You don't want to miss this visit with David Blackmon and Larry Schweikart, best-selling author, as they discuss the current political race. Larry is at the front of the battle lines and has all of the current polling data. Stu Turley will join them. We take questions live, so you don't want to miss out.
Highlights of the Podcast
00:02 - Introduction
01:06 - Discussion on Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
02:58 - Video Clip Discussion
07:07 - Domestic Issues
09:50 - Obama's Role in Elections
12:15 - Vote Trends
14:04 - Polling Analysis
18:45 - Hurricane Impact on Voting
20:22 - Arizona Registration Trends
22:14 - SNL commentary
30:05 - Polling trends
31:21 - Harris's media struggles
33:13 - Trump’s popularity predictions
37:28 - October surprises
39:27 - Political surprises
44:07 - Media trust issues
47:03 - Challenge of truth
49:07 - Electoral strategy
David Blackmon [00:00:02] Hey, how's everybody today? This is David Blackmon with our weekly Talkin Politics podcast with Larry Schweikart, America's. He's a history teacher, wonderful writer of a series of books that everyone needs to read. Larry, before we go into the podcast, tell us. And Stu Turley's here with us. Stu, how do you do it?
Stuart Turley [00:00:25] Yeah, it's a beautiful day in the neighborhood.
David Blackmon [00:00:27] Larry, it's good to see you, man. Tell everybody where they find your books. Before we get going here.
Larry Schweikart [00:00:33] Well, I've got the wild world of history where you can get curricula for U.S. and world history for high schoolers. Home schoolers. I teach every lesson and video. And then we've got the wild world of politics, which you had up there just a minute ago, which is where I do all my political stuff. You can get my political commentary three days a week. I put today's news up there. I can't do the news every day right now because the election's so busy. I tried to get today's news up in clumps about twice a week.
David Blackmon [00:01:06] Well, speaking of the election and a bit. My God, what a busy week. I just it's really deteriorating, I think, now for for Kamala Harris and in her maybe the worst vice presidential selection that Democrats have ever made and Tim Walz. I know we don't have any video of what's happening over the weekend, but have you ever seen anybody a shotgun like that, Larry?
Larry Schweikart [00:01:37] Well, maybe a couple of kids when we were first learning. Right, that no adult and certainly nobody who claims to have been in the military would ever do that. I mean, that was that was pathetic.
David Blackmon [00:01:50] So he claimed to have owned that gun for years and bought it when he was a busy skeet shooter, right? Yeah, sure. Right. You've obviously never handled a shotgun. I'm sorry. I keep interrupting.
Stuart Turley [00:02:02] No, I am a NRA certified instructor, range master. And that man is incompetent. And I believe, Larry, as we were getting ready for the show, which would you rather I would like to ask all of our listeners, who would you rather hunt with? Waltz, where if you drop your keys, you have to kick them all the way to the parking lot? Or Dick Cheney, where if you may end up dead, I'm not sure. Well.
David Blackmon [00:02:33] They're both.
Larry Schweikart [00:02:33] I would actually in the video, I want to see his cackles. I'm sorry, Harris. Loading a shotgun. That's the one I want to see.
David Blackmon [00:02:41] Or handling that Glock she claims claims to. Right, right, right. Yeah. I'd love to see her out. All right.
Stuart Turley [00:02:48] Well, David, we do have a video of cackles talking to Hillary about this. So if you want to play that, let's get started on that.
David Blackmon [00:02:58] Let's get started with that.
Video Speaker 1 [00:02:59] Attempt. I don't think you understand. I can't do any more interviews. I've only gotten more unlikable. Somehow, at this point, Hunter Biden has a better chance of winning. I'm concerned. Stop hiring amateurs and take him out. You know, Hilary, of all people, I didn't expect you to be, you know, mostly bark and no bite. Where are you getting these morons? Tell them to use a Glock. Just make sure it's not mine. What are you guys going to do? Try again. It's not fourth time's the charm. All right. All right? Look, I don't want to fight. I just don't understand how you can fumble something like Coachella. You know, I expected Benghazi from you, but. All right.
David Blackmon [00:03:59] Well, speaking of that. So, you know, this this alleged third assassin turns out to be a huge Trump fan who was just there for the rally, I guess. Well.
Larry Schweikart [00:04:10] Yeah, it was. This is strange. And it also smacked of a sheriff. He could be very protective and doing his job. And really concern B could be looking for some headlines. And but but this is all way too strange. And thank goodness the hoax news media didn't run with this because it could have been embarrassing.
David Blackmon [00:04:32] Yeah. And it was you know, it is a very odd thing. The guy, I guess, did have a couple of guns he says he carries around in the trunk of his car for self-protection. And then in his next breath, he says, But I've never fired a gun in my life. Well, I mean, he never fired a gun. I don't think carrying guns around your trunk even going to give me a lot. Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:04:55] No, Dave, you're not getting. He goes and he beats them over the head with the club is a good idea.
David Blackmon [00:05:02] Maybe it's Tim Walton's shotgun. He's just going to beat them. But because he can't load it. Right.
Larry Schweikart [00:05:08] A tampon. Tammy, what a week for this guy. Folks, I once again emphasize to you, stop putting the Democrats on this pedestal as these brilliant, wise, incredibly competent, capable people who have the election sewn up. You fraud. This is getting to be ridiculous. This current crop is the most incompetent bunch of politicians we have seen since Andrew Johnson. I mean, you got to go way back to come up with somebody this incompetent. They screwed up lawfare. They screwed up taking Biden out when they still could in 2023. They screwed up warfare again. They screwed up getting the Harris nomination. They didn't keep her off the ballot so they could have a fill in. And then it was too late. They replaced Biden with Harris. And then she continues the incompetence by picking this utter loser waltz. And I'm not saying she could have had. Shapiro. That's a that's a false narrative. Shapiro I would want to know part of her. He interviewed her and said, no, I don't want anything to do with this, this woman. So they are. And we saw this weekend a comment out of a Democrat in Pennsylvania saying that, quote, We can't run up the score in Philadelphia, unquote. They were saying basically you're not going to get magical boxes of votes out of Philadelphia this time. Yeah, you're going to have to get them from the rest of Pennsylvania, which she can't. So stop treating these people like they are superhumans. You know, they are not The Avengers. If anything, they're the toad men.
David Blackmon [00:06:51] But yeah, I like Keystone.
Stuart Turley [00:06:54] Enjoying David The meltdown of the media this weekend. I have never had this much fun over a weekend.
David Blackmon [00:07:01] Play that clip of J.D. Vance with Martha Raddatz. I mean, to me, that's the the.
Video Speaker Martha Raddatz [00:07:07] Limited To a handful of apartment conflicts on apartment complexes. And the mayor said our dedicated police officers have acted on those concerns. A handful of problems
Video Speaker JD Vance [00:07:21] Only Martha, do you hear yourself? Only a handful of apartment complexes in America were taken over by Venezuelan gangs. And Donald Trump is the problem and not Kamala Harris's open border. Americans are so fed up with what's going on and they have every right to be. And I really find this exchange, Martha, sort of interesting because you seem to be more focused with nit picking everything that Donald Trump has said rather than acknowledging that apartment complexes in the United States of America are being taken over by violent gangs, I worry so much more about that problem than anything else here. We've got to get American communities in a safe space again. And unfortunately, when you let people in by the millions, most of whom are unvetted, most of whom you don't know who they really are, you're going to have problems like this. Kamala Harris, 94, Executive orders that undid Donald Trump's successful border policies. We knew this stuff would happen. Bragged about opening the border and now we have the consequences and we're living with it. We can do so much better, but frankly, we're not going to do better, Martha, unless Donald Trump calls this stuff out. I'm glad that he did.
David Blackmon [00:08:30] But it just it's it boggles my mind, Larry, that they keep having him on these shows because he always makes them end up looking like a bunch of damned circus clowns. You would think they would learn and stop having him on.
Larry Schweikart [00:08:42] Well, it's the old Trump debate thing. Yeah. He may have lost one debate, but sooner or later the the polls show that he wins almost every single debate. And it's because that whether or not he's effectively debating, he is listing the problems that Americans care about and the other person isn't. And that's what Vance does really well. He knows how to bore in. And he should have said, Martha, should we put a bunch of these Venezuelan gangs in your condominium, in your apartment complex? And the fact that they're in Aurora, Colorado, and parts of Southside Chicago and not on Fifth Avenue and not in the Hamptons and not in Buckhead is really, really important. That's where these people need to be relocated. And you'd see policy change immediately.
David Blackmon [00:09:36] Yeah. I mean, remember when just 42 of them showed up on Martha's Vineyard? I mean, Biden literally called in the U.S. military to get those people off of Martha's Vineyard and take them somewhere else.
Larry Schweikart [00:09:50] Before Martha Stuart could even make them, you know, or derms. I mean. Well, hold on. I'll get my chestnut roasting pan, right.
David Blackmon [00:09:59] So another big strategic error they made this week was bringing Obama out, which is just extraordinary to me. I think it was in Pennsylvania, too. I think it was actually in Philly where he made an appearance and and just insulted black men all over the country. And it's just it's mind boggling to me that their staff is this incompetent. You're having a problem with black voters, particularly black men voters. And you bring out Obama to insult every one of his intelligence. It's it's really kind of stunning, really. You would expect better from Obama, I think.
Larry Schweikart [00:10:38] Well, they make these narratives and one of the narratives that they've had for the last 15 years or so is that Obama is really good at getting votes. Well, Obama is just fine at getting votes for Obama, for he has never, ever, ever, not ever turned out to vote for anybody else, not for any congressman, not for any senators. And he lost votes his second time around in his presidential race. So their fixation on Obama's some black Jesus, which is what our black conservative radio host here in town calls him, is just amazing. They still can't understand this guy does not draw votes out for other candidates because it's all about me. It's all about Obama and how wonderful he is. But the whole black male thing, this has been building for over a year. Richard Beras, pick this up. Over a year ago, he was signaling that the black male vote was going increasingly toward Trump. And Barris has predicted that the final will be with between 15 and 20%. And right now, it seems like almost every poll is right about 15%. So the chances are it's going to go a little bit higher. And this is a number that no Democrat can win an election with. It's too big a chunk out of your most important base.
David Blackmon [00:12:06] Yeah, it really is. And that's good. I mean, I'm thrilled to death. I. I forgot what I was going to do next.
Larry Schweikart [00:12:15] Well, you know, the warlock came out over the weekend, the Reverend Warlock, and he said, you know, cackles is doing just fine with black men. And Van Cliburn, as I call him. Yeah. Or Van Cliburn used to have those huge hands. Van Cliburn came out and said, no, he's not. He's having trouble with black men and we need to fix this so that some of the insiders are are seeing what's happening and have quietly or in James Carville's case, not so quietly called attention to the fact that they're having these big problems. The difficulty with Carville is that he's so over the top in his commentary. You miss what he's really saying. And yet these folks down here don't go and drop some votes around with all dropped cigarets on all your babies. And by the way, a harmless loser. And it's just that he and Rudy Shera and a couple of others know what's going on. And, you know, you keep getting these reports bubbling out from Wisconsin. She's under water in Wisconsin, from Michigan. She's under water in Michigan. From Pennsylvania. She's not getting out the vote in Philadelphia. Folks, when you start putting all this stuff together, this doesn't just pan out to a narrow Trump win as some of the even the more realistic guys on CNN like Harriet and say, well, it's a close election. No, it's not close. The Electoral College is not anywhere near close. Trump's going to win this by by a good 30 to 40 electoral votes over what he needs. The question is whether or not he wins the popular vote and whether or not he brings out 2 or 3 other states like Maine or Virginia or Minnesota or New Hampshire that will pad his electoral vote lead.
David Blackmon [00:14:04] Yeah, this is a key point to make about the polls. You know, we talk about it being close right now and the polls we see published, the public opinion polls. But when you really look at it, Trump is his is polling nine points better than he did in 2000 overall. He's polling six points better than he did against Hillary Clinton when he came within one 2% of winning the popular vote. So he is way ahead. I tell people I spent the whole 2016 campaign telling them to keep the faith. Don't worry about the polls. Trump is really doing better than the polls show. And now it's like. My God, he's. He's ahead everywhere. He's really ahead everywhere. And the main thing is to avoid voters staying at home and not getting out and voting. You've got to get that turnout going. And I'm afraid the one weakness in this campaign is it doesn't have much of a voter turnout focus. And that's
Larry Schweikart [00:15:04] what seem to be coming out wherever you can do early voting. They are off the charts in Virginia, for example. There's no filtering that you start off really high on weekend one. Then slowly it tails down, up until Election Day. That's not happening for Republicans. In fact, Republicans increased their vote 57% in Virginia last week over the previous week. So they are actually gaining momentum. I do believe Virginia is in play. It'll be very, very close. But given the number of early Republican voters or voters from what we call, they don't register by party in Virginia, but voters from strong Trump areas, it's just off the charts. And the same with the early ballot requests. Although overall, the ballot requests are way down between 30 and 50 and sometimes 70%, which is very good for us, it means they can't cheat. Nevertheless, the Republican share is way up on these early ballot requests and the Democrat share is way down. And what's happened in Duval County, Florida, my co-host, by the way, I'm hosting live election night coverage. Yes. At Decision USA 2024. So check us out at decision USA Online decision, USA Online. Anyway, Seth Kassell, who will be my compadre on election night, has revised his Georgia numbers based on Duval County because he found that over the years, Duval County and Georgia track almost identically. And so he now has Trump up three and a half to four points. And in Georgia, two, which is pretty solid. Georgia was probably one of the the weaker states for going into this week. And he already had him winning Pennsylvania. So Trump, under polls nationally across two polling cycles for the presidency, 2.1 points. So just look at any poll you see and add 2.1 to Trump and subtract 2.1 from Harris. And you're going to see where the real margin in the poll is. And it's Trump is over the 50% mark in the national popular vote. And he's he's up almost out of the range of error in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. All of a sudden, Bill and by the way, the last thing here is that a pollster named Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute conducted a national poll last week and Trump was he had Trump up three. But if you look in his footnotes, he says when we asked the shy Trump voter question, which is not who do you plan to vote for, but who do you think your neighbor will vote for? He said, We had Trump up outside the margin of error in every single swing state.
Stuart Turley [00:18:01] Wow.
David Blackmon [00:18:03] Wow. That's huge. That's a big deal. So what about, you know, these hurricanes, particularly the first one, Helene, was like a seeing eye hurricane. It managed to impact Republican counties in four different states, way more than Democratic counties. It just zigzagged all the way up from Florida through Tennessee. Is south are rich worried about the impact that could have on votes in really North Carolina and Georgia due to Helene in Florida due to both of those hurricanes blowing through some pretty heavily Republican areas. Is there any concern about that, having a big impact on the outcome of this thing?
Larry Schweikart [00:18:45] Well, sure. And there's a woman on Twitter named Margot at Margaux who really covers North Carolina. The Republicans have developed a a redneck army of guys on ATVs who are set to go out as soon as polling stations are open and begin driving people to the polls. North Carolina's governor, strangely, has agreed to put in a whole bunch more voting stations in the West to make it possible for people to vote. My own estimate was that it might hurt the Republicans about 40,000, which would take them take Trump from a plus four to a plus 3.5. But Republicans last weekend for the first time ever out registered Democrats.
David Blackmon [00:19:35] In North Carolina.
Larry Schweikart [00:19:37] And that that that's huge. The trends are just overwhelming. Today Seth has a column on Iowa, which, of course, Trump will win. But it's it's how shocking Iowa has moved further to the right. And every single county moved to the right. Now, I'm sorry, 17 of 19 counties moved to the right. And same thing we saw here in Maricopa. Registration here in Arizona is now close, but registrations as sort of like Democrat ballots kept trickling in at the last minute. And now Maricopa County is over 176,000 net Republicans over Democrat. So Arizona is not in play. And I did have an opportunity to.
Stuart Turley [00:20:22] Wait a minute. You said Arizona is not in play. What is it?
Larry Schweikart [00:20:25] That's correct. Arizona is safe, I think. Say. I had an opportunity to talk with Terry Lake over the weekend and she said her internals have her up and, quote, they have for some time.
Stuart Turley [00:20:38] Nice.
David Blackmon [00:20:39] Well, I hope that's right. I mean, the public polls are really not looking good for her at all, which has, you know, been kind of depressing for me because I think she's such a high potential person. It's hard for me to understand why she's not more popular other than the bikinis, of course.
Larry Schweikart [00:20:58] Yeah. I mean, shouldn't she might lose 50 or 60,000 mechanics, but, you know, you're talking about a state that's going to have between 300 and 350,000 net more Republicans than Democrats. So even if you drop out 40 or 50,000 mechanics, you're still you still have a 300,000 vote margin. And that's that's a lot to offset with independents. I mean, you're going to have to take independents by 10 or 12 points in order to offset that.
David Blackmon [00:21:32] Yeah, that's not going to happen. One of the things I'll always look at is in these races is, you know, what's what are stand up comics and comedy shows doing related to the race. And of course, Saturday Night Live has steadfastly refused to use, you know, the mind, the most rich potential satire comedy ground on the planet in Joe Biden. But and it really had also refused to do that with Kamala Harris until just these last two shows. And now suddenly, they're starting to really poke a lot of fun at Harris and Waltz and Biden, too. Do you've got that the.
Stuart Turley [00:22:14] SNL.
David Blackmon [00:22:15] You know, if you skip that they.
Video Speaker 2 [00:22:18] Give the top six answers on the board may have something that you keep in your glove compartment. V.P. Harris.
Video Speaker 3 [00:22:24] Steve, look, I was raised in a middle class family. All right.
Video Speaker 2 [00:22:30] Here we go.
Video Speaker 3 [00:22:30] Okay. My mother raised my sister and me. All right. She worked hard and saved up. Yeah. And we had a second mother, too. Okay.
Video Speaker 2 [00:22:39] Did that mother have a glove compartment?
Video Speaker 3 [00:22:42] The small business owner named Miss Shelton.
Video Speaker 2 [00:22:45] Okay, we got that. Something that you keep in, you know, compartment.
Video Speaker 3 [00:22:49] Glock.
Video Speaker 2 [00:22:55] No. Okay, so you strap on that, right? Show me the bleep, bleep, bleep you.
Stuart Turley [00:23:03] Now this to.
Video Speaker 2 [00:23:04] Democrats with controlling the board. Let's go.
David Blackmon [00:23:07] You have that idea?
Stuart Turley [00:23:10] Yes.
Video Speaker 2 [00:23:11] Name something that you keep in your glove compartment.
Video Speaker 4 [00:23:14] Wow. I mean, I can't top that. It was so perfect. I'll go with the same answer, Steve. A Glock .
Video Speaker 2 [00:23:22] Make you want to give the same answer. It seemed like a bad strategy, but show me another. That's crazy. A second one. That's the number one answer. Damn, America. All right. Let's go over to Tim Walz. Okay. Something that you're keeping your look upon me.
VIdeo Speaker 5 [00:23:43] This is right in my wheelhouse, in my glove box. I got hot pants, napkins from runs out and got to have Toms in case I eat something spicy like tomato.
Video Speaker 2 [00:23:54] If you say so. Show me some right now. If it's not up there, let's go. President Joe Biden, something that you keep in your glove box.
Video Speaker 6 [00:24:05] I like to buy a vow.
Video Speaker 2 [00:24:09] That is that's. That's the wrong game player.
Video Speaker 6 [00:24:11] Come on, Conan. What are you doing? It's me. I'm still the president. I'm Joe. I may be older, but beat the hell out of you. A pop? Yeah. I'll give you an uncle sandwich. I know how to do it. I can make sandwiches. And guess what? Here's a deal. I'm not the old one now. Trump is the only difference. I know when to walk away. That's six months too late.
Video Speaker 2 [00:24:36] Okay, show me whatever that was.
Stuart Turley [00:24:43] Okay. Here's the other one, David. Just give me a minute.
David Blackmon [00:24:50] And the whole point of this is the comedy world.
Video Speaker 7 [00:24:57] All right. Man, that felt good. And Donald doesn't think I'm black. Okay, listen up, everyone. We couldn't have gotten here without one man. And his name is Joe Biden. Get down here to Biden.
David Blackmon [00:25:18] He's looking for the perfect looking in.
Stuart Turley [00:25:23] The White.
Video Speaker 8 [00:25:26] That's right. A lot of people forget I'm President Clooney. But guess what? And by the way. I think I have a pretty good job. I've passed more real than president history. Well, folks, we still got work to do. No, Joe, I mean serious right now. What? Guess what? And by the way, the fact of the matter is. The rich dont pay. Their fair share. They got a fair share. We've got to build back better. The build back, the better. The better. To build back, the better. Can't believe it's not bother.
Video Speaker 7 [00:26:11] Thank you Joe Biden. Thank you. And I. Thanks. I just want to. Say thank you, Joe Biden, Thank you for putting country first and for handing over the reins.
Video Speaker 8 [00:26:24] I didn't want to go there. Maybe. And guess what? And by the way, the fact of the matter is, no, Joe, the serious right now. Anyway, in conclusion, me and Vice President Harris are the same.
Video Speaker 7 [00:26:41] Okay. Thank you, Joe. Thank you so much. Thank you. All right. Goodbye, Joe.
David Blackmon [00:26:50] He's just got everything down perfectly.
Larry Schweikart [00:26:53] The only thing missing was he needed a turnaround. Walked back into the curtain or something because he didn't know where he's going on the stages.
David Blackmon [00:27:01] Yeah, it's just. It's amazing. And, you know, so, I mean, throughout history, you really see these comedy shows and stand up comics being right out on the cutting edge of these societal trends. And I think Saturday Night Live can see where this election is headed. And so they're finally capitulating and starting to mine this this gold mine of parody. And, you know, I mean, and comedy that they should have been mining all along. It's just it's really criminal that they refuse to do that.
Stuart Turley [00:27:37] Well, they were ordered to look.
David Blackmon [00:27:40] Of course. Yeah. Yeah. And I guess maybe the next thing is we'll see one of the one of the late night show hosts crack and start doing the same. Probably Jimmy Fallon. Probably not yet with two guys or Hope.
Larry Schweikart [00:27:54] And those guys are awfully locked in.
David Blackmon [00:27:57] Yeah, they're really, really just bizarrely off. And. Harris So, you know, another thing that happened last week. That is just a a disaster for the campaign as they decided to put her out there on this interview blitz. And after, you know, spending two and a half months just hiding her in the basement like Joe Biden. And he was really disastrous, wasn't it? I mean, I think it was just fatal, really, to the campaign.
Stuart Turley [00:28:28] I've never seen the Saturday morning or the Sunday morning talk shows fall apart like they did on ABC and CNN. I have never seen that before. And so I think that. It is an amazing thing to see to see it falling apart.
Larry Schweikart [00:28:49] Well, you know, Stu, I never have either. And that's because I don't ever watch the show, so I wouldn't have seen them anyway.
David Blackmon [00:28:57] I don't. Watch video. I just see the clips on Twitter.
Stuart Turley [00:28:59] That's the only reason I don't watch TV either. Here's one of them from CNN that I absolutely loved.
Video Speaker 9 [00:29:06] I mean, her faves were down there struggling with I mean, the front page of The New York Times this morning. Democrats struggling with African-American voters, particularly African-American men, This gender gap issue is real. It's a real problem. And you see the Democrats reacting to it. And I think what they are now filing in October, the election coming to realize is that a lot of men think Democrats care more about dudes who want to become women than dudes who just want to be, cross play or fringy videos is going to change it. The bed is made. Working class men, whether you're black, Hispanic or white, persistently, consistently do not believe the Democratic Party and specifically Kamala Harris are going to do a thing for them. They've been told that they're the problem, and I suspect they're going to rise up on Election Day and tell the elites who told them that you're wrong. Well, it was a rough week.
David Blackmon [00:29:56] Scott Jennings is a national treasure.
Stuart Turley [00:29:59] And this other one from ABC, I thought also did an outstanding job, if you don't mind.
Video Speaker 10 [00:30:05] First time in 32 years in this poll, it shows that Republicans are beating Democrats straight up. When you ask people a generic ballot in 32 years, it shows that Donald Trump is doing better with black voters, Hispanic voters, off the charts. But what the most important thing is what happened last week is that what was working with female voters, with Kamala Harris, was that there was some feeling of joy in the air. Well, that joy is gone. She had a terrible week. She picked a pointless fight with Ron DeSantis. She you know, she was losing in the Sun Belt and she tried to recover by going on The View, which a lot of women watch. She went on The View. You talked about it earlier, and she wanted to clarify the two most important issues that are facing these two candidates, the economy and immigration. And she bombed like Rory at the US Open, and she went out there and said there was nothing she would do that would be different than Joe Biden. And she created a campaign commercial for Donald Trump. And so she's trying to recover. There is no way and everybody knows it. And it's obvious that there is a leak in the balloon here and the Kamala Harris campaign.
Stuart Turley [00:31:21] Isn't that amazing?
David Blackmon [00:31:22] Yeah. Martha Raddatz always looks like she's about to break down crying. But I always wondered what happened to Reince Priebus. And now I know he's been hanging out with the people on ABC.
Larry Schweikart [00:31:31] Well, it's clear that he knows where things are going and that he's trying to get on the good side of Trump again. You watch all these rants that abandoned the ship in 2020 and they're swimming back to the USS Trump. Right. Because they know it's going to be the ship that will be at sea for the next four years. The whole thing about black men. It's astounding to me that they even want to continue to deny this. The only question again is not will a large portion of black men and Hispanics and men Overall, Trump is killing it with men overall, like Manning up 20 points or so. It's how big how big are these margins going to be? Because the size of those margins, my shift to places like Virginia and Mexico, Minnesota, New Mexico in and if you want to even dig deeper, I think we're down to the third tier of battleground states now, given some of the most recent polls, which is New York and New Jersey. No, I don't think he's going to get in New York, but he's going to give him a hell of a scare in New York.
Stuart Turley [00:32:42] Madison Square.
David Blackmon [00:32:43] Now, he is four Madison Square Garden this week. It's going to be gigantic.
Larry Schweikart [00:32:48] And that's part of it that reflects the campaign's confidence now that they're doing Coachella and they're doing Madison Square Garden. And no, they're not. As some idiots on Twitter constantly hand-wringing and fret, they're not going to the battleground states, for God's sake, people. Can you walk and chew gum at the same time?
Stuart Turley [00:33:09] You think he has a chance to get the popular vote?
Larry Schweikart [00:33:13] I do. I think he's got a very good chance to get the popular vote. I think. Yes. Vote by more than one.
David Blackmon [00:33:21] Yeah. This race is shaping up. It really has. Since they inserted Harris into it, it's acted a lot like 1980 when the Democrat Jimmy Carter had a sizable lead right up until. October. And then you just started seeing and really, of course, I think of this race is surely been over since mid-September, but. Well that you really.
Larry Schweikart [00:33:47] Just train having just written the book on Reagan.
David Blackmon [00:33:51] Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:33:51] Yeah. Carter actually trailed in all their internal polls well, up until the end of October. But suddenly he jumped enough in late October that Dick worth one went to Reagan and said, Carter is gaining on us in the polls. I think I need to do that debate. And it was only when Carter started to gain in the polls that Reagan agreed to do that. That famous debate, which was the last Saturday before the election. So but it does have that same feel that you started off with a very fairly narrow Electoral College win. And now the states are starting to break toward Trump in fairly rapid succession. I don't know about Colorado. I think Colorado may still be out of bounds. Oregon, Washington are still out of bounds. You know, obviously places like Vermont, Delaware, Maryland. But I think there's a soft underbelly of a lot of these other states, including maybe New Jersey, that a truly outstanding Republican turnout might shock people.
David Blackmon [00:35:01] Yeah. And we need that turnout. It's. Yes. You know, if we can't have another election like we had in 12 where 6 million evangelicals stayed home, who would have otherwise voted for Rubio?
Stuart Turley [00:35:14] We need to plan on the 2:00 unloading of harvested ballots. I do want to give a shout out to the dark net. Net net you. He is the black insurrectionist and he has just released a bombshell on x and he was given last night a statement from the victim of Tim Walz to release this morning. I must tell you, the victims never result. He's got a whole trail of bad things on Tim Walz. It is really, really bad. And his wife is involved with this. It is horrific.
Larry Schweikart [00:36:00] Well, I would say until you get a name associated with that affidavit that can be validated and checked out. Trump should stay as far away from that as possible. This absolute earmarks of a of a dirty trick on black insurrectionist. And he he needs to be careful. He says he has it but so far we haven't seen it. I've seen his affidavits, but everything's blacked out. So that doesn't help anybody. And he's going to need more than one person. He's going to need multiple, multiple people confirming what this one person says.
David Blackmon [00:36:32] And by the way, this is the same guy who supposedly had the whistleblower from ABC after that first debate that said it claimed to have all this internal correspondence about how things were rigged for that first debate between Trump and Harris. And he never did. You know, I mean, he put out a bunch of stuff like.
Larry Schweikart [00:36:54] But then he died. Remember, he died in a car crash, supposedly.
David Blackmon [00:36:58] Supposedly the guy. But we never learned the person's name. We still like insurrectionist name.
Stuart Turley [00:37:04] But we did find out that it did happen. So I'm I'm willing to say that, you know, A, there was collusion. So I am as you're saying, I'm not putting it out there. But on the other hand, trust no one. You know, and I and I think this is not the October surprise. I think we've got some gigantic things coming around the corner.
David Blackmon [00:37:28] We're going to.
Larry Schweikart [00:37:28] Have to hurry. It's the 14th of October and they got two weeks to roll something out. Now, we remember in 2000 that that they brought out the George W Bush d w I charge literally the last weekend and that probably cost him a couple million votes and probably is what allowed Al Gore to drag it into the the courts for for several weeks. But like I say, they're going to have to hurry and we can't keep going. Well, what about this? What about that? What are they going to do? They need to worry about what we're going to do. We need to get our side in the mindset that all they think about when they put their feet on the ground, get out of bed in the morning is what the hell is the Republicans going to do to us today? My God, What are they going to say? That is what needs to be on their minds.
Stuart Turley [00:38:25] How do we clone Scott Pressler for every state?
David Blackmon [00:38:29] Yeah, that'd be awesome. That would be awesome. He's done so much good in Pennsylvania. It's amazing. And I want to clarify one thing about black insurrectionists. Even though I think we we have to remain skeptical about that until we have names and real proof. Literally nothing would surprise me about Tim Hortons. This is a weird, weird dude with an incredibly weird backstory. And we should mention
Larry Schweikart [00:39:01] he teaches football. Not coaches throwing teachers football. This is somebody who's never coached football in his life.
David Blackmon [00:39:07] Let's remember that his players called him Sandusky. So, I mean, and anyone who knows who Jerry Sandusky is and knows his story, that probably gives you a fairly good understanding of anyway.
Stuart Turley [00:39:24] And the horses are very nervous around him.
David Blackmon [00:39:27] Yeah. So nothing. But again, you're right. There's three weeks left. There's time for some more surprises. We probably haven't seen the big one yet. You know, this was mid-October was about the time the Hunter Biden laptop story broke in 2000 or 2020. And of course, we have the media blackout about about that one and the 51 former intelligence professionals signing that false letter and paid zero price for doing that. So there's no telling what the Democrats might try to pull between now and then or the report.
Stuart Turley [00:40:04] I would love to see the Anthony Weiner laptop come out, the one that has 12 men look at it and ten of the 12 are dead.
David Blackmon [00:40:13] Yeah. Now, the next thing in control of the FBI, we'll never see that. Yeah, well we might.
Larry Schweikart [00:40:20] Be delisting the whole P Diddy stuff. Of course, the very first thing that's a leak out is Kanye West because he's crazy and easy to discredit. And B, at one time he was closer to Trump than some of these other people. So, of course, that's going to be the one they leak, not the Hillary Clinton or the, you know, the Will Smith or any of these other people.
Stuart Turley [00:40:47] The little the. The last thing. Sorry. I'm sorry, David. The list goes on. The P. Diddy thing goes not only through all of the Hollywood and the satanic rituals and everything else, and it's just mind blowing to see that. But you have the Obamas at the parties. You have all these other I and then you have Prince Harry. Holy smokes. This thing goes like far or wide and horrible.
Larry Schweikart [00:41:18] Well, Harry, the Ginger Duke, you know, this guy has been injured and makes it his wife makes it makes it the ginger duke of just been weirdos from day one, you know, And I'm sure the royal family wish they would have stayed in in America. But I've got a story for you guys in 2016. I don't get to tell us to know. It is so fun. But I have a friend in Hollywood who, of course, wanted to remain unnamed, but he was basically required to attend a party by one. It's not Weinstein, but it was a name up there with Weinstein, one of the really bigs, and Spielberg and all the other bigs were at this party right on election night. And he said they were it was to be an election watch party where they're all going to cheer Hillary getting elected. And as as the numbers turned against her, this guy over Hood overheard a heated argument where one guy was talking to the host, yelling at him, going, I just gave $1 million to her last week and you assured me she was going to win. So that's what's going on in Hollywood.
Stuart Turley [00:42:26] My.
David Blackmon [00:42:27] Yeah. So I yeah, I think on the Diddy thing, you know, they raided his California home and his Florida home. The FBI did. And people are saying, well, they're looking for evidence. I don't think that's what they were doing at all. I think they were looking for the videos so that they could take them into custody and make sure they don't become public. And Diddy is never going to set foot outside of that prison.
Stuart Turley [00:42:52] But what about their shopping? Several of the A-listers with the media for millions of dollars and they're in contact with the A-list person. Is it the Obamas, Michelle and Mara? I don't know. I mean.
David Blackmon [00:43:10] That's the problem. That's the problem with the videos. There isn't just one copy of those videos, right?
Stuart Turley [00:43:15] Exactly.
David Blackmon [00:43:16] Yeah. So, you know, I think it was that the FBI has got a huge problem in the Justice Department because they can't take that into trial if they take that to trial. The client list or the party list, whatever you want to call it, has all this overlap with the wine tasting list and, you know, in the Epstein list. And so it's all the same people, the same public figures, enormously powerful people in Hollywood and in the Democratic Party, and some Republicans, too. And, you know, it's it's how are you going to control that information flow if you take in the channel? But if you don't take him to trial. You got to kill it. Mean, he has to quote commit suicide in released.
Larry Schweikart [00:44:07] Yeah. I mean, you know, you have to take somebody to trial within a reasonable time or he can get released.
David Blackmon [00:44:13] Right.
Larry Schweikart [00:44:14] You know this I'm working on this book for next year called America in the 21st Century. And it's particularly hard. It's the hardest book I've ever written, because when you think about it, the way a historian does his craft is you look at all the other things that have been written by other historians about Andrew Jackson or the Civil War, that progressive era World War Two. And you can quickly sift through what are the important events, what are the important developments. But when you're starting really from scratch, as I am, it's really hard to make sense of what have been the most important developments and what's what's happening. And I think that we've seen two things. One regarding the FBI here, but it goes to a bigger issue, and that is that the media originally, especially the Internet, was a source of information. You could go on the Internet and type in how do I change a flat tire and get an immediate response? Now you get throw ads for tire companies, Jack, companies and other things. And this is symbolic of how difficult the Internet has become in terms of being productive and actual use. Right. Well, the other thing that has happened, and this is largely due to the FBI is that through the Russia hoax, they have now become totally untrustworthy, Lots of other things. But but mainly that the FBI now is not trustworthy. When so when they say, well, the Chinese are trying to hack an election, maybe they are. Maybe they are. But we sure don't believe you've got to believe them. And so we are now in an age it's very interesting. We've never had this before in American history where all of our primary source materials are questionable. Now, how do you make sure an FBI memo is, you know, real? And one thing, this is just a side thing. I was reading something on the Kennedy John Kennedy assassination from a conspiracy theorist, and he said something I never thought of before, which was that all the interviews of Lee Harvey Oswald had already been doctored by the CIA. So think of this. Even if they release all the Kennedy papers, even if they release the P Diddy tapes, now we're at the point where people aren't sure they can even believe that. Have those been doctored? Have those been deep faked? Have those been altered? And so the nature of what we believe in terms of facts, daily information has now been challenged to where you really can't believe anything anybody puts out.
David Blackmon [00:47:03] Yeah. And so that creates an enormous problem for our society because there is no no more honest brokers of what is and is not truth in our society. And how do you hold a country and a democratic republic together in that kind of an atmosphere? Because you can't trust the government, you can't trust the media, you can't trust the Internet. You can barely trust your neighbors. It's just going to be a real challenge to hold this all together in the years to come. I don't envy my children and their children's future in such a world.
Larry Schweikart [00:47:43] Well, you know, it's interesting in looking at who to believe. Economists, Most of them are still more trustworthy than most because they put out a fairly narrow study of whether or not oil from the Permian Basin is profitable. And then they will put it out and then other economists will challenge that with data. And it's still a pretty good back and forth. You aren't getting that with anything in the social sciences or the liberal arts, right? Now, you put the major journals will not accept new articles. If you came up with new new stuff, the hidden treasure trove of George Washington's papers, if you did not slant that in the area of race, class, gender, you wouldn't get it published in the Journal of American History. It's astounding. So, you know, economists are the few people I still believe in them only when they have cross checkers.
David Blackmon [00:48:44] Yeah, except for that Krugman guy at The New York Times. Right.
Larry Schweikart [00:48:47] He's got economists. He's the ferret.
David Blackmon [00:48:51] Guy. Well, guys, we got three weeks left. It's coming down to the wire. Yeah, I wish. Honestly, I wish the Election Day was tomorrow. I'd feel pretty good about it. But who knows what's going to happen in the next three weeks?
Larry Schweikart [00:49:07] Well, just like I say, don't take the attitude. What are they going to do to us? What? What surprised you again? A spring on us. We need to take the attitude of what are we going to do to them in three weeks? We got three weeks to get. New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota and Virginia. And then we can work on New Jersey and New York and a couple other Let's get them all in our column. So it is so humiliating that maybe, just maybe, the Democrats are actually forced to do self reflection and become a real political party again.
David Blackmon [00:49:41] Yeah, that would be nice. That would. And that's what it would take to write. You'd have to have a massive landslide, a repudiation of everything they've been doing. And unfortunately, it's hard to see that being in the cards, but you never know.
Larry Schweikart [00:49:55] Well, you know, it was the repudiation of 88 that created the Democrat Leadership Council that eventually led to Al Gore and Bill Clinton coming into politics and Clinton getting to be president. It was strictly out of that. We got to change the way we look at things because the people aren't by. And Dukakis. Yeah.
David Blackmon [00:50:15] No, that's another other episode. Yeah. Dukakis in the tank. Well, gentlemen, that's good for this week. I think we've covered everything. And I'm looking forward to next Monday already. All right. All right. All right. Thank you, guys. Thanks, everyone.
Stuart Turley [00:50:36] See you David.
Talking Politics with Larry Schweikart