When will people realise that building more wind and solar capacity will not help because at night when there is little or no wind there will be little or no power generation regardless of the amount of installed capacity.
All of the states and nations striving to achieve net zero by wind and solar will be caught in the "wind drought trap." The trap is set slowly over some years as subsidies and mandates for unreliable energy displace conventional power without being able to replace it.
There is a “frog in the saucepan” effect because conventional power retires in small steps and that does not cause problems in the early years while there is spare capacity.
The trap closes when the conventional power capacity (traditionally dominated by coal) declines to a critical point, a “tipping point” where there is not enough to meet the base load overnight. Then the grid is in a “red zone” where windless nights are potentially lethal because there is no wind or solar generation, regardless of the amount of installed capacity.
The incompetence or negligence of the official meteorologists around the world allowed this situation to develop because they didn’t issue wind drought warnings even though they know that high pressure systems are associated with low wind speeds.
Consequently, the Dunkelflautes came as a surprise in Europe although mariners and millers must have experienced them for centuries.
There is an urgent need to find out why the meteorologists failed to warn us about wind droughts and why energy planners didn’t check the reliability and continuity of the wind supply.. Imagine embarking on a major irrigation project without forensic investigation of the water supply including historical rainfall figures.
When will people realise that building more wind and solar capacity will not help because at night when there is little or no wind there will be little or no power generation regardless of the amount of installed capacity.
All of the states and nations striving to achieve net zero by wind and solar will be caught in the "wind drought trap." The trap is set slowly over some years as subsidies and mandates for unreliable energy displace conventional power without being able to replace it.
https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-7-intermittent-solar-and-wind-power-can-displace-coal-but-cannot-replace-it
There is a “frog in the saucepan” effect because conventional power retires in small steps and that does not cause problems in the early years while there is spare capacity.
The trap closes when the conventional power capacity (traditionally dominated by coal) declines to a critical point, a “tipping point” where there is not enough to meet the base load overnight. Then the grid is in a “red zone” where windless nights are potentially lethal because there is no wind or solar generation, regardless of the amount of installed capacity.
The incompetence or negligence of the official meteorologists around the world allowed this situation to develop because they didn’t issue wind drought warnings even though they know that high pressure systems are associated with low wind speeds.
Consequently, the Dunkelflautes came as a surprise in Europe although mariners and millers must have experienced them for centuries.
https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf
There is an urgent need to find out why the meteorologists failed to warn us about wind droughts and why energy planners didn’t check the reliability and continuity of the wind supply.. Imagine embarking on a major irrigation project without forensic investigation of the water supply including historical rainfall figures.
https://quadrant.org.au/news-opinions/climate-change/no-gusts-no-glory/