We are in the last 30 days before the election and it is getting dicey. You won't want to miss this episode as Larry Schweikart covers the current poll numbers and political insights. Larry is a best-selling author and political expert commentary. David Blackmon will be joined by Stu Turley, and we will be taking questions from the live audience.
Highlights of the Podcast
00:01 - Introduction
02:07 - Political Landscape Shift
04:28 - Debate Analysis
06:11 - Polling Trends
09:58 - Voter Registration Trends
10:58 - Potential Swing State Dynamics
12:16 - Harris's Role
14:22 - Media Strategy
16:01 - Early Voting Data
20:20 - Senate Race Insights
22:21 - Impact of Arab Vote on Harris's Campaign
23:20 - Voter Preference
24:45 - Changing Dynamics Among Voter Groups
25:45 - Trump's Chances in 2024
35:38 - Concerns Over Political Safety
43:01 - Prosecuting Hollywood
44:58 - Trust in Institutions
54:23 - Election Predictions
David Blackmon [00:00:01] Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Talk and Politics podcast with Larry Schweikart. Stuart Turley I'm David Blackmon. Larry is America's history teacher, author of a series of wonderful books that everyone needs to buy and read for your own edification. And Larry, tell tell folks, before we do anything else, tell folks where they can find your books, because I forgot to do this last week.
Larry Schweikart [00:00:28] Sure. It's at Wild World of History.com. And you can also get a full curriculum in U.S. or world history for high schoolers. I teach every lesson in video. If you're more into politics, go to the wild world of politics.com where I have a political commentary three days a week, Monday, Wednesday, Friday. And then there's 40 or 50 hours of video programing that I've done that my most recent one that I completed was Integrity with Winston Churchill 21 videos and I just started Integrity Billy Graham. And so I have my first video loaded on that series. You can find that at The Insider.
David Blackmon [00:01:14] At The Insider and to tell folks where you are on one I'm sorry, on Substack where all of a sudden.
Larry Schweikart [00:01:22] Just Larry Schweikart. As long as you spell my name right, you'll get me. I have both a free and a a subscription side. I'm also on Twitter. This one's a little harder at Larry SCHWE94, five, six. So.
David Blackmon [00:01:41] Yeah. You know, the Twitter handles are kind of hard sometimes.
Larry Schweikart [00:01:43] Well, they killed my big account of Larry Schweikart. I still don't have that back. And so.
David Blackmon [00:01:53] Yeah, yeah Yeah, it's infuriating. Thank God Elon Musk bought that place elsewhere. Otherwise, we'd be deep in the soup right now. As it is, though, we're not too deep in the soup, and things are starting to look a little brighter, aren't they?
Larry Schweikart [00:02:07] Yeah, it's across the board. I kind of felt like a whole shift occurred over the last week in May. And I asked my my co-host of Decision USA, our broadcast on election night, Seth Cash, or what he thought because he's he's really into the numbers and looking into voter registrations. And he said I smell it.
David Blackmon [00:02:33] Yeah. And you can see it kind of percolating up in the polling data, too, now, which always takes a few weeks longer than than the actual data on registration and early voting applications. We're almost four weeks down the road now from the September 10th debate. Tomorrow will be a week away downstream from the vice presidential debate, which was, I think you'd have to say, an unmitigated disaster for Tim Walz, wouldn't you?
Larry Schweikart [00:03:03] Well, any time you say that I'm best friends with the school shooter, it can't go well.
David Blackmon [00:03:10] You can't pick it. Up Saturday Night Live. Turn it on. You know,
Stuart Turley [00:03:14] I don't think that you can just say that without doing it. Let me play the clip.
Video Speaker [00:03:20] School shooters, I've seen it. Look, the NRA, I was. Intrigued for a long time. Become friends with school shooters. I've seen it. Look, the Browns with school shooters, I've seen it. Look, the NRA.
Stuart Turley [00:03:31] I'm friends with school shooters. How do you. Wow.
David Blackmon [00:03:37] Yeah, I you know, he tried to explain that the next day, but I don't think he did an especially good job of it. Did he
Larry Schweikart [00:03:45] No, not according to anything that I've seen.
David Blackmon [00:03:48] Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he tried to explain away saying, well, you know, I'm friends with David Hogg. Well, David Hogg was a Parkland High school student where that big school shooting took place. When was that? 2014. I want to say I can't remember the exact here. Anyway, he wasn't a school shooter. But Walt's tried to explain. Well, you know, I had David Hogg in mind when. When I was saying that. But then he said it's something I'm passionate about. Well, what's something you're passionate about? Being friends with school shooters or being a buddy of David Hawks? Who cares?
Larry Schweikart [00:04:28] I'm. I'm friends with slashers. And you said, Well, I really meant my barber.
David Blackmon [00:04:37] Yeah. Yeah, exactly. You know. The sky gods. He's got a sharp pair of scissors. I just don't. And I honestly have to say, I. Other than Biden's complete meltdown in June. When was that? June 27th. I don't believe I've ever seen. A worse debate performance. What not put on last week. Have you can you. I mean, maybe Dan Quayle with Lloyd Bentsen would be culpable, I guess. Yeah. Stockdale We can't forget about Stockdale.
Larry Schweikart [00:05:11] Yeah. You know, I tend to watch clips later. Not the live debate because I just hate these things. I have better things to do. J.D. Vance was cool, composed, looked mature. He could have gone for the jugular and just embarrass him like crazy, but didn't. And so now many women are in love with J.D. Vance because he's right. Is Trump without the the Trump excesses, they think.
David Blackmon [00:05:38] Exactly. Well, don't you think that was part of his objective going into that debate? Because they you know, the campaign Trump struggles with suburban women, especially mothers of children that are stay at home moms, spend an hour a day getting we're getting brainwashed by the shrews on The View. And so I think really part of Vance's assignment was to not be Trump in this debate and not go for the jugular, which would turn those people off all over.
Larry Schweikart [00:06:11] Well, Trump has won suburban white women in 2020, and he is polling ahead in suburban white married women right now. Harry Enten is quite desperate. Now, he went on CNN and was saying, well, well, right. Right now, Harris is leading among college educated white women. And I'm like, yeah. So it next you're going to be saying that that Harris is leading among Redheaded Left-Handed dwarfs. You know, I mean you're narrowing the the the categories until it's it's meaningless. Look, the polling there's still a few pollsters desperately clinging to this nonsense that Harris is up a couple of points or I think one even has her up five points, which is just beyond stupid. This is the same poll that had Biden winning 2020 by 11. So they're only off by nine. But we've seen a pretty steady polling shift of Trump up in Pennsylvania now in almost every poll. And his internals say he's up more than to day is internal say he's tied in Michigan. The last three Michigan pollsters say he's up by one in Michigan. And virtually all of the data that we're looking at coming in from real data, whether it's early ballot requests or voter registration, are trending 2 to 3 points to the right of where 2020 was. And my co-host on Decision USA Election Night, Seth Kessel. Rather than looking at polling, Seth is very big on looking at voter registrations and where they were compared to where the state voted in 2020. And what he's found is that Nevada is something like 5 or 6000 more to the right. Pennsylvania is much more to the right. Every single state is much more to the right of where it voted. Pennsylvania came out today with new registration numbers that showed that the GOP has registered 60,000 new voters in a month and that that amounted to a 25,000 net gain. Here in Maricopa County, I just checked the number. We're at 170 1000 a net just in Maricopa County. Whole state was only plus 130,000 in 2020. So it's looking like Arizona is way out of reach. Arizona is going to be plus 5 or 6 for Trump may be enough to bring Carey Lake over at this point. Pennsylvania, I think I really think that the Harris campaign's given up on Pennsylvania. They were counting on North Carolina. But the latest polling from North Carolina has Trump up four. Even with the devastation in the western part of the state and the disproportionate number of Republicans out there, I think you're still looking at a shortfall of maybe maybe 40 or 50,000 Republicans in North Carolina, which I guess it'd be about a half a point. So, yeah, you're looking at something like a three and a half point Trump win North Carolina with in the most pessimistic circumstances. Virginia continues to trend strongly Republican. The vote overall has tailed down. But Harris was up or Harris strong. Harris Voting counties were up 18 points. But strong Trump voting counties are up almost 60 points in the last.
David Blackmon [00:09:58] Ten won in early voting.
Larry Schweikart [00:10:01] Yes, in early voting. So obviously, those are less populated than some of the strong Harris counties. But nevertheless, it's looking like a very strong Republican turnout on Election Day and a somewhat weaker turnout for Democrats who will give Virginia to Trump. So, I mean, I'm already on to the third tier. I'm convinced Trump has already won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia. And now I'm on to the next tier, which is Minnesota, Maine, Virginia, New Hampshire and New Mexico, those five states. So we had a poll come out last week with Trump down just four points in New Mexico. Well, Trump always under polls by two. So it means really he's he's two points. And you got a margin of error of three points. So New Mexico is very, very close.
David Blackmon [00:10:58] Yeah. And it should be close, right? An election like this and a change election where there's only one change candidate, obviously, in the race and you know Harris has attempted and. And had, I think, some early success in portraying yourself as as a kind of a change agent in the election and separating herself from Biden. It almost seems like Biden is working at cross-purposes with her now. She the last I think it was Thursday. She was about to go live up on CNN with a rally she was holding. I can't remember where Vegas or somewhere. And and all of a sudden, Joe Biden just shocks everybody and comes into the White House briefing room for the first time in his entire presidency. And just. And, of course, CNN can't go away from the president of the United States. He might actually mumble something important. And during his his prepared remarks, he actually says Harris was intimately involved in every decision. Right. I mean, do you think it's possible instead, I've talked about this several times, that he's really actively trying to undermine her campaign at this point.
Larry Schweikart [00:12:16] Yeah, who knows? I don't know about any of these people. All I know is that Republicans need to get off this constant hand-wringing fear mongering where they're, what are they going to do next? What are they going to say next? I don't care. They need to be worried about what we're going to do next, what we're going to say next. Because this particular group, they may have been competent back under Obama in 2008, but this particular group is incredibly incompetent. They are absolute boobs, absolute fools. They can't do anything. They're stumbling around. And I think the latest attempt to shove Harris out there on all of these talk shows doing interviews, which is her weakest point.
David Blackmon [00:13:03] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:13:03] I'm I, I am stunned by Vice President Harris's interview with Call Me Daddy or whatever the heck this thing was. It's your. Sick show. And when you look at the three previous ones were how to perform oral activities for an hour and a half before that. I'm like, You've got to be kidding me.
Larry Schweikart [00:13:33] Well, she is in her element, right? Right.
Stuart Turley [00:13:35] Go there. But holy smokes. Batman. My gosh.
David Blackmon [00:13:42] Yeah, I. Find it pretty amazing. And now she's going to do Howard Stern tomorrow. And of course, Stern's whole shtick is to get people on him and take them down these roads into these explicit sex talks with him. Well well, it's pretty, pretty amazing selection of shows to go on.
Stuart Turley [00:13:58] I want to know, will he show up in blackface again?
David Blackmon [00:14:03] No. I think he's pretty well done with that.
Larry Schweikart [00:14:06] I mean, who still watches Howard Stern? Unless you're like 60 or 70 year old hippies that are smoking weed all day and watching porn. I mean, this guy is as irrelevant as almost almost anyone I can think of out there.
Stuart Turley [00:14:21] Hillary.
David Blackmon [00:14:22] Yeah, he's he's got a big audience, but it's not nearly as big as it once was. I just. I find it astonishing. She's doing these things like the 60 Minutes interview that they keep kind of releasing little snippets of here and there. I know it's going to be heavily edited in her favor to to try to cover for the worst parts of what she did in that interview. But even the snippets they're issuing are just terrible for her. It's just she her answers are. Bizarrely bad. And this is because she doesn't know anything about anything and she can't say what she really does know, of course. So I just thought that Trump did the smart thing with that deal and said, no, I'm not going to do 60 Minutes. Are you kidding? Yeah. And I think we're now finally, I think, past any danger of there being any more of these worthless debates. Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:15:22] And another thing that really people have not been paying attention to, these staged rallies by Harris, which are 100% Astroturf. You can't get away with that now because now we have tracking data on the cell phones. And what we found is that virtually all of these Harris rallies are attended by the same people being bussed all around the country. So the last one I saw, something like 80% of them had already been to two other rallies. The rally Trump held in Wisconsin was shocking because 20% of the cell phones are first time voters.
David Blackmon [00:16:00] Right.
Larry Schweikart [00:16:01] So you're seeing Trump pull in millions and millions of these first time voters. Charlie Kirk turning Point USA over to Dream City Church and to ASU and registered over 800 youths. So, you know, it's just differences in who.
David Blackmon [00:16:21] Yeah, Charlie Kirk's fantastic. And you know, it's not just Trump's rallies. The Tucker Carlson events. Tens of thousands of people showing up to hear Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly and whoever else he has a guess at any given time.
Larry Schweikart [00:16:38] Jordan Peterson and.
David Blackmon [00:16:39] In, you know. All over. You know, they go on all over the country. They did one here in the Dallas Fort Worth area last week, 18,000 people. And you have standing room only outside, just like the Trump rallies. It's an amazing movement. And I just feel like we're getting really close to that threshold where you have a fraud proof margin here building out. And most every one of these swing states there is seems to be some concern about Florida. We've had several polls coming out of Florida by some of the usual suspect polling groups showing Florida, you know, Trump with just a 4 to 2 point lead in Florida. And now you have another hurricane about to hit Florida later this week. Is there any chance in hell that Donald Trump doesn't win Florida by at least 8% or.
Larry Schweikart [00:17:38] Eight points minimum? You've got to remember that these people, these people who poll Florida other than Beerus, are just they're the worst of the worst they had back in 18. They had the Santos losing to Gilliam's Island. Yeah. By 1111, the Santos won by over one. So that's a 12 point miss. They're constantly missing the Senate races by four and five points. And since those misses, the Republicans in Florida have added, I don't know how many they've had. I know they're up to net over 1.1 million over Democrats. And the early votes that we've seen early vote request from Duval County, which is a key county, were off the charts in favor of Trump and Republicans. So this is just I it's just disgusting that these people put this stuff out there. But we have to understand that in in 2016, for example, in Wisconsin, the average error, even by the good pollsters was six points. That one poll had Trump losing Wisconsin by 11, meaning they were off 12. The polls in Ohio are constantly 4 to 5 points low on Trump. They show him winning by four. He comes in 8.5. This year, he's going to take it by ten. So these are all here. Here's the metric I'm looking for. I haven't seen it yet, but I have a feeling that the gears are moving and we just haven't seen it. I'm waiting for them to move the money to the Senate races to finally just say we're done with Harris and we've got to move the money because there was a poll out last week. You know, you you take the polls, you think make Trump look bad. Well, this was a two point lead for Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin Senate race over Covid. And that should be a warning Claxton to Democrats, because this is a seat. Honestly, I did not have that one on my chart. I had absolute gains of West Virginia. Likely gain a Montana and Ohio. Possible gains of Arizona and Pennsylvania. And I didn't even have Wisconsin on there. I don't cancel that on there either.
David Blackmon [00:19:55] And there's been polls in Michigan, too, showing that race really close as well.
Larry Schweikart [00:19:59] And if Trump wins Michigan by more than two, Rogers will be the senator there. And I think Slotkin knows it was what she said over a week ago. We're underwater in Michigan, so I'm waiting to see the evidence of them moving the money to the Senate races. I haven't seen it yet, but I believe it's out there. I believe it's it's they're talking about it.
David Blackmon [00:20:20] Well, they've been spending a boatload of money on all red calling all red here in Texas. Who's running against Ted Cruz? He must have at 100 million at least to pour into this campaign. He's been up on TV since July. You know, you just can't go through a commercial break any more on local newscasts without seeing an all round out. And so, you know, we've had some polls here recently in Texas showing that race pretty close for 4 to 6 points, 3 to 6 points. But Ted Cruz finally went up on the air over this past weekend. And that's going to change, too. And, you know, I just think Cruz has has he's put up a really excellent and he's going to win that race by 6 to 7% probably. And Trump is going to win Texas by 10% of the vote, just like Republicans always do. Right. So, you know, if any of you out there are worried about Texas, don't be. It's just not going to happen for the Democrats.
Larry Schweikart [00:21:18] Well, Seth Castle put up a very good analysis yesterday of Nevada, and he has Trump winning Nevada by 38,000 votes. And he I mean, he delves into county by county level on the shift in the counties and so on, so forth. The Democrats have lost almost 60,000 off their lead from 2020 when they they won. By 33,000. So they're already underwater and now they're at 18,000 lead in in Nevada and falling. I just think that Nevada is probably going to come along. It's one, two. I kind of have a right ahead of places like Michigan, Minnesota, but I think it'll come along. The rumblings on the ground in Michigan, for example, we had a hint of an Arab group come out and say they will not support us. They're not going to support her. And, of course, 2 or 3 weeks ago, we had the mayor of Hamtramck say that he endorsed Trump. So.
David Blackmon [00:22:20] Right. Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:22:21] If you take that Arab vote away from Harris in Michigan, there's no way she can win. No, not voters in Wayne County to pull them over.
David Blackmon [00:22:32] And the amazing thing is they poured so much not just money, but political capital into obtaining that air of the Palestinian vote in Rashida Tlaib district in Michigan. And for them to be struggling with that particular voter segment now is truly amazing. Really amazing. One of the most amazing developments of this race. And then I saw another one this morning, an amazing stat that it's just hard to believe after all that. And despite all that, Jewish voters prefer Harris over Trump. And a new poll out today, 64 to 35. Yeah. How do we explain that? It's stunning. It's just stunning to me.
Larry Schweikart [00:23:20] Well, anyone who's read the Bible more than once knows that God did not call the Jews the stiff necked people for nothing. That I've never seen an ethnic group less committed to their own survival and less willing to do the things that would ensure them to survive and prosper than the Jews in America and Europe anywhere you go. It's like people like Netanyahu have to grab them by the tie and drag them to go do what must be done to ensure their survival. And they're fighting him the whole way. And the same thing with American Jews. Their IQ wise, they are one of the very top groups in America. And for being that smart, they are the stupidest ethnic group I have seen.
David Blackmon [00:24:13] It's really it's election after. It never changes. It just never changes. It's been two thirds, one third forever. Catholics used to be that way, and now it's more like 60, 40 deal with Catholics, which is in itself just really extraordinary given the Democratic Party's hatred of Catholicism and obvious overt hatred of Catholicism. But but but that Jewish statistic just boggles my mind.
Larry Schweikart [00:24:43] I think there's a subgroup of the Klan called the KKK, the Ku Klux Klan, because they're always going after the Catholics.
David Blackmon [00:24:52] Yeah, they are. It's it's just it's just amazing. It's astonishing. I but meantime, though, you know, you see Republicans making big inroads with Hispanic voters, with black voters, particularly black male voters who identify with Trump and all the persecution he's gone through in the past couple of years with the lawfare effort by the Democrats. So that that effort, you know, I think when we get to the end of this campaign. And if Trump does win, which I now kind of expect that to happen, probably a 70% chance of that happening, I think we're going to look back and find two factors that just spelled death for the Democrats, regardless of who their nominee was. And the first one is that Lawfare campaign. And then the second one is passing over Josh Shapiro as Harrison's running mate in favor of this doofus from Minnesota. What do you think?
Larry Schweikart [00:25:45] Well, you know, there are definitely those long ago, maybe a year ago, I identified two Democrats civil wars and one was the Jewish versus Palestinian Hamas civil war, which, as you mentioned, the Democrats have have blown that they couldn't help but blow it, but they blew it in favor of the Arabs who have rejected them because I think they knew that the Jews were going to support them no matter what. You know, didn't matter what sops they gave to the Arab community, that the Jews would still be there. But it has eroded their support. And then the other one was the illegal immigration, the criminal invaders in our inner cities versus the real residents of the inner cities who are demanding their share of the pie that they've been promised all these years. And now all that's going to the illegal criminal invaders. But let's get back to your point, because I think you're absolutely right in the lawfare. The whole reason that Biden was still on the ticket in 2024 was that the Democrats were 100% convinced that Lawfare was going to remove President Trump and that they'd let Biden win the election. Then they'd quietly remove him after the election for health reasons. Right? But actually, I would go back further than Shapiro And I would say their their other point of incompetence, once again, showing how incredibly stupid these people are at this time was when they allowed Biden to name Harris as his veep. Whoever permitted that sealed off any future the party had because she's just a blundering fool, a total area. I mean, she makes Biden look smart.
David Blackmon [00:27:30] She really actually does not.
Larry Schweikart [00:27:32] That's really I hope that was a critical mistake. I don't think Shapiro could have saved Pennsylvania. I hear a lot. Well, you know, Shapiro could have done better. I don't think he could have saved Pennsylvania, because right now, Trump is totally in sync with Pennsylvanians. And you saw that with a rally where he had over 105,000 and almost 20 million screaming the rally.
Stuart Turley [00:27:56] That was nuts. I have Trump introducing Elon. And I think that's important enough just to do this one minute clip, if you don't mind.
David Blackmon [00:28:06] You know,
Video Speaker Donald Trump [00:28:07] It's just an. Embarrassment to us. Can you imagine foreign leaders coming in and running over roads that haven't been paved in years? We're honored to be joined tonight by one of the people who is going to help us build this incredible future. And he is a truly incredible guy. And I don't say that that off
Stuart Turley [00:28:26] At the time.There were 7.2 million people watching this section right here.
Video Speaker Donald Trump [00:28:30] He's a great gentleman. He's done such an unbelievable job for North Carolina, for Georgia, for Alabama, for Florida, for Tennessee. His name is Elon Musk. He saved free speech. He created so many different great things. Where are they? Where is he? Come on up here, Ellen. He created the first major American car company in generations in his rocket company. He's the only reason we can now send American astronauts into space.
Stuart Turley [00:29:05] Look at it. I love it.
Video Speaker Donald Trump [00:29:07] Take over Elon take on that.
Stuart Turley [00:29:10] This. This part. I love guys. This. I love Elon. And I love .
Video Speaker Elon Musk [00:29:24] Hi everyone. As you can see, I'm. I'm not just Magga. I'm dark. Magga. Well, first of all, I want to say what an honor it is to be here. And, you know, the true test of someone's character is how they behave under fire. Right. And we had one president who couldn't. Climate. Flight of stairs. And another who was fist pumping after getting shot. Fight Fight Fight blood coming down the face. But America is the home of the brave. And there's no there's no truer test and courage under fire.
Stuart Turley [00:30:14] I'll tell you, I was I'm a yay. Yeah. And Elon, I do want to say this shout out right now. If you are watching this podcast, please go buy your. Star. Like many right now, it is phenomenal. And there are people that are in there that are out in the field right now saying that they put a drop these out there and all of a sudden people are able to communicate what things are. So get those before there is a manmade or natural disaster in your area.
Larry Schweikart [00:30:55] Stu. You know, you make a really good point there. And as a historian, I always try to keep my eye open. Am I watching a pivotal event? Am I watching something that is really in 30, 40, 100 years going to be look back at and they say, wow, this was very important. And I think the moment that Elon Musk's rocket rescued those NASA people was an absolutely pivotal moment in American history because it showed for the first time really in 60 or 70 years that the private sector was obviously clearly better able to do major operations than the government. And when you read in textbooks that. The transcontinental. Railroads never would have been built without the government, and you ignore people like James J. Hill, who built one without the government, and now you're getting this same thing, which is we're on NASA's greatest space explorer, one agency that does things really well. Not anymore. And now you have a private citizen basically doing what NASA's, with all of its billions of dollars, couldn't do.
David Blackmon [00:32:07] Yeah. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:32:08] You know,
David Blackmon [00:32:08] Bought ship with Boeing, a company that is. I don't know. It seems to me Boeing's got to be doomed to the ash heap of history pretty soon. I don't know how it.
David Blackmon [00:32:19] Go broke. Yeah. I'm sorry to interrupt you.
Stuart Turley [00:32:23] Go, go, go broke. But, hey, on that note, Elon, I love you on. And what he's bringing to this, we've got to cut 90% of our government out to survive. The United States has been broke for years, and I see that that is a potential. But, Larry, you bring up a great point. And there are litmus tests for society. And I think when SNL actually starts making fun of you. You've lost
David Blackmon [00:32:53] got a real problem if you're a Democrat.
Stuart Turley [00:32:59] That's right. And I think with your permission, David, I think this is a good time to show this.
David Blackmon [00:33:03] Now, this cold open was fabulous.
Video Speaker 1 [00:33:05] On this thing, whatever that may be.
Video Speaker 2 [00:33:11] Come on, just relax. You know, you haven't had a night off in three months. Do you want to watch something less stressful, like the Menendez brothers show?
Video Speaker 1 [00:33:19] I don't know, I kind of wish I had picked Josh right now.
Video Speaker 2 [00:33:22] Josh Shapiro.
Video Speaker 1 [00:33:23] No. Josh.
Video Speaker 2 [00:33:27] Look they Will be fine. It's not like he's going to say something crazy.
Video Speaker [00:33:32] I've become friends with school shooters.
Stuart Turley [00:33:41] You can't buy that kind of. Then it's great to see SNL really again. But I have a unreleased copy here. This is pretty important, David. Of a game show host that is now coming out. ABC, CBS has now got this coming out. Okay. Are you ready? It's a new game.
Video Speaker 3 [00:34:01] In the eyes of the other candidate. And whoever turns away is the chicken. You know the rules. Let's begin. May the best man win.
Stuart Turley [00:34:15] A staring contest. You gotta love it, David.
David Blackmon [00:34:22] The stare down.
Video Speaker 3 [00:34:27] Wow. Why did you give up so easily? Governor, are you admitting that you are, in fact, a chickenshit?
Stuart Turley [00:34:35] I come from.A middle class family. I'm sorry. I'm sorry, David. I had to get that off my chest.
David Blackmon [00:34:43] So. So I want to go back to the butler thing. Because Elon Musk said something there about courage and courage under fire. And I just want to point out to people, I was very concerned, actually, about both Trump and Musk, NJ Advance and so many other important Republicans being there at the same time on the same stage under the protection of the Secret Service. Particularly at that particular scene where there had already been one assassination attempt. I think we shouldn't lose perspective of the fact that it took courage for all those people to be there that day. Most concluded it was a hell of a risk. It was the most target rich environment for Democrat inspired lunatics in our society that there's ever been. And I'm just really happy.
Larry Schweikart [00:35:38] Which is to say, all of them.
David Blackmon [00:35:40] Right. You know, it just is. You know, we've seen it happen twice already. I still expect there to be at least one more attempt on Trump's life before this election. And because it's all they got left, I mean, they've they've tried everything else. Well, to do.
Larry Schweikart [00:35:57] Let's go down to rabbit holes here first. This just my opinion. I don't have the evidence. It's just a gut feeling I have. We know that the leadership and Secret Service is totally useless, compromised. Just, you know, idiots. But I got the sense somewhere that mid-level people who really believed in the mission of the Secret Service mobilized and went to these people and said, we're going to protect who were scheduled to protect, who were assigned to protect, and we're not going to have any more of this again. And I think the push again, just my gut instinct is that the push to increase security and to make sure that there aren't any more shootings came from the middle. I think that there are still people in the Secret Service, unlike the FBI, who are patriotic Americans, who are willing to buck the system to make sure that things get done right. The other rabbit.
David Blackmon [00:36:57] On Geno's says, too. And Bongino knows. Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:37:00] Yeah, well, he would know. Yeah. And Bongino needs a place in this administration. A place where he can wield a very heavy hand and smack people.
David Blackmon [00:37:11] After the Secret Service that began.
Larry Schweikart [00:37:13] Well, there you go. The other rabbit hole, though, that's still interesting because just yesterday, another New York aid to Eric the Red Adams has resigned because she's under. Wow. This situation. So let's review 2001. Andrew Cuomo, governor, nipple pen vent hoarder, as I call him, Resign.
David Blackmon [00:37:39] Well.
Larry Schweikart [00:37:40] Okay. Then you had Hercules aide resign and is under investigation. Then you had the they were police chiefs, right? Two New York police chiefs. I get NYPD and NYPD mixed up and I'm pretty sure they were PD Right. Stepped down and are under investigation. Then you got the closest aide to Eric Adams under investigation for campaign funds associated with the chai coms. Then you got Eric Adams stepping down or not stepping down, but being indicted for the same kind of Tricom related bribery things, except they threw in Turkey. Now, you know, the Turks and the chai coms operate so closely together these days. And just now you have yet one more of these New Yorkers stepping down under investigation. And then let's throw in pee diddly who is still languishing out there in the Jack Ruby room of the Jeffrey Epstein wing of the jail. So that's a lot of people across the spectrum, top to bottom, you know, across the board, police, mayor, governor, entertainment, all going down at the same time. That's why I don't think this is aimed just at Eric the Red Adams. I think it is aimed at something else inside New York. And I don't know by who or for what reason, but it's clear some Night of the Long Knives is at work in New York.
David Blackmon [00:39:20] Yes, apparently it is. So how long that how long do you think Adams can hold out before he actually is forced to resign? I you know, the problem here is that, of course, this guy is I never thought it would be possible for New Yorkers to elect a worse mayor than Bill de Blasio. But they did. Yeah. And but as bad as he is, apparently the guy that would step in for him if he resigns is is just miles and miles worse?
Larry Schweikart [00:39:49] Yes.
David Blackmon [00:39:49] And with just just completely destroyed the city like that idiots doing to Chicago. And of course Chicago's anyway, it's another story. But so you're almost left with trying to hope that Adams can just hold on until there can be, you know, the next election, whenever that is, which I think is still two years away. So it's just a horrible situation for such a what used to be a great city. I don't I haven't been there in a while, but, you know,
Larry Schweikart [00:40:21] I hate one there, I just hate, you know, Fox used to have me on all the time. I would just hate going to that city. And it it stinks. And the noise never ends. They said this is a city that never sleeps and is Nobody can get any sleep. They're just the garbage trucks. I run it to in the morning things.
Stuart Turley [00:40:41] I think people
Larry Schweikart [00:40:44] will always under. construction. There's always junk on the sidewalks. You're walking. You're always wondering if you're going to get hit in the head by a falling is beam or concrete block or something. I just hate New York. I always hated going there. The only city I hate going to worse is Washington, D.C., where I feel like I need a shower the minute I get off the plane. It's like when you go to one of these South American banana republics and it's so humid that the second you get off the plane, you need a shower. That's the way D.C. is becoming because of the corruption there. So if Letitia James was at all bright, I might suggest she had some role in all this stuff. But I don't think she's smart enough to pull all this wrong. So there is a question out there who is going after? There was a movie a long time ago. George Segal Someone is killing the great chefs of Europe. Well, somebody is taking out all the leadership of New York and we need to know why and who.
Stuart Turley [00:41:43] Will find out. I know it's coming. I think because when people understand that when you stand up against the Democrat machine, you will be taken out. The other thing that is I, I we are not talking enough about child trafficking and child trafficking. They say that they've lost 320,000 kids on the border. I believe that number in my heart to be 600,000. And this to me is the most reprehensible thing on the planet, is that this administration has been at the forefront of human sexual trafficking and should be admonished unbelievably for this. And if anybody thinks that this is about anything else, this is about the failure of this administration in the child trafficking. And I think P Diddy is an a perfect example, that there is hope that if this thing does come through and you're going to see that one attorney that has had they have 100 people working the phone lines for the deadline, as you called it, I believe.
David Blackmon [00:42:58] It's going to be held in Houston. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:43:01] Unbelievable. I hope they just prosecute all of Hollywood. I mean, everybody that is in this mix needs to go down.
Larry Schweikart [00:43:12] Well, there was a great story out over the weekend about Denzel, who had been he's one of the finest stand up guys in all of Hollywood. He was invited years ago to one of these parties. And when he saw what was going on, he started chewing these people out. What are you doing? How can you debase yourself like this? And then he he left. And about 6 or 8 months ago, I forget how long ago when James O'Keefe went to the border, one of one of our close friends, son, was the chauffeur on one of the trucks, the Hummers that they had had leased to go down there. And he followed the whole process with O'Keefe and noted that when the children come across, they were separated and put into busses that went. Somewhere and no one knew where. Into the middle of America. And I guarantee you that once they left the border, nobody except a child rapist was ever going to see any of those kids again because they were put into the human trafficking system and were just gone. So you're absolutely right. This whole thing needs to come down. I don't know if you saw this, David Stu, there was a interview with Eric Weinstein by some podcaster. I guess he's a big name podcast. You know who Eric Weinstein is?
David Blackmon [00:44:37] Yeah, He's the biggest piece of human excrement on the planet.
Larry Schweikart [00:44:40] Well, and he was saying that. But he was what he was saying was true was that we we totally lost trust in all of our institutions. And he was trying to make the argument that that you can't do that. You need to get some of these institutions back. And my view is that they're so far wrong.
David Blackmon [00:44:58] Weinstein Is you talking about the lawyer who was at DOJ who basically ran the Mueller investigation?
Larry Schweikart [00:45:05] I don't think that's him. He's a scholar at Harvard.
David Blackmon [00:45:09] Okay. No, I'm sorry. I apologize to Eric Weinstein. I'm getting my Weinstein.
Larry Schweikart [00:45:12] And he is he's engaged in a lot of debates with Sam Harris, which I find to be fruitless because this guy is fruitless. But his point was, no, we can't destroy all these institutions. That's going too far. You know, they need to be reformed. And it reminded me of the debate between the Puritans within England and the pilgrims who said, you know, the one group says or we can fix England from within. Well, they did eventually, but it took a civil war and a guy named Oliver Cromwell to do it. But the other guy said, no, we can't fix it from within. We're going to America. We'll start over.
David Blackmon [00:45:49] Hey, I want to go back to Tony Buzbee for a second, because people don't know who he is. And I want to remind people who he is, okay? Because if you're thinking, well, this is just some hack lawyer out of Houston trying to make a bunch of money at daddy's expense, I want to remind you, this is the same lawyer who had more than 120 women willing to testify against the quarterback for the Texans at the time, whose name I'm going to forget. Deshaun Watson is now with the Cleveland Browns and playing light duty. And they were all telling the truth. And he spent a lot of time batting them and they were telling the truth. And he's also the lawyer who defended our attorney general here in Texas when when our drunk speaker, Dade Phelan, and his minions were trying to impeach him. Tony Busby's the guy that went in there with a with a buzzsaw and tore that case up, shredded, shredded every witness they put on the stand. And that's why our Attorney General is still our attorney general. So Tony Buzbee is a bulldog lawyer. He's the real deal. He's one of the best trial lawyers in Texas. And if he's got 120 people, one of the testify against Diddy, he's buried them. And then they're credible people. And this is why the bottom line here and all this discussion about it being by and large about child trafficking and that all being involved in this is why I don't believe that he is ever going to stand trial. And I think he'll probably be suicided before that happens, because Diddy's associate list has some of the biggest names in our society on it. And it's the same reason why Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself in that federal prison, too.
Stuart Turley [00:47:40] I find it odd that the list that I saw included some of the same people on the Epstein list that were on the same list, and they range from the Clintons to the Obamas. And it is a heck of a list if they're potentially on there.
David Blackmon [00:47:59] Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:48:00] Oprah Winfrey and, you know, Brad Pitt. And yeah, I sure will.
Stuart Turley [00:48:08] The one the one lady that is says she is negotiating with the owners or the person that's on that video because it's about to be released. There are three there are TV stations that are negotiating for this, one for a raping of a individual. We all know this is despicable that this is even being bought.
Larry Schweikart [00:48:37] Yeah, it may be the only way we can get this stuff out, though. So I'm. I'm torn on that. You can't say we don't ever want to show any of this. There's no waiting because the DOJ is not going to do it. Nobody who's going going after P diddly is going to do any of this. It needs to be got out.
Stuart Turley [00:48:58] It does.
David Blackmon [00:49:00] And by the way, the other thing everyone also needs to be aware of is that this all goes back to Harvey Weinstein to, okay, a lot of the very same people you would find across the associates of Harvey Weinstein, Jeffrey Epstein and Eddie. It's all the same people, including Oprah. You know, since we brought her, she's on all those lists.
Larry Schweikart [00:49:26] You know, it's interesting how and I'm not sure I haven't done a cultural look at this, but it's interesting how much movies overall have collapsed. Once Weinstein went out, it as perverted. And where is he is? I have a feeling that he provided some sort of guide rail to say, No, the public won't buy this. You can't show this kind of garbage. You've got to have entertaining movies. And if Weinstein could do anything right, it was that he knew what made an entertaining movie. Just go back and look at all the movies you like and see how many of them had Miramax on the front. Right. Which brings me to the Joker movie, which I love.
David Blackmon [00:50:10] Is going to bring that up
Larry Schweikart [00:50:12] Local movie is a hideous, hideous collapse. It is a grand total of $9 million in its opening. And folks, this is a movie that was produced for $200 million, not counting at least 50 million in marketing. The old rule of thumb in film was that you had to make all your money back for production costs on week one. Right. Right. And so now there are about $241 million short of doing that. And that's it. May see Warner Brothers.
David Blackmon [00:50:50] Dennis Quaid Reagan movie made twice that much on it.
Larry Schweikart [00:50:54] That's right. But it's still not profitable. But it did much better. Yeah. And it's interesting, you know, that we're I think we're getting close to the United Artists moment in Hollywood. Many of you may not remember this movie for good reason, but Kris Kristofferson died last week and he was in this movie. He was the star. It was called Heaven's Gate. And it was where the studio United Artists gave Michael Cimino because he had just done Deer Hunter and another really big movie there at the time. And they gave him free rein and he spent money like it was water and bankrupted United Artists Studios, which is a very good studio. It was founded by Douglas Fairbanks Jr and Charlie Chaplin. And one of the things. Cimino Did you appreciate this? He wanted a really green meadow for all of the cattle, and he was up in Montana and the grass wasn't green enough, so he ripped up all the grass and put down an irrigation system underground sprinklers to make Montana grass greener.
David Blackmon [00:52:05] Yeah, Heaven's Gate was what, 79 or 80? And they spent something like $130 million on it, which is half $1 billion in today's money.
Larry Schweikart [00:52:18] And it killed.Kristofferson's career as an A-list actor. He never got another A-list gig after that movie.
David Blackmon [00:52:23] Yeah. Kris Kristofferson, we should say rest in peace to him, one of the great songwriters of the 60s and 70s.
Larry Schweikart [00:52:30] I was in a movie with him. I knew well, they filmed A Star Is Born here in Tempe Sun Stadium, and they had five great rock and roll acts. Santana, Peter Frampton, L.A. Jets, a couple of others. And that's the way they got all the kids in to be the audience for the night scene, right? And so I went with my singer friend and we said, Well, we want to actually watch the the stuff from above. We don't want to be part of the audience. So we went up to the side of the stage, up in the bleachers there at Sun Devils Stadium and could watch the whole thing. So we were out of camera shot, but I was in that movie.
David Blackmon [00:53:09] That's awesome. So one of the best days of my life. I'm going to date myself completely here. 50 years ago this month. I saw at the Armadillo World headquarters in Austin, Texas, and an old National Guard armory, they turned it into a concert hall. I paid a $6 cover charge to see Willie Nelson, Waylon Jennings, Leon Russell and Kris Kristofferson all on the same bill.
Larry Schweikart [00:53:36] Wow.
David Blackmon [00:53:37] You're on the bill. 50 years ago.
Larry Schweikart [00:53:40] Well, those guys, Whalen and Buck Owens and and Johnny Cash and some of the others used to play out in Glendale, Mr. Lucky's nightclub, all the time. I mean, almost every other week he'd go out there and be one of those four guys and you could just pay five bucks and walk in for a whole, whole night.
David Blackmon [00:53:59] Yeah. Yeah. Those were different times. Different times. Golly, guys, this has been fun. I think we've pretty much covered the landscape. Where do you. What do you think? Okay, So we're a month away. We're four weeks away from from the election. I'm going to make a prediction. Let's do predictions. How's the election going to come out? You first, Larry.
Larry Schweikart [00:54:23] Trump with a minimum of 312 electoral votes, maximum of 340. I think he wins the popular vote by at least a point. We take the Senate, Republicans take the Senate by three seats. West Virginia, Ohio. And. And Montana, as of today would have us losing Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin very narrowly. But again, the trends are such that it'd be very easy for those three seats to also go Republican.
David Blackmon [00:54:55] Stu.
Stuart Turley [00:54:57] I like what he said. I will I would be incredibly happy if that happens. I'm I think that's an optimal message to send. I think depending on the sheet on how accurate your prediction is. And what I fear is that there are some like Laura Trump has done a phenomenal job getting all the poll watchers, but there is some stuff going on with an attorney. I believe that is a rhino that has announced that he is a poll watcher. I believe in Arizona. I could be wrong.
Larry Schweikart [00:55:35] Just resigned. This was a guy who had not done a good job and exactly feel and he just resigned four days before the party was to deliver its counterargument to this new business of some 200,000 people. And remember, of those 200,000 that that's now 200,000 Democrats, that's a split. And given the way the registrations are going, it's entirely possible that a majority of those may be Republicans. The Democrats, again, are stupid this time around. And I think they are stabbing themselves in the foot repeatedly. But you're right, this particular guy, if they replace him with somebody decent, it'll be a net gain.
Stuart Turley [00:56:20] So my my answer is, I am tired of stealing the election and it needs to be permanently stop. I loved Laura Trump when she stood up at the rally in Butler and said, If you vote as an illegal alien or you're a poll worker, we will come prosecute you. I think that that is the only way we will save this country.
David Blackmon [00:56:52] Yeah, I agree with that. I think that needs to be one of their top priorities. And it just puts the spotlight on this election for attorney general. He has to get it right this time. He can't have two bad choices.
Larry Schweikart [00:57:03] Paxton would be great.
David Blackmon [00:57:05] Paxton would be wonderful. Let's go with Jim Paxton. I'm done. I think we're going to be in.
Larry Schweikart [00:57:12] I don't want the shooting guard for the bulls to be my attorney general.
David Blackmon [00:57:15] Ken Paxton, our attorney general in Texas and in Texas is a good man and a great attorney general. I got it. To 96 electoral votes dead even in the popular vote. I agree with you completely on the Senate. And the only reason I'm at 296 on the electoral votes is I do think the Democrats will be able to steal enough votes to win 1 or 2 of these key states that they otherwise would lose. So that's where I am on that. And, you know, maybe that opinion will change over the next few weeks. We'll do this every week, see if our opinions change between now and then. So right now I'm feeling pretty good, feeling salty about this election
Stuart Turley [00:57:55] I don't know. But I think you should.
Video Speaker [00:57:57] So I've become friends with school shooters. I've seen it. look
Stuart Turley [00:58:00] What, you can't buy that kind of entertainment?
David Blackmon [00:58:05] kind of entertainment. I pray to see it. Anyway, Gentlemen, thank.
Larry Schweikart [00:58:09] Somebody needs to do a picture of him surrounded by 4 or 5 of these school shooters. Right. The photos of the school shooter.
Stuart Turley [00:58:17] I have that. I'll have to show that next time.
David Blackmon [00:58:20] Okay. Put the Kamala Harris back up.
Larry Schweikart [00:58:24] Because it's.
David Blackmon [00:58:25] That's a great video out on Twitter. Just go out there and Google the achievements of Kamala Harris. It was just watch the video. You're going to love it.
Stuart Turley [00:58:36] It's unbelievable.
David Blackmon [00:58:39] Anyway, shortest book in history. Here we go. All right, boys, we'll talk to you next month. Thank you, everybody.
Stuart Turley [00:58:50] David.
Weekly Talking Politics with Larry Schweikart