they're not leading to a slump in Chinese oil demand whatsoever. Sinopec. I think.
David Blackmon [00:22:39] Yeah, it's a slowing of the growth rate, right. Yeah.
Irina Slav [00:22:42] It is still growing.
David Blackmon [00:22:44] Right. Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:22:45] Well, so that's a really great point because if you look at the number of refineries in the world and where they're located, how much of it is oil being processed in China and then distributed into the region. So even if they might have EVs or whatever, that's lowering their own demand. And I would I would question that. They do export a lot of it. And if you look at, for example, the the statistical data for the Chinese diesel production, for example, it's increased. It's increased at almost every refinery in China. So you can say that their oil demand is decreasing. And I kind of question those statistics. The fact is that there are increasing the production of product, which they then either are using or like I said, they're they're distributing it into the region. And, you know, you can talk about having EVs as as trucks like lorries or whatever for transport, but they're really not that good. And I wouldn't be surprised if China's using EVs for the urban areas for personal transport. But when it comes to moving goods around, it would be rail and and diesel run trucks, rigs, lorries, whatever.
David Blackmon [00:24:00] Right. Because they're not stupid enough to invest billions and billions of dollars in electric 18 wheelers like we are in the United States. You know, they they understand that EVs aren't going to run that piece of the transportation puzzle if he's only solve the who's funding my grift problem. Yes, Robert, you're right about that.
Stuart Turley [00:24:23] China is seeing political tensions and sustainability goals are reshaping its energy landscape clearly.
Tammy Nemeth [00:24:32] Usually there's a question mark.
David Blackmon [00:24:35] But. But not. I mean, they're still using record amount of coal this year. Record amount of oil this year. And that's going to continue. I mean, I don't really see that ending anytime soon because their economy still growing. We talk about, you know, slowing demand from China, but it's like the slowing demand from a from an economy that's been growing at 7 to 9% for the last 25 years. That's now growing at 5%. Okay. Yeah. You know, they're not in a recession. It's still growing and it's going to continue to grow. And so it just and then, you know, the whole Asian region, I mean, my God, Indonesia and the Philippines and South Vietnam and we're not South Vietnam excuse me, South Korea, you know, all these rapidly just mushrooming in India. Their economy is mushrooming. And so it's all going to create and continue to create growing demand for crude oil. So I just but at the same time, I think we're in a renaissance time for production of crude oil globally. Look at what BP announced today. You know, they're ending this stupid 20, 30 goal with 40% emissions reductions. And, you know, they're stopping investing in renewables because they're not profitable and they're going right back to being an oil company again because they want to be competitive, just like Shell is doing. And the reason they're doing that is because there's growing demand for crude oil and there's going to continue to be growing demand for crude oil.
Stuart Turley [00:26:14] Well, with that, I think let's take a look at our stories here. Tammy, you're first out of the book again. I wonder how that happens?
Tammy Nemeth [00:26:23] I don't know. I think it's because my name is first on there something. So my first story is about it's from the Institute of Energy Research. They have this great piece on the context of California suing Exxon over over plastic recycling, really. And it's the most hilarious thing, this lawsuit, because basically they're saying that Exxon isn't recycling fast enough, everybody else. It's just the most bizarre thing ever. It's like, okay, these are the materials we're making and we're going to recycle and then turn it back into these other things. And the California lawsuit is basically saying you're not doing it fast enough, you know? So it's a typical California thing. I really encourage people to take a look at this. It's a short little backgrounder by the Institute for International Energy Research at ICR. It's really good. And yeah, so that's about that story. I'll leave you I'll leave it to the people to, to read it and, and, and see how absurd it is. But I'm not surprised that, you know, the the California government would do this and given that Carmelo's from there. So yeah.
David Blackmon [00:27:42] They have it's the suit is being brought by an extremely ambitious, politically ambitious attorney general. Where have we heard that before? From California. Who is using Exxon as as a really easy boogeyman in which Exxon Exxon is the biggest recycler of plastics on the face of the earth, folks? Yeah, there's more of this than anybody. But they're suing Exxon because Exxon's an easy target and it's really despicable.
Stuart Turley [00:28:12] And onto and the hypocrisy, David, is just despicable when you consider Newsom is trying to kill the United States oil production on the West Coast, even Kern County and which has been producing oil for ever. And their import list is a who's who of terrorism in supporting all of the other terrorists. So they are doing more damage to the global environment by their horrific energy policies. And if.
Tammy Nemeth [00:28:54] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:28:55] I mean, if if Governor Newsom, you ever loved to come on this podcast, that'd be great. Please do not take a bath in the bay. There would be an oil slick of horrific biblical proportions. Sorry
Tammy Nemeth [00:29:07] if I can add to this one. You know, they also say accuse Exxon of misleading the public about recycling. And what worries me is how how they've been successful in suing companies like Couric for their they said that their little pods that you put in the little coffee machine, that they're recyclable and they are they are two there is just two recyclers who said we're not going to recycle it because it's too expensive and because they they claim that that Couric was misleading the public because not everyone would recycle it. And unfortunately, they never fought it. They just took the hit. They paid the fine. The Securities and Exchange Commission ruled about a week ago saying that, yeah, that was a violation. They misled investors about the recyclability of of the pods. But it's like. But they are recyclable. Yeah. And what bothers me is
David Blackmon [00:30:10] there's no market for it. Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:30:11] Yeah. There's no market is too expensive or, you know, whatever. But the point was that it is recyclable. That's not misleading. And yet here they I think this that'll be used as a precedent in this case because unless you spell, spell it out, you know, letter by letter of what something does or does not do, they'll accuse you of being misleading. And unfortunately, the entire sort of SEC climate disclosures, it's all like that. You'll be accused of misleading people if you don't if you don't spell absolutely everything right,
Stuart Turley [00:30:48] describing marriage. My wife, I mean, as soon as you say I do, it's whether whether or not you may or may not be accused of any. Sorry.
David Blackmon [00:30:58] So this is probably the same thing happens in Bulgaria and the UK and Canada. I'm sure it happens in Canada. Every city I've lived in and I've lived in five different cities here in Texas, you know, has had these recycling programs where you get a separate garbage ban to put all your glass in your plastics and your paper products and and then you're just waste in the other one, right? Well, everyone them is a complete fraud, okay. Because virtually all of that stuff is just going out to the landfill and getting poured in with the stuff in the other bin. Why? Because there's no market. The market for recycled plastics and paper and glass is extremely small. And and so, I mean, if Rob Bonta is going to sue Exxon, why isn't he suing San Francisco and Los Angeles, the city governments, for doing exactly the same thing, overpromising about recycling? Okay. This is just ludicrous and it's despicable and it's cynical and it's a horrific misallocation of resources. And this guy deserves to be hounded out of office rather than elected. He's he's going to be Gavin Newsom's successor and he's adopted Gavin Newsom's hairdo. If you've seen photos of him, he's got exactly the same background. I mean, it's just this guy's a creep.
Stuart Turley [00:32:21] You know, I just it dawned on me what they're doing. They are going to be the California Strategic Oil Reserve. If we ever get into a problem, they just go into a dunk tank and poof, you got all the oil you need. Jamie, what was your other one with this carbon capture thing here?
Tammy Nemeth [00:32:39] Right. So and is that the. No. Okay. So this one, the government pledges 22 billion pounds. This is the UK government for carbon capture and storage technology and net zero drive so that they've been talking about doing this carbon capture project for quite a long time. And the the former Conservative government had said that they were going to go ahead with this, but then the election was called. And so BP, which is involved in a few other oil and gas companies and energy providers, were uncertain it was okay. So what's happening? So the the new Labor government has confirmed that it will pony up the 22 billion for this for this operation. And what I found so interesting about the story is that it's not that the technology is unproven. They've been doing carbon capture for a very long time. It's been proven to work in Canada, in Saskatchewan, and they use it for enhanced oil recovery in in lots of different places in North America. It's really, really helpful for for. And secondary and tertiary recovery and whatnot. So it's not like they haven't they can't use this technology or that or that. It's new. What is new sort of is storing it to keep it so that it doesn't go anywhere. And there's been quite a lot of research done in Canada with this and and where it's just stored in the ground. Now, the thing is, you can do it, but it costs money. It's expensive. And who should pay? And ultimately, the environmentalists are saying, well, companies should pay. And we actually we shouldn't even spend any money to do it because then the companies will allow we'll be able to keep producing and people will continue to use oil and gas. It's like, well, wait a second. If this is net zero and it's okay to capture the CO2, then why shouldn't we be able to still use oil and gas if you can capture the CO2 from the environmental perspective. But there they just complain about it endlessly because they don't want oil and gas to exist at all. And if this is some way to allow the companies to continue, the environmentalists don't want it. And then, as I said, it becomes a matter of who pays. And so the government wants the companies to do this. So, unfortunately, should it be that government has to pony up some of the money? I mean, a lot of the companies have already paid a lot of money in development, like billions. And this is the government paying its share. And so if we still want to have petrol vehicles or diesel vehicles and so on and have it not be an extortionate price, then this is the kind of price you pay for it. So I know there's a lot of people who think that carbon capture is a bad idea and I agree. I think it's an expensive waste of money. But if that's the only way that you can keep going, then unfortunately, that's kind of what we have to do.
Stuart Turley [00:35:43] Tammy, Gayle asking who published the article.
David Blackmon [00:35:46] I can't read.
Tammy Nemeth [00:35:48] Let me look at my links here. It was from Sky News.
Stuart Turley [00:35:55] Sky News.
Irina Slav [00:35:56] Well, a of a lot of agency with a lot of big news.
David Blackmon [00:36:02] Yeah. So guess who the biggest guess which company has captured more carbon over the world in history than the rest of the world combined? What would you guess? Exxon, ExxonMobil. Exxon Mobil. So this is one of the main reasons why the environmentalists hate carbon capture. The entire concept of it is because ExxonMobil's the main company that does it and has had the most success with it. So I just thought I'd make that point.
Tammy Nemeth [00:36:35] Yeah. And there's been a lot of smaller companies like in in Canada that use it for enhanced oil recovery like Whitecap resources and whatnot.
David Blackmon [00:36:42] So yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:36:45] Patrick, I love this. God bless Patrick here. What would they do with the carbon when they recapture it? Recycle it? Well you know there's there's CCU has which is and utilization. They'll put it in your coke.
David Blackmon [00:37:03] So they can make I mean they can make materials out of it, they can make bricks and paving materials and. There's a market.
Stuart Turley [00:37:13] But for Coca Cola drinkers or Pepsi drinkers, I use Coke for one thing. Cleaning my rusted tools. Do not drink it if it were clean and rusted shovel. There is absolutely no reason to put it in your body.
David Blackmon [00:37:29] Yeah. Nothing takes corrosion off the posts on your car battery. Better than Coca-Cola.
Stuart Turley [00:37:35] Is absolutely good. Irina, good job Tammy.
Irina Slav [00:37:41] Right. My first story is a sort of continuation to to Tammy. Sorry about that. Big oil urges Trump, not gut Biden's climate law. This is where companies have come to. They are spending billions on carbon capture and hydrogen and whatever else that has the label of gray. And now they're worried that a Trump presidency might put an end to the funding. But what was most interesting to me is that they have kinds of these companies that are betting so big on hydrogen and carbon capture because they're forced to. In a way. But they also want to take advantage of the opportunities given to them. They can go it alone, even with their record profits. Yeah. And all the jazz, they have their core business. They can go with you. And why should they? I mean, there's billions for so-called green projects, so why not get a piece of that? And I am especially happy that this is bound to be making the environmentalists really, really mad. So well done, Big oil. What about the November elections? I mean, the very thought that a company such as Chevron or Occidental has access to the same funds that, you know, an ad maker all said has been maddening. And I'm loving it.
David Blackmon [00:39:17] Yeah, me, too.
Tammy Nemeth [00:39:18] Well, I could add there that I think that for some environmental groups who want to see the demise of Big Oil, they're okay with that because they know that it hooks them in and then it makes the that big oil do this urge Trump not to gut the climate law because now it's like, well, you got to keep it. You got to keep it. We've made
Irina Slav [00:39:40] But they would never be so reliant on these firms as the green companies because they have their actual business, which is producing more. Yes.
Tammy Nemeth [00:39:49] Right. But you have big oil basically defending it on behalf of the renewable companies.
Irina Slav [00:39:55] Yeah, kind of. But if you look deeper, which I'm sure they don't do, this is why they're happy that they don't see it from the angle that I said from that big oil is eating into the money for the transition and this is ensuring it's longer survival.
David Blackmon [00:40:16] Well, I've got good news for big oil that wants to keep the climate law. It's not going anywhere regardless of who wins the election. But what will change is if if Trump wins the election, there will be no effort because you would have to have a a filibuster proof majority in the Senate to repeal it. That's not going to happen. So there'll be no effort really to repeal anything in the Inflation Reduction Act, which is a tragedy for our society, frankly. But what you won't have is another new inflation reduction act anytime in the next four years. Whereas if Harris gets elected, you'll probably have two more of them and inflation will go up to 20% instead of 10%. I mean, that's that's the reality here. So you guys at the big oil companies, you don't have to worry about your subsidies and tax breaks. They'll still be in place. And that's the main thing. By the way, the enhanced investment tax credit is the main thing the oil companies are really worried about keeping. And I'll shut up now.
Stuart Turley [00:41:20] This is a great point. Got to go. This is from Patrick. One last thing. Can you imagine what the rescue effort from Hurricane Helene would be like if they had to use EVs? Holy smokes. Our prayer and our heart and prayer go out for all the folks that have been impacted by in the mountain areas. And there the rescue is just horrific. Yeah. Yeah. But I also have seen so many of the saltwater. In fact, I saw the scientist standing behind his guys saying, if you have an EV that has been saltwater near the batteries, they became a time bomb. So it's kind of like retro. And if you have an EV, park it down the street or at your neighbor or your in-laws house, it'll burn their house down. I don't know.
Tammy Nemeth [00:42:16] Stu your bad.
Stuart Turley [00:42:19] Well, you just. You don't know my in-laws. David.
Tammy Nemeth [00:42:24] We. Irina you had a.
David Blackmon [00:42:25] Has one
Stuart Turley [00:42:26] Irina has another one. Sorry. My bad
Irina Slav [00:42:28] is just stating the obvious news. The 2024 disinflation. This disinflation really ignore oil at your peril. In which story? The author makes the point that we have become so preoccupied with things like digitalization and AI and the service industry that we have forgotten that oil prices have a bearing on inflation. Really? Some of us have not forgotten it.
Tammy Nemeth [00:43:00] Yes.
Irina Slav [00:43:02] He he makes this point is alarming because really it is possible that a lot of people, including analysts, are ignoring the role of oil prices in inflation.
Tammy Nemeth [00:43:16] Yep. Wow. Is that even one of the indicators for inflation? Do they did they take that one out of the calculation?
Irina Slav [00:43:23] It should.
David Blackmon [00:43:24] No, they didn't. They? Well, they took food prices out. I think.
Irina Slav [00:43:32] So what you
David Blackmon [00:43:32] You know what maybe energy prices have been excluded from?
Stuart Turley [00:43:36] I don't think they have been, David, from what I understand, it's a different calculation. But when you take a look at the average energy prices in the United States, they're 30% average across.
David Blackmon [00:43:49] Now, the way gas prices are up $0.20 in the last week here in the United States, the average for regular a week ago was about 2 98. Today, it's 317. And it'll keep going up.
Stuart Turley [00:44:04] Yes. And then we have Hurricane Milton coming in at us and Florida. It's just bad. Our prayers are coming in. It could be a it's going to take yet. Right.
Irina Slav [00:44:17] And people stocking up on gasoline.
Stuart Turley [00:44:20] And generators.
Irina Slav [00:44:22] Why? Yeah, why solar panels, people.
Stuart Turley [00:44:28] Well, here's, you know. Okay, David.
David Blackmon [00:44:32] Yeah. You don't want to get me started talking about Hurricane Milton. What I'll say about Hurricane Milton is I want everyone to go out and do a little research and find out when the last time was. We had a major hurricane build in the western extent of the Gulf of Mexico and take a trajectory straight to Florida, purely an eastern path.
Stuart Turley [00:44:55] It has never happened.
David Blackmon [00:44:56] In the north.
Stuart Turley [00:44:57] Go ahead and share everybody.
David Blackmon [00:44:58] From about that last mile away.
Stuart Turley [00:45:01] David, I got this. This just came in on the wire. You. Evacuate the gas powered carrier. So that's how you tie it. Handle that bad dog. Sorry. Okay.
David Blackmon [00:45:24] Okay. The Vance Walz debate did nothing to inform voters on energy issues. I just wanted to point this out. In the debate last week, we had these two moderators from CBS News who were partnering with Tim Walz in the debate. They asked zero questions about energy. Of course, the one question they asked about the tragedy unfolding in North Carolina, they cast it in terms of climate change.
Tammy Nemeth [00:45:54] Of course.
David Blackmon [00:45:55] Of course. The result of the hurricane that picked out only Republican counties to devastate across three states somehow was created by climate change, which is utter nonsense, but that's how they did it. So I just think it's it's the whole model for these debates in the United States, these presidential vice presidential debates is a farce. It's just gotten to where there's no effort by the moderators to maintain any semblance of balance. And then couching a question about one of the biggest human tragedies in the United States in decades in terms of Al Gore's fantasies about the trace element of plant food in the atmosphere is despicable disregard for all this human suffering that's happening. And I just think the Republican Party really has got to stop agreeing to do these things. So that's that's the one point I wanted to make about that. The second one, play this video Stu of Mr. Kerry's comments about our First Amendment to the Constitution.
Video Speaker John Kerry [00:47:07] Dislike of and anguish over social. Media is just growing and growing and growing as part of our problem, particularly in democracies. In terms of building consensus around any issue. It's really hard to govern today. You can't. You know. There's no the referees. We used to. Have to determine. What's a fact and what isn't. In fact, that kind of, you know, been eviscerated. To a certain degree. And people. Go and that people self-select where they go. For their. News or for their information, and then you just get into a vicious cycle. So it's really, really hard, much harder to build consensus today than at any time in the 45, 50. Years I've been involved in this. And and I you know, there's a lot of discussion now about how you curb those entities in order to. Guarantee that you're going to have, you know, some accountability of facts, etc.. But look, if people. Go to only one source and the source they go to is sick and one has an agenda and they're putting out disinformation like CBS, the First Amendment stands as a major block to the.
[00:48:20] Okay. That's right there. Stop.
Stuart Turley [00:48:24] Unbelievable.
David Blackmon [00:48:25] So so what you have to understand about John Kerry is his political career started at the same time Joe Biden's did when the United States had about six different major media outlets that the government needed to control in order to control everyone's thought and speech in the United States. CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, New York Times. Washington Post. That's what John Kerry had to worry about in terms of speech and thought control when his career began. Then CNN came along in 1980 and then Fox News came along in the early 90s, and then the Internet started and social media started. And suddenly now the authoritarian ghouls like John Kerry can't control the narrative anymore. And and they thought they have a plan. Yes, that's right. And he said it so plainly in this, the First Amendment is a roadblock. First Amendment is the First Amendment because the people who created this country understood that the maintenance of freedom of speech and the free flow of information was the key to preserving the Republican form of government that they were setting up. And if you didn't have a functioning news media, which we don't in the United States anymore, by and large, it's just mainly a propaganda media at this point, with a few notable exceptions. And if you don't have social media outlets where you can get real information and we don't other than X and I guess TikTok, although I've never been on TikTok, but X and TikTok are now the only social media platforms that do not adhere to John Kerry and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's desire to censor your freedom of speech in this country.
Stuart Turley [00:50:09] And Hillary Clinton once said, Elon has lost the right to own it.
David Blackmon [00:50:16] Yeah. And so, yeah, she's the worst.
Tammy Nemeth [00:50:18] Does that mean.
David Blackmon [00:50:19] So I just everyone needs to think about this. The reason I wanted to point it out here when he was talking about climate alarmism. It was the context of these remarks. And they understand they can't force this energy transition unless they control the narrative. Right now, Elon Musk is about the only thing standing between guys like John Kerry and the rest of you in terms of controlling your thought and speech. So you better think about that when you decide who to vote for in this next election.
Stuart Turley [00:50:52] If I couldn't agree more. And by the way, I remember John Kerry telling a stand, he testifying in front of Congress about my father who barely made it.
David Blackmon [00:51:07] Right.
Stuart Turley [00:51:08] Yeah. Okay.
David Blackmon [00:51:11] So I'm done.
Stuart Turley [00:51:12] All right. Hey, I got two stories here. This one I want to give a shout out to Nigel on this one. Climate policies matter. I mean, excuse me. Energy policies matter. And I have a theory. For the last four years, the more we invest in renewable energy, the more fossil fuels we will use. The greener policies you have, the more de-industrialisation and economic failure you will have. So let's listen to Nigel and see how this
Video Speaker Nigel Farage [00:51:49] I don't exaggerate. Harland Wolf, the shipyard that built the Titanic this week, went into administration. Port Talbot, one of our last makers of primary steel in the country, closing down 2000 jobs lost. Our last coal fired power station closed down just yesterday. And Grangemouth, our biggest refinery in the country that's closing down to. Any ideas why? Folks, let me tell you, our electricity prices are 74% higher than the Americans, a third higher than our French competitors. If you're in manufacturing making stuff right, you need lots and lots of energy. And expensive energy means you can't compete against anybody else. The push to net zero is literally deindustrialization. Britain taking away jobs, tens of thousands of jobs around the country from people who are doing jobs, well-paid jobs. That's all gone. And we're not reducing carbon emissions. We're just exporting carbon emissions to India and other places like that. Tata Steel saying the production in Port Talbot will be going to India. Can everyone not see the total madness? I tell you what, the more wind turbines we build, more expensive our electricity is. I repeat the point. We are living through an industrial massacre. Why are the conservatives saying nothing? Because they started this whole process. The amount of labor are going to continue it.
Stuart Turley [00:53:15] Wow.
Tammy Nemeth [00:53:16] Yeah. Why do you say that? During the election they didn't touch net zero at all during the election. And I mean, honestly, if reform wanted to make any more gains, they should have been focusing on that day one.
David Blackmon [00:53:29] should have been the whole campaign.
Tammy Nemeth [00:53:31] Yeah. Because because it's a union party. Otherwise labor and conservatives are doing the same thing just at different speeds.
David Blackmon [00:53:38] Yep.
Stuart Turley [00:53:39] Well, for our listeners out there, we'd ask the question. We have just a few more minutes here. We got five more minutes. What do you think? Where do you think oil is going? And as we take a look at this, I'm going to hand it to X. Grocon. X is has helped me write articles rather than having to steal them from David Blackmon, Tammy or Irina that I normally steal my articles from. I'm actually trying to create my own and I have chat. GPT is just an arm of the left wing nut jobs factory. X does a great job on this. When you take a look, there's going to be a couple of different layouts for attack. I believe it's car island. If Israel attacks that, that's 95% of the export capacity is off of that island. Yeah and I ask is a great person to follow on X and he has shown that all the tankers are gone. They've been already pulled out. So they're kind of getting ready for it just in case. They're saying that if that is a small scale attack, is only 10 to 20%, 5 to 10% increase a major refinery or export export terminal attack, which is getting into that you're talking about, it could cut to 30 to 50%. This could push oil up to $100 a barrel. If they go nuts. I don't know that they're going to do that. A full scale attack. Should Israel ask for a comprehensive strike? It would be 120 to $150 a barrel. I thought the research that Grok gave me back was very good because I had to go fact check grok, but I feel a lot better about that.
David Blackmon [00:55:31] Yeah, groks are good too.
Stuart Turley [00:55:33] And then like Josh Young out on X, absolutely, you need to follow him. He brought out a great point and that is under Trump, the Iranian oil was actually sanctioned in the sanctions were enforced under Biden. The sanctions were not enforced and they all went right up through the roof. I believe it was 400,000, 400,000 barrels per day. Iran was exporting under Trump and it went to 3.5 million barrels per day under Biden. So that does make a huge difference. And then Dan Salt. I got to give him a shout out. He put out a post. It was funny and I did not include it in here. And it was here's a big circle. He drew a crayon around the Middle East and goes, bang! This is the hot spot. So, you know, you have to kind of laugh it down. So I think I don't think Israel is going to attack in a major way on this because it would do that. Now, there are rumors or geological events that have happened around Iran, and that is they're saying they were nuclear tests and that they may even have six nuclear warheads. Who knows? This could get dicey.
Irina Slav [00:57:02] Yeah. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:57:04] I do want to go ahead and share with the ladies here and everybody. David, this is for you. This is what the Democrats were doing right after the fact. After that, when Governor Walz looked at the camera and said, I'm friend with school shooters. Are you ready? Okay. I had to get that out. You know, that has to get air. But now we've also been talking about cool cats. I'm almost wanting a cat instead of a dog. And if the cats were this cool, I. I think I would wanna get.
David Blackmon [00:57:48] Yellow tabbies, man. Best cats of the world.
Stuart Turley [00:57:51] Yeah. S bad schools against. I mean, taking your cat for a ride and then let me wander around. No, my cat would. I had a Siamese cat that attacked everybody in the house when I was growing up. I couldn't have friends over because it shred their
Irina Slav [00:58:07] Well
Stuart Turley [00:58:08] Saying that's a cool cat for the night. Yeah. Cats also. Look at that. Okay, cats rule dogs. I There are some weird about cats, but I found this one really great. man. When cats are sitting there and like dogs don't know how to handle this is almost the same as a man and a woman. And men don't get women. Look at this.
David Blackmon [00:58:38] As much as.
Irina Slav [00:58:40] Yes. That's okay. perfect
Stuart Turley [00:58:49] Look at that.
Irina Slav [00:58:55] No.
Stuart Turley [00:59:02] get out of my bed. Look at this. Yeah, okay.
Irina Slav [00:59:08] You can't have.
Stuart Turley [00:59:10] You look at the poor dog.
Tammy Nemeth [00:59:16] that's true.
Stuart Turley [00:59:18] That is one fat cat.
David Blackmon [00:59:20] Well, that is. That's a welfare. That's what they're All right.
Stuart Turley [00:59:27] Yeah. The illegals in Ohio would love that cat. Can I just say that out loud? I'm so sorry.
Tammy Nemeth [00:59:33] That out loud.
Stuart Turley [00:59:34] Okay, let me remove this here. All right, guys. Well, I'll tell you, we had a lot of great comments in the section, and we have one that we did not get to hear. Dave, what do you think about the adoption of micro nuclear reactors like Westinghouse, eventually 15 megawatt. These will have an easier time with the NRC rather than traditional nuclear power plants.
Irina Slav [01:00:00] I don't know.
David Blackmon [01:00:02] Maybe, but I doubt it. Our regulations are antiquated. They're they're regulations for 1970s generation reactors and installations and not to deal with these micro reactors. And so I'm afraid the federal government permitting process is going to be a big roadblock.
Tammy Nemeth [01:00:24] Agree.
Stuart Turley [01:00:25] I love nuclear reactors. And I still think eventually, like Copenhagen, atomics is going to be where you can mass produce nuclear reactors. That's going to be something that's going to be pretty cool.
David Blackmon [01:00:42] Yeah, I mean, you can make them here. You just can't get the permits to install them here.
Stuart Turley [01:00:48] Exactly.
Stuart Turley [01:00:50] All right.
Tammy Nemeth [01:00:50] Yeah. Until they get until they get them more operational because, like, there really aren't that many in operation, if at all. And until you get some that are operational, I don't see how that process can be accelerated.
Stuart Turley [01:01:02] Yeah, no, but I recommend everybody follow Irina Slav on your Substack and I believe that is IrinaSlav.substack.com, if I understand that correctly. And we go, yeah, and then we have Blackmon on .substack.com and then we have the Tammy Nemeth great podcast. You've got to go follow her on the Nemeth report.com and I'm always on energy news beat dot co or the energy news beat dot substack.com. So with that list was a lot of fun today.
David Blackmon [01:01:44] It Was well over time again thanks everyone for hanging in with us.
Stuart Turley [01:01:48] We'll see guys later.
Tammy Nemeth [01:01:49] Your comments see you next week. Bye
Irina Slav [01:01:51] Bye bye.
Sponsorships are available or get your own corporate brand produced by Sandstone Media.
David Blackmon LinkedIn
The Crude Truth with Rey Trevino
Rey Trevino LinkedIn
Energy Transition Weekly Conversation
David Blackmon LinkedIn
Irina Slav LinkedIn
Armando Cavanha LinkedIn
Our Podcast Sponsor
Share this post