1 Comment
User's avatar
Rafe Champion's avatar

"Global warming is a global problem by definition."

What is the problem Joe? The warming in modern times has been unequivocally beneficial and we are probably still short of the temperature during the Roman warm period which was even more favourable for life on earth. Similarly, the post-industrial increase in the level of CO2 has been literally life-saving because in the little ice age the level of CO2 was barely enough to keep the plants alive.

The real worry is wind droughts.

A warning from The Energy Realists of Australia

https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/a-warning-from-the-energy-realists

Around the Western world, subsidised and mandated wind and solar power have been displacing conventional power in the electricity supply. Consequently, most of the grids in the west are moving towards a point where the lights will flicker at nights when the wind is low. This is a “frog in the saucepan” effect and it only starts to worry people when it is too late. It may be too late for Britain and Germany.

https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/

Consider the ABC of intermittent energy generation.

A. Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.

B. The continuity of RE is broken on nights with little or no wind.

C. There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.

Therefore, the green transition is impossible with current storage technology.

The rate of progress towards the tipping point will accelerate as demand is swelled by AI and electrification at large.

In SE Australia, the NEM, the transition to unreliable wind and solar power has just hit the wall with the coal capacity declining from 29GW to 22GW with the closure of ten coal plants since 2012. 17 to 20GW is the base load that is required through the night, There is limited hydro, some gas for the evening peak and of course no nuclear.

If any coal capacity is off line for scheduled or unscheduled maintenance the supply will teeter on the brink of failure and any more coal closures will guarantee power outages on windless nights.

The contribution of wind and solar has increased to approach 40% on average but obviously there is next to RE generated at night when there is little or no wind.

Britain and Germany have passed the tipping point and entered a “red zone,” keeping the lights on precariously with imports and deindustrialization to reduce demand.

The meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings and the irresponsible authorities never checked the wind supply! They even missed the Dunkelflautes that must have been known to mariners and millers for centuries!

https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf

There is an urgent need to find out why the meteorologists failed to warn us about wind droughts and why energy planners didn’t check. Imagine a farmer taking up a property without checking the water supply, including historical rainfall figures, looking at the risk of crippling droughts!

https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/the-late-discovery-of-wind-droughts

https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/we-have-to-talk-about-wind-droughts

https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/escaping-the-wind-drought-trap

https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/wind-and-solar-the-energy-thieves

https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/can-we-have-a-climate-science-debate

https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/lessons-from-the-world-wind-leaders

Expand full comment