Are Electric Vehicles making a comeback? Join the international Realities team live from Bulgaria, the UK, and the US to discuss this and many more realities hitting the energy world. Irina Slav, David Blackmon, Tammy Nemeth, and Stu Turley will all join for a fun discussion about our ever-changing world around energy.
Highlights of the Podcast
02:30 – Discussion on Electric Vehicles (EVs)
08:15 – Government Policies and Subsidies
15:40 – Challenges of Autonomous Vehicles
19:20 – Economic Impact of EV Policies
26:37 – School district turns to diesel after attempt to convert bus fleet to electric proves disastrous
29:00 – How booming electricity demand is stalling efforts to retire coal and gas, in Charts
32:51 – Clean fuel startups were supposed to be the next big thing. Now they are collapsing
35:29 – Electric Car Sales plummet 37% in Germany as slump deepens
39:11 – Drivers of hydrogen cars are annoyed at California. But they’re suing Toyota
42:01 – Orsted books new losses, flags, delay at U.S. offshore wind project.
44:17 – Are EVs Really climate friendly?
44:53 – Can the West afford to build its own copper industry?
46:40 – Discussion on Censorship and Environmental Concerns
47:42 – Environmental Trade-offs and Wind Turbines
49:02 – Global Environmental Actions
53:18 – Closing Remarks
International Author writing about energy, mining, and geopolitical issues. Bulgaria
Principal at DB Energy Advisors, energy author, and podcast host.Principal at DB Energy Advisors, energy author, and podcast host.
Energy Consulting Specialist
President, and CEO, Sandstone Group, Podcast Host
Energy Realities – Electric Vehicles
David Blackmon [00:00:04] Hey, look. We're live.
Irina Slav [00:00:06] We're live.
Stuart Turley [00:00:07] All right, here we go. Hang on, hang on, guys, hang.
Irina Slav [00:00:20] Hello everyone. This is the Energy Reality podcast, and today Tammy Nemeth is having some technical issues. So she'll be with us a bit later. But I've got Stu Turley and David Blackmon with me here. How are you guys? How's all this treating you
David Blackmon [00:00:43] hot. Oh my God. It's hot in North Texas. Man 105 yesterday.
Irina Slav [00:00:47] It's never happened before.
David Blackmon [00:00:49] never ever.
Stuart Turley [00:00:50] I'll tell you, I had a dry run for a disaster. Saturday, a tornado, many tornado came ripping through. We lost power, and all my neighbors are all screaming, going. We lost power. And I'm skipping around going. I am testing my system and generators. I'm what we're here, doing here. And I'm going. I like me a good disaster to make sure I'm ready for it.
Irina Slav [00:01:15] So how's the system? Is it working?
Stuart Turley [00:01:17] Works great.
Irina Slav [00:01:21] Excellent.
Stuart Turley [00:01:22] So, you know what was a good disaster
Irina Slav [00:01:25] Today We going to do something we have never, ever done before on this show or anywhere else. Are we going to talk about electric vehicles and how they have been faring lately? David's.
David Blackmon [00:01:42] Well. It's it's a, it's a deteriorating situation, in the United States for electric vehicles. You know, and we've talked about this, in the past, they're just not sustainable business models without steadily increasing subsidies. And we we enacted the Inflation Reduction Act two years ago that had a beefed up subsidy in it. Which is, of course, just the down payment on the multi-trillion dollar cost of the overall Green New Deal. And, so I think the Democrats had anticipated, having a supplemental Inflation Reduction Act enacted by now. That hasn't happened. It's not going to happen. We we are adding $1 trillion to the federal debt every 100 days now in the United States. So the thought that we're going to do another multi-trillion dollar subsidy bill for electric vehicles and other green energy is just a pipe dream. That's never going to happen. That leaves the electric vehicle segment in the United States, teetering, teetering on the brink of, what would be not just extinction, but a just a permanent irrelevance, in the overall U.S. vehicle market. You know, they they have, increased their share of vehicle sales here in the United States, but it's still in single digits. It's not likely to rise above single digits any time soon. And and so what's ultimately going to be the outcome of all of this is that, all these mandates and targets that have been put in place by this administration are going to start being extended further out into the future and eventually forgotten about entirely as the as the, legacy automakers like Ford and GM regroup and focus more on hybrid cars and their their standard Ice vehicles. The heavier SUVs that people actually want to buy. And, this is just going to end up being the latest in a long line of failed experiments of trying to bring the electric vehicle business in the United States up to societal scale. This has been happening off and on for 140 years, and it's nothing new. And in the outcome was entirely predictable.
Irina Slav [00:04:06] Yeah. As usual. Can you hear us, Tammy?
Tammy Nemeth [00:04:10] I can hear you now.
David Blackmon [00:04:15] Yes, Tammy. Yes. All right. Hey, we're getting your crickets. It's awesome. We've never had crickets on the show before.
Tammy Nemeth [00:04:19] I know, and you know, the bad part is, is they're in the house.
Irina Slav [00:04:24] that's not good.
Tammy Nemeth [00:04:25] That's not good.
Stuart Turley [00:04:27] Well, you. Know, Tammy, you can eat crickets, so it's a good thing they're a good source of protein.
Irina Slav [00:04:31] Yeah, but you just have to catch them first. And you have to be happy. You have to be happy.
Tammy Nemeth [00:04:38] If maybe they'll start giving advice like Jiminy Cricket.
David Blackmon [00:04:42] That's the morning, Robert
Irina Slav [00:04:44] Morning, Robert.
Stuart Turley [00:04:46] Hey. Well, we get ready for the Inflation Reduction Act. I just did a grocery check on it, and it is amazing. It said that, some reports hilariously mention only eight charges for billions spent. But that might be an oversimplified oversimplification or misrepresentation. I've actually got a picture of the Biden administration and trying to figure out what they're going to do for the EV. So hang on. Let's take a look at this. This is the Biden administration, as they're taking a look and taking care of the workers in the Detroit Zoo. Now here's the rest of the American public. Sitting here looking around, going. All right. So we're on a plane going nowhere.
Irina Slav [00:05:37] yeah. But carmakers, as David said, are already starting to wake up Tammy in Europe. EV sales, declining. It's not just a slowdown in demand. It's a decline. Do you think anybody in in Canada or the US is watching this and possibly taking notes?
Tammy Nemeth [00:06:00] No, I don't think so. Not at all. In Canada. I mean, they're they're throwing so much government money into all of the sort of heavy, subsidization of the batteries and constructing the vehicles. And like the irony there, they claim to be building all of these chargers. And, it's kind of funny because we did this road trip and we're going through these different urban areas and there'll be, you know, chargers at a mall or something like that, and there'll be one car charging.
David Blackmon [00:06:31] Yeah
Irina Slav [00:06:32] there's no more than I see at my local mall. That's right. Inspiration with I think six chargers. Never seen a car there. I don't go every day. So maybe at some point somebody charges them. But every time I pass that station, not a single car.
Tammy Nemeth [00:06:50] Well, I think part of the problem is we were talking to some friends and they were saying that in in the different cities, the grid can't handle the number of home chargers that would be required for, having EVs. And so there's a limit of I think it's a maximum of three EVs in a neighborhood. So, you. Know, like, seriously. So people are saying, well, maybe I should if I, if I put in a charger, I can make sure that my neighbor doesn't get one because there's a limit like three EV three allowed in a neighborhood. So
Irina Slav [00:07:25] you save your neighbors the trouble of buying an EV and building a charge.
David Blackmon [00:07:29] My goodness.
Tammy Nemeth [00:07:30] Right. So I mean, sometimes they'll they'll be subsidies to put in the home chargers, but usually people have to pay for it. And it's about 20,000 CAD to put in a home charger because they have to change how they hook it up and all these different kinds of things. So I'm really not sure they've thought this through. Like what? So everybody's supposed to, charge at the, the big local charging facility. What, catch an Uber home. I don't understand.
Irina Slav [00:08:00] Yeah, but wait a minute. Weren't EVs really great? Because you can just come home with the EV and then plug it into the normal socket.
Tammy Nemeth [00:08:12] Supposedly, and then they're supposed to be able to extract energy from it when they need.
Irina Slav [00:08:17] Yeah, they did that. Yeah. What's up with that? So apparently this wasn't true.
Tammy Nemeth [00:08:25] No. But okay. So let's say let's let's think this through. Let's say you have your car, your car plugged in, but there's, a case of don't go flat. Right. So the, the wind turbines aren't turning and there's no energy being produced. So they have to draw from your car, and then you're thinking, I'm going to get into my car in the morning instead.
David Blackmon [00:08:46] Yeah,
Tammy Nemeth [00:08:47] So how are you supposed to get to work? Or if you're at work charging and they need your your car to power your computer at work or something and you know.
David Blackmon [00:08:55] Yeah.
David Blackmon [00:08:55] And the big problem in, in the areas where there have been a lot of EV sales in California and in some metro areas in the northeast, you know, the big problem there is people having to wait in line for hours at these public charging stations, because so many people are pulling up to these chargers and trying to get a 100% charge in their battery when they're only designed to do about 75 to 80% charge. And so it takes you 15 minutes to get to 75%, but it might take you an hour to get to 100% on these chargers. They're not designed to do that. And and so that's that's a huge problem. And now there was a story over the weekend of oh man I forget what city it was now, enacting a local ordinance, fining people if they sit at the charger too long. So that's that's where we're going with that.
Irina Slav [00:09:49] Although the charger holds the charger.
David Blackmon [00:09:51] Plug your clogs. Yeah yeah yeah, yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:09:54] Oh, but there's also I just sent this story around. I can't remember if I sent it earlier, but so if the alternative is that there's public EVs that will come, they're self-driving and they will come and pick you up and whatever. In San Francisco, there's a case of the Waymo, self-driving, autonomous EVs that go to this parking lot, and they're keeping everybody awake because they're beeping and their lights are flashing and they're driving around in circles. So like, it's on them is self-driving vehicles are just behaving very erratically in the middle of the night, like at four in the morning. And it's driving the people crazy. And the police show up to find whoever's making the disturbance. But there's nobody to find because the EV is there's no one driving the EV.
Irina Slav [00:10:41] this circle, this whole absurdity.
Stuart Turley [00:10:45] There's there's way too much in, government control being able to be locked into the car. Tucker Carlson has it right when he has a 1965 pickup. That has no electronics on it. The the phone, the the one that just got me was a lady with a Toyota, a brand new Toyota. When you, have everything on your app and the amount of government information from the new cars, not even not necessarily just an EV, but the amount of intrusion that comes in from the government as well as listening to your car and the availability is frightening. I am going to a 1943 Willys four wheel drive car. I want no electronics.
David Blackmon [00:11:47] Robert De Dominico makes a great point here. I've been in submarine nuclear propulsion, commercial nuclear power for four decades, and it's obvious that nothing about these EV mandates and subsidies has been thought through. And that's that's actually 100% correct. I interviewed, Doctor Angela Wilkinson, who's the CEO of the World Energy Council recently, and her theme throughout that interview was that the biggest problem in all of this is that there's no systems thinking being applied to any of this. The IRA was just this disjointed collection of subsidies and tax breaks that didn't have any real overarching plan in mind for them, except to flood a bunch of money into these green energy solutions. And and so what you're getting is all this ramping up of investments in various aspects of the and an energy transition without any overarching plan to integrate all of it. And so you end up with building, you know, all these electric vehicles without the chargers and with with inadequate battery technology. And so it doesn't work and people get pissed off about it and stop buying the products and it ends, it fails. And so it's all going to fail because there's no overarching plan. And my response to that. Of course, was, well, I live in the United States, where there's simply no ability for the central government to engage in any sort of systems thinking, overarching plan, all this those kinds of plans get developed in communist countries. And, you know, with the Soviet Union's five year plans and China's 50 year plans and all that kind of stuff, we don't have the capability of doing that in the United States. I know the EU is trying to do that in Europe, as as the overarching government authority, but I sense it's really failing there too. Right?
Irina Slav [00:13:42] Of course it is. Yeah, it's because the tools, let's have more subsidies and let's mandate EVs in this case. Yeah. Yes. There's no organic way this is going to happen. And it's not even happening with the subsidies and with the mandates.
Tammy Nemeth [00:13:59] Well, it's it's because if you think of how the EU issues, the issue command issue directives, like it's a directive from the EU. Yeah. So it's one of these things and I think that Canada does this as well. It's like we're telling you this is what we want. Make it so. And they're just assuming you can wave a magic wand and boom, everything will be just materialize out of nowhere. And you know, the thing is, David, I would say they believe they're using system thinking. They believe that they've constructed this a grand plan. And this is the system. They all the things that are required. And I hear this all the time from environmental groups is that, the oil and gas industry and the critics are slowing it down. We're slowing it down.
David Blackmon [00:14:53] Yeah. You got to have a man to blame it on.
Tammy Nemeth [00:14:55] exactly?
David Blackmon [00:14:56] Yeah. Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:14:57] Well, that because we're we're pointing out the flaws in it. And if only we would shut up, it would all just fall into place.
Irina Slav [00:15:04] These people would believe this.
Tammy Nemeth [00:15:05] They seriously believe that we're stopping people from doing their part, and they believe that it's crazy.
Irina Slav [00:15:13] We're making a difference.
David Blackmon [00:15:17] Yeah. And then they then they after they find their boogeyman and blame the boogeyman, then they double down on the stupid policy that was that failed to begin with.
Irina Slav [00:15:26] Yeah, I actually saw something on the I think you posted, I don't know, somebody else from Substack. That is the oil industry that's paying to all the climate skeptics and all the crazy, you know, we just have the eyes to see and the brains to process what we see. It's.
David Blackmon [00:15:46] You know, I wish.
Irina Slav [00:15:47] I could believe it would have been all great if we just shut up. Yeah, yeah.
David Blackmon [00:15:52] I kind of wish they were paying us, you know, use the income, you know? I mean, I really could use the income, but
Irina Slav [00:16:01] at least. Yeah. Yeah. Yes.
Stuart Turley [00:16:04] But then we'd be eating Tammy's crickets.
Tammy Nemeth [00:16:07] Yeah.
David Blackmon [00:16:08] Well, that's what close
Irina Slav [00:16:11] The oil industry is supposed to be generous to its shills. At least that's what people say.
Tammy Nemeth [00:16:18] That's what they say.
David Blackmon [00:16:19] That's what I hear.
Tammy Nemeth [00:16:23] No proof of that. But, hey.
David Blackmon [00:16:24] There is no proof of that in my checking account, though.
Stuart Turley [00:16:29] It's amazing that we have with a Democrat convention going on this week. Speaking of the Inflation Reduction Act, or as Dan Bongino calls it, the pork bellies bill. We have the, Democrat convention going on, and there is a guy on ex that I find very humorous. He has, geo fenced phones that are there. There are over 100,000 anti-fur folks in Chicago. And by being defined by Antifa means that you've been to three or more anti-fur events protesting for the Democrats.
Tammy Nemeth [00:17:11] Wow.
Irina Slav [00:17:12] for what they had.
Stuart Turley [00:17:16] Yeah. So they've also got brick. So instead of a welcome back to the convention, they've got bags of bricks for people then to throw at police. I am serious. We are going to have so much fun watching the Democrat convention. I don't think that we're going to see the Inflation Reduction Act survive. I mean, excuse me, the Kamala Harris. I personally think she's going to get pulled, but that's my opinion. I could be 100% wrong.
Tammy Nemeth [00:17:50] Robert has another good point there. I can't put it up. He he's got to actually. Yeah. That one.
David Blackmon [00:17:58] Oops.
Tammy Nemeth [00:17:59] Without exception, government makes more money on oil than oil companies by a factor of five. Yeah.
Irina Slav [00:18:06] It spends a lot, a lot more than oil companies, because they try to stay within some reasonable limits of spending versus income while the government doesn't care. Right. Well, if it's the US government, the EU governments, although they're starting to care because they're starting to run out of money, so they're phasing out EV subsidies.
Stuart Turley [00:18:28] But but isn't it like California with losing Chevron's tax? They spent, 15, $14 billion or whatever the number was in federal and state taxes. You a state has now lost that revenue stream as they leave California by.
David Blackmon [00:18:49] Yeah. Yeah. You know, the average profit margin at a gas station on a gallon of gasoline is a penny or two, 1 or $0.02. That's that's what they make. And, you know, they they all make their money on you getting out of your car, starting to fill up your tank, going in there and paying $2.49 for a Diet Coke. That costs them $0.03 to provide to you. Right. That's where they're making their money. Folks, they're not making it on the gasoline. But the with the state tax in California on a gallon of gasoline is $1.18 per gallon. Okay. And that's that doesn't include the climate change tax that the state imposes and the pollution reduction fee that the state imposes, and all the other fees that they impose. I mean, the state of California probably makes $2 a gallon on every gallon of gas sold in the state. So.
Irina Slav [00:19:39] Yes. And they just ask refiners to stockpile gasoline and diesel. Which is which which money is of profiteering? How arrogant exactly are these people? And that's a good question.
Stuart Turley [00:19:58] The one that gets me also is the new Kamala plan on how to attack price increases. Was basically saying they're going to go after profiteering and and everything else. And this was communism. Like at 300%. I'm like going. Has anybody read an economics one on one course in this administration?
David Blackmon [00:20:23] No.
Tammy Nemeth [00:20:23] But it's it's like another example of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s.
David Blackmon [00:20:28] Yes.
Tammy Nemeth [00:20:29] Like everything that they're doing from when the whole supposed energy crisis happened with the with the Russian attack on Ukraine suddenly were they just went into their bag of tricks from the past and pulled out the worst things from the 1970s. And now we have probably stagflation or whatever. And the only thing apparently in Canada, the only thing that's stopping, a recession right now is all the immigrants that they're bringing into the country. That's, that's that's the narrative.
Stuart Turley [00:21:03] I want to Ask. I want to ask you about the the, potential rail job strike, the rail strike, because they, they transport almost, 100,000 barrels per day or more on rail out of, Canada. And we need those barrels of oil. So I'm like, this is a big deal.
Tammy Nemeth [00:21:26] They do this, I swear, almost every year, right when it's harvest time and they need to get the grain to port. Suddenly there's port strikes. Suddenly there's rail strikes. Because a lot of the food production in Canada is from, landlocked areas. So it's not like they can just, you know, they could use trucks, but, I mean, there's so much grain and whatever. So it's the target is really, harvest right now. And my understanding is that the rail strike is applying mostly to the ports. So they're stopping, container ships from coming in. They're stopping, the barges from coming to load up and stuff like that. And and they're it's a slow, incremental stoppage, I guess. I don't know, but every I swear, every year they do this to and out in the West like this. Just try to screw the farmers. So but it's it's bigger than that, right. Because they know that they have to get it out and they can use that as leverage for, for whatever that they're demanding. And every year there's a new demand. But I don't know if they're stopping the whole line or if it's just certain segments. So I'm not sure how that's going to affect, the oil shipments, because there is a. Lot. That goes out.
Stuart Turley [00:22:46] From Robert. For our podcast listeners, Robert asks the question or makes a comment in new Jersey, the 10.5 cent motor fuel tax, the 38 cent petroleum produce gross receipts tax and the 18.4 cent federal gas tax comes to $0.67 per gallon. A tax on 320. I guess it would only cost 250 without the tax. And you know what's sad is the roads still suck.
David Blackmon [00:23:18] Right? Yeah. I mean, that's all supposed to go to fixing the roads, right? And they still.
Irina Slav [00:23:22] Well, I guess they have to fund transition programs,
David Blackmon [00:23:26] right. Yeah. And the truth is, all those taxes, they don't go into any designated funds within the state governments. They go into the general fund and they just get spent, however the politicians want to spend.
Irina Slav [00:23:37] This is just okay.
Stuart Turley [00:23:40] Boy, Robert's on a roll. Whatever. Coffee you're on. Robert. I would love to. Yeah. I would love to have a cup of your coffee. Whatever you're on.
David Blackmon [00:23:50] It's my test.
Tammy Nemeth [00:23:52] I'd like to add, something about the the taxes on fuel, because in Canada, there's the a group called the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. And every year they do an annual report of all the taxes that that are on fuel because it affects everybody. When you know, when you're a mom and you're going to fill up your vehicle to drive your kids around to the various activities, you're going camping. And so they have a really great breakdown of all the the fuel charges by province, because every province in Canada, like the United States, every state has its own, set of taxes. But it's almost a it's a crazy amount, almost half, I think over half of the price at the pump is taxes of some kind. And that.
Irina Slav [00:24:35] Was crazy.
Tammy Nemeth [00:24:37] And then what Ottawa does with the federal government does is they charge a tax on top of all the taxes. It's like our carbon tax. They they charge the Goods and Services tax or GST on top of all the taxes on the carbon tax.
Irina Slav [00:24:55] How patient are Canadians?
Tammy Nemeth [00:24:58] Clearly too patient. I don't. Know.
David Blackmon [00:25:00] New patient? Yes. Overly patient.
Irina Slav [00:25:02] yeah. But then you can't just take to the streets. Really?
Tammy Nemeth [00:25:08] Well, they tried that, and then they closed bank accounts.
Irina Slav [00:25:10] Yeah.
David Blackmon [00:25:13] Robert says my coffee contains reality, which is a rare ingredient in government policy.
Irina Slav [00:25:18] So this is the best ingredient in coffee there is. Shall we go to the headlines?
David Blackmon [00:25:26] I am Fred Lord.
Stuart Turley [00:25:28] Here we go. And I believe Tammy found a jewel of a. This is for attorneys running around after disasters. It's ev disasters. Dot com, I believe.
Tammy Nemeth [00:25:44] Yeah. It's a brilliant site, I love it. I think it's mostly, American stories and whatnot, but of course extremely relevant. And they've got, they have all the, the different disaster stories, but they choose the best one. So I think like every week they have one, key story and then they have feature ones. And it's a really useful resource if you want to see some of the sort of TV madness and disasters. And I said to David, here is a great source for regular absurdities.
David Blackmon [00:26:19] Yeah, I've got that one bookmarked now.
Stuart Turley [00:26:23] All right. Let's go to the next one here, Tammy.
Tammy Nemeth [00:26:27] Oh, right. So, these are ones that we I kind of been sending around for the past few weeks, and it was, kind of interesting that there's the school district turns to diesel because they tried to convert the bus fleet to EVs, and it was just a complete disaster. And then there's other I think it was Baltimore. Those weren't school busses, but they were the city busses where they bought like 100 of them. And then the person responsible for them said, we had no idea there would be such constant breakdowns and really expensive breakdowns. And if in the summertime we couldn't have the air conditioning on in the bus in Baltimore, you know, where it's super hot and humid and, because otherwise the batteries would drain super fast so they wouldn't be able to complete their routes. So it's one of these things that we've been talking about for a long time is like, okay, the reality of these things is this, this and this and and it's like all the planners are like, no, no, no, it everything will be good. It's not like that.
David Blackmon [00:27:33] But and the other thing to emphasize about those electric busses, the city busses cost about half $1 million each, okay. Whereas a diesel powered bus costs you between 150 and $200,000. So you're paying an exorbitant upfront cost only to incur exorbitantly higher maintenance costs on top of that. So yeah.
Irina Slav [00:27:57] But there was supposed to be low maintenance,
David Blackmon [00:28:01] right. Exactly. Yeah. I mean, that's how they're advertised.
Irina Slav [00:28:03] Because of fewer moving parts.
Tammy Nemeth [00:28:05] Right.
Irina Slav [00:28:06] What's happening and why is it happening?
David Blackmon [00:28:10] Well, we don't know because the maker of the busses is in bankruptcy. It's no longer.
Irina Slav [00:28:15] Oh, that's that's one penny of me, right? I remember that.
Tammy Nemeth [00:28:19] It's like almost all of those companies are bankrupt or in receivership or whatever, and. Yeah.
Irina Slav [00:28:26] And they said there's a well.
Tammy Nemeth [00:28:30] And then the second, yeah, I don't think that was mine. That the Mercedes or the Mercedes.
David Blackmon [00:28:35] Oh, that one yours. I don't think it's a great story though.
Stuart Turley [00:28:38] It's a great story.
Irina Slav [00:28:40] Yes. 21 people were injured. Okay.
Tammy Nemeth [00:28:46] Okay. Maybe not a great story that wasn't so nice, but, like, the Mercedes blew up, burst into flames.
Irina Slav [00:28:53] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:28:54] These are Irina.
Irina Slav [00:28:55] I think these are mine. And there's a third one round the corner. So how booming electricity demand is stalling efforts to retire coal and gas. How surprised are we? Shocking. So true about the US demand for electricity, which has been flat for years, if not a decade or more. He suddenly booming because data sensors and artificial intelligence, which you use and I don't so my conscience is clear. But in any case electricity demand and of course extreme weather is driving greater demand for heating in winter and air conditioning in some of LA. So electricity demand is on the rise. But so is wind and solar, apparently. Shockingly, as David said, this is not enough. And this growth in demand is delaying the retirement of coal and gas plants. Yeah, it's a great revelation, by the way.
David Blackmon [00:30:04] And here I just want to repeat my prediction that I started making towards the end of last year that by the end of next year, 2025, we're going to start seeing regional grid managers in the United States talking about the need to permit and build additional coal fired power plants. That is coming. It's coming before the end of next year. You know, bookmark this and tell me I'm wrong.
Irina Slav [00:30:29] It's either that or just destroy demand
Stuart Turley [00:30:33] To tell you you're wrong just because you need to be set back a. Little bit. You know, you I.
David Blackmon [00:30:40] Have humility I need humility, yes.
Stuart Turley [00:30:42] Yeah. No. I'm teasing.
Tammy Nemeth [00:30:44] I think it'll be a combination of demand destruction. They're going to try. And also needing to build the reliable, power. So, yeah, I don't know how they're going to square that circle because, you know, as we all know, wind and solar aren't reliable and and whatnot, so.
Irina Slav [00:31:03] Yeah. Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:31:06] I think somebody asked a question earlier about.
Irina Slav [00:31:10] As having.
Tammy Nemeth [00:31:14] That I've seen an older study, but I'd want to look at it again. Now that power prices are increasing and you have all these other inputs. But I think if you the Chinese one, I think the ROI would be lower just because they control so much of that chain. So I don't know.
David Blackmon [00:31:35] For podcast listeners, the question for miss RB.
Tammy Nemeth [00:31:37] Oh yeah. Sure.
David Blackmon [00:31:38] Even for Tammy, as far as you know, has anyone looked at BEVs, battery electric vehicles in terms of energy return on energy invested in ROI? And as Tammy said, I know there have been several studies on that. I'm not sure if any are actually current now to reflect the higher inflation in prices.
Tammy Nemeth [00:32:00] Yeah. Good question. I'll look into it
Stuart Turley [00:32:04] While You're looking at that, Tammy. I got another one that just came across my desk. Energy bills across Britain might be up 9%, reaching an average of 1,714 pounds a year for the typical household. You all got electricity over there still.
Tammy Nemeth [00:32:24] Good question. I mean, apparently GB energy, the new state company, supposed to solve all that, so we'll see.
Irina Slav [00:32:32] By spending money on small wind turbines.
Tammy Nemeth [00:32:35] Yeah. Solar panels covering the fields. .
David Blackmon [00:32:42] That will totally not become a massive boondoggle. You can count on it.
Irina Slav [00:32:46] Yeah, I'm sure for sure it'll work. Especially so while the meanwhile, clean fuel start ups were supposed to be the next big thing. Now they are collapsing. We're talking biofuels, we're talking sustainable aviation fuels, and we're talking hydrogen.
David Blackmon [00:33:08] Both Of those for were from the Wall Street Journal, those two stories, they're doing fantastic work over there.
Irina Slav [00:33:14] Yeah, but they're doing it reluctantly. You know, you can. Yeah, you can feel it. Yeah. Like this clean fuel startup story. The author keeps reminding us regularly that we need to reduce emissions by using more biofuels, by using more safs, more hydrogen to save the planet. But we're failing in that because the metal biofuels is not what it's supposed to be. Demand for hydrogen is not what it's supposed to be, and demand for S.A.S. is not what it's supposed to be because they're too expensive. And because the companies making them accept the startups which are just folding. But BP and shell, the big oil majors that invested heavily,.
David Blackmon [00:34:08] Hi Tammy,
Tammy Nemeth [00:34:09] I don't. Know what happened. I did nothing, I did nothing, and it clicked. What the heck, I don't know, I don't know, what did I do?
David Blackmon [00:34:20] I love technology.
Tammy Nemeth [00:34:22] Yeah. Okay.
Irina Slav [00:34:26] Big oil is pulling out of all these. Is spending more money on oil and gas well, than biofuels. Yeah, shell even took an impairment of $800 million on biofuels that was supposed to be producing biodiesel. And I say it's for which there is supposed to be massive demand in the future, because governments will be mandating airlines to use these sustainable, so-called sustainable aviation fuels. It's it's a glorious story of no planning and no thinking, and just expecting that when you throw enough money at something, it will work just like that.
Tammy Nemeth [00:35:11] They've, they've they've set a directive. Make it so. We should just.
David Blackmon [00:35:18] Right. Yeah. You can just order it to happen.
Stuart Turley [00:35:19] Jean-Luc Picard.
Tammy Nemeth [00:35:21] Exactly. Make it so.
Stuart Turley [00:35:26] Yeah, yeah. Okay. I love this quote.
Irina Slav [00:35:28] Yeah. So true. Electric Car Sales plummet 37% in Germany as slump deepens. Why does the slump deepen? Because there's no money for subsidies. And the, quote, well-off and eco conscious buyers are more or less tapped out. And the industry's lack of affordable bathroom models is putting mass market consumers out of the market. Call me.
Tammy Nemeth [00:35:54] Shocked.
David Blackmon [00:35:55] You just nobody could have possibly seen any of that coming.
Irina Slav [00:35:59] Absolutely. Yeah. Haven't talked about this at all over the past six weeks.
Stuart Turley [00:36:06] Hey, David, you and bring up Tom Mumford's comment and read it. That thing is amazing.
David Blackmon [00:36:13] Where is he? Okay, here we go. Nine months ago. This is from Tom Mumford. Hi, Tom. I posted this article with my comment regarding providing convenient power to electric vehicles. I was struck by the enormity of the challenge faced by putting in place the charging infrastructure necessitated by forcing EVs on the public in California. Quote will require California to install at least 20 EV charging ports for every gas nozzle by 2035. Think how many millions.
Tammy Nemeth [00:36:45] Oh my gosh.
David Blackmon [00:36:46] The number of EV port stands at 94,000 now. There are about 110 000 fuel nozzle. Okay. He's talking about gas station nozzles. They're about 110,000 fuel nozzles. So that number has to be about 2.2 million ports. Daunting. Wow, that is daunting.
Tammy Nemeth [00:37:08] And they have to be operational all the time. Which they Never
David Blackmon [00:37:13] What does that mean? That means you're going to have to build 5 million of them because of the horrible maintenance problems these EV charger ports have. Well, half of them are always down. They're always
Tammy Nemeth [00:37:25] we have enough copper.
Irina Slav [00:37:27] Maybe that's why you basically in the ratio of 20 to 1 nozzle, because they break down so differently. And you want to have at least, half a dozen operating while the others, down for repairs or something.
Tammy Nemeth [00:37:43] I think I think that the numbers there are, because it takes so long to charge versus being in there.
Irina Slav [00:37:50] You got to. Right? Yeah. But it's not just that it takes so long to charge, but they break down very, very easily. Even if you don't steal the copper wiring.
David Blackmon [00:38:02] That's that's. Not the point. We made about copper.
Irina Slav [00:38:07] Yeah. You, you you need to build, what, 30? So you have some sort of redundancy. It's it's.
Tammy Nemeth [00:38:16] The material, the material cost. So we're supposed to be in this circular economy where we're making the best use of all of our resources, so we don't overstress the Earth. And all this and everything about this forced transition takes way more space. It uses up more of the Earth's materials. It's so material intensive. Why are we doing this? And you can't tell me it's saving the planet.
Irina Slav [00:38:42] It's not saving the planet. Throwing it on it. Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:38:45] So we have to destroy the planet to save the climate, apparently. I don't know.
David Blackmon [00:38:48] Right. Oh, hey.
Stuart Turley [00:38:55] Yeah, look at that. All right, look ahead there. How did you get a picture of me?
David Blackmon [00:39:00] Tell you what. And he's young, too. That looks like he's about 40s already.
Stuart Turley [00:39:04] I knew anyway. I mean,.
David Blackmon [00:39:06] That's that's what happens to you when you buy hydrogen car. The stress makes you go bald. Drivers of hydrogen cars are annoyed at California, but they're suing Toyota. So it turns out that refueling your hydrogen powered Toyota is every bit as frustrating and near impossible as it is to charge your electric vehicle. And people who have bought these Toyotas from Toyota dealerships, on the promise made by car salesmen. Ever think about this? Car salesmen are promising these car buyers that there's hydrogen refueling stations all over the state, thanks to a program conducted. By whom? The California state government. Okay. So in order to I mean, think about, think about. I have zero sympathy at all for these these hydrogen car buyers, because in order to buy that car, they trusted a car salesman and the state government of California to make sure their driving experience was rosy and just right. So, I mean, these people deserve no sympathy whatsoever. They paid an exorbitant price for a hydrogen Toyota. They're finding out now. It's damn near impossible to find a place to fill them up with hydrogen. And they're wondering why. And the reason is this is the object lesson. Don't trust the car salesman or the state government of California. That's the object lesson here. Anyway, so hydrogen cars are just another fantasy that's doomed to fail in the United States.
Tammy Nemeth [00:40:43] Oh, but. David, maybe it's because they're they just don't have any place to store the hydrogen. And I saw an article this morning where they want to repurpose salt caverns. So the salt caverns that they use for storing, you know, oil like an SVR, I guess they want an air strategic hydrogen reserve and they're going
Stuart Turley [00:41:06] Is this the same government that just destroyed the North eastern, strategic Gasoline Reserve? So they. That's federal price. Same government. I was just curious.
David Blackmon [00:41:17] Yeah. And so, I mean, with on the point about salt caverns. So salt caverns can be reliably used to store natural gas and oil, which have much larger molecules.
Tammy Nemeth [00:41:29] Yeah.
David Blackmon [00:41:30] And hydrogen does. Hydrogen is a little tiny molecule. And I don't know the answer to this, but of course, the reason you can't just repurpose natural gas pipelines to move hydrogen on is because of the tiny size of the molecules, and they'll leak all over the place and cause explosions. I just kind of wonder if salt caverns might have the same issue with containing hydrogen molecules. I don't know the answer to that, but if anyone out there watching or listening knows the answer, let us know. Second thing Orsted books, new losses, flags, delay of U.S. offshore wind project.
Irina Slav [00:42:07] No details. zone.
David Blackmon [00:42:11] But it's still. Soldiers. All because it knows that if it asked strongly enough, the states of new Jersey and Massachusetts will give it more subsidies to keep building these these boondoggles offshore U.S. Orsted. This is like the second time Orsted is has had to book major charges related to its US offshore wind projects. It's canceled and restarted 2 or 3 of the projects. And someone mentioned, I think it was Tammy mentioned a little bit ago that, about shell and BP and other big oil companies pulling out of these biofuels ventures. Well, they're also pulling out of their offshore wind ventures in Ecuador, too. And so why? Because they're not there. They're not sound business models. And they require and they will continue to require ever increasing subsidies and higher up power provision rates in order to stay afloat. And so that's not going to happen in the United States. And they're all going to fail. Robert DeDemenico. Strategic Hydrogen Initiative targets are shit. Yeah, that might get. You to, but I agree with that.
Stuart Turley [00:43:19] I'm glad you hit that, Tammy because and hey Brian good morning
Tammy Nemeth [00:43:24] Brian Zinchek. Awesome. Thanks, Brian.
David Blackmon [00:43:27] Brian says, I love listening to you for on Monday mornings. It's so refreshing. Me too. Brian.
Tammy Nemeth [00:43:35] Me too. And Robert. Oops. Sorry. Sorry, Tom. Thank you. Tackling climate change.
David Blackmon [00:43:39] Climate change.
Stuart Turley [00:43:42] Robert. Again. A typical gas nozzle pumps about ten megawatt power equivalent. No charger. Does that exact equivalent? Is is big. Yeah. Robert, again, whatever you're on, I want to or he's on fire. You're you're rolling man. Oh! Oh, wait a minute. Wait a minute. Hold on, hold on.
David Blackmon [00:44:04] You go Stu.
Stuart Turley [00:44:06] Yeah I finally get Yeah. I'm a I'm a somebody.
David Blackmon [00:44:12] Oh, boy. Okay. I'm done. Those are mine.
Stuart Turley [00:44:16] Let's go to our EVs. Really climate friendly. I want to give Gronk a shout out. I actually created this. Me. I created this using grok. I on X and I asked for you know, how does tires, wear microplastics and EVs? I hate to say this are not climate friendly.
David Blackmon [00:44:41] I believe you.
Tammy Nemeth [00:44:44] What?
Stuart Turley [00:44:45] Yeah, I know, it's unbelievable, but I want to get to the next article that. Can the West afford to build its own copper industry? Because if we need to go to an energy transition and electrify everything, we need to double the size of the grid in the next ten years. We need more copper than we have on the planet. And the average copper mine in the U.S. takes about 20 years to get approved. So. Yeah, we're kind of screwed around.
Tammy Nemeth [00:45:19] Same In Canada.
Stuart Turley [00:45:21] I Use grok on X to create the, cover for this wonderful article that was written by Irina Slav for, for, Oilprice.com, but they had a really cheesy thing on it. So I put this cover on it and it's amazing. Is copper the Swiss Army knife? Yes it is. We need it for everything.
Irina Slav [00:45:51] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:45:52] And and solar panels need copper cables to connect their inverters from there to the grid. Wind turbines need copper cables for the same reason. Reason EVs need copper. The list goes on. It's a long one. The world would be need enormous amounts of common copper while theoretically available. Not actually available. Well, Irina.
Irina Slav [00:46:17] Yeah, I think the World Copper Association or Copper Council or something says that there is copper, but it has to be got out of the ground. And that's actually my coverage of the, wood Mac report on copper that says, No China, no transition. I mean, yeah. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:46:40] Oh, no. Tom, we are not going to show this comment. We are not going to show this comment.
David Blackmon [00:46:47] You are. You are a gentleman, Tom Mumford.
Stuart Turley [00:46:51] No, David, you are not correct.
Tammy Nemeth [00:46:55] Oh, Brian has a good comment here. A copper mine in Minnesota was killed recently because, believe it or not, they said they couldn't cut down trees in Minnesota. And the whole street in the state. Is covered in trees.
Irina Slav [00:47:06] This is this is not justification to cut them down. You should let it say covered in trees. But
Tammy Nemeth [00:47:17] guess what? Because their carbon sinks and those trees are removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. And so if you cut them down, will that copper be able to, replace that ability to remove carbon dioxide?
Irina Slav [00:47:32] This is a very interesting question because it will be using wind turbines and solar panels, solar installations that do not, in fact remove CO2 from the.
Stuart Turley [00:47:42] unless you're using carbon capture techniques that take a lot of power from those wind turbines that you've just destroyed the Earth. So it'd be easy to.
Tammy Nemeth [00:47:52] Do what a tree does.
Irina Slav [00:47:55] It's not. There are these people who are trying to get something without trading anything, or they have forgotten that there is always a trade off. They want their trader to eat it too.
David Blackmon [00:48:08] And isn't the other point to make here that if, that copper mine had instead been a proposed wind farm or copper. No one would have objected to cutting down a single tree.
Irina Slav [00:48:21] That's exactly
Tammy Nemeth [00:48:23] Except in Quebec, because they they didn't want this EV battery plant constructed because it would cut down the trees. And so they've been protesting.
David Blackmon [00:48:32] It's good for them.
Stuart Turley [00:48:33] That's all. Scotland is absolutely a horrific place. They've cut down 14 million trees for all their wind farms. And now they're trying to do interconnects, around so they can supply power. And then the amount of diesel fuel that they're using to power those wind turbines so they can export the power. This is a mind numbing experience.
Irina Slav [00:49:02] Germany, I think, was going to cut down on ancient forests, too because of wind turbines.
Tammy Nemeth [00:49:09] And now they're just putting the wind turbines in the forest, which I'm sure.
David Blackmon [00:49:13] Well, yeah, that makes a lot of sense to Lynn.
Stuart Turley [00:49:16] But, you know, when I'm sitting here in my head, in my poor little feeble mind, this is what I really want to just kind of focus on this week instead of. And as we sit here and take a look,.
David Blackmon [00:49:29] Oh, oh, look at that.
Stuart Turley [00:49:39] Now this, I'm sorry. Oh.That was about as cool as it gets.
Tammy Nemeth [00:49:58] Where are the cats?
David Blackmon [00:49:59] I feel better
Irina Slav [00:50:01] Are you a cat lady? Are you a cat lady?
Tammy Nemeth [00:50:04] Yeah, we have three cat lady.
Irina Slav [00:50:06] Haven't you seen your cat? yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:50:09] Irina is a cat lady, too.
David Blackmon [00:50:12] I'm a cat lady too.
Irina Slav [00:50:15] Oh my gosh.
Tammy Nemeth [00:50:17] I've never heard.
Irina Slav [00:50:18] cat
David Blackmon [00:50:19] My cat was just up here a minute ago. But I don't see him now. Or I would show him to you.
Stuart Turley [00:50:23] Okay, I'll do better next time. My apologies guys, I didn't mean
Irina Slav [00:50:27] I like your still.
Stuart Turley [00:50:31] Okay? So, with that, what do we see coming around the corner? Oh, the Nimby.
Irina Slav [00:50:38] NIMBY and other.
David Blackmon [00:50:40] Issues related to Nimby and bureaucratic red tape would have to be eliminated to get mining in the U.S. competitive. Yeah, but that's not.
Irina Slav [00:50:50] The environment.
Stuart Turley [00:50:52] Yeah, but can I pull a Nimby on my taxes in my. And get not in my back bank, you know, not in my backyard. Yeah. Get out of my bank, you commie. Never mind. So with that, what do we have coming around the corner for this week? Irina.
Irina Slav [00:51:14] Oh, I have no idea. Every day is a surprise. I have no idea. Well, the news feeds will surprise me with.
Stuart Turley [00:51:25] Well, Tammy, what's going on in the UK that we can talk about without getting you thrown in jail?
Irina Slav [00:51:31] It's a very good question.
Tammy Nemeth [00:51:33] Good question. I'm not sure what they're what they're up to. I think they're kind of on holiday. But I'm paying attention to some stuff happening in Canada right now where Chevron just got a $100 million subsidy to do a carbon capture project. Wow. That I need to read a little bit more about and see what's going on.
Stuart Turley [00:51:57] Wow. David, what do you got coming around this week?
David Blackmon [00:52:00] Spain and Portugal. I'm going on a cruise. I'll be back three weeks.
Stuart Turley [00:52:08] Wow. So we'll have to hold the fort down for you.
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:12] Hold the fort. And he'll be stirring up trouble in Europe. Oh, no.
David Blackmon [00:52:14] Oh, my gosh, I'm just. I'm worried about getting extradited and arrested.
Stuart Turley [00:52:20] You know.
Irina Slav [00:52:21] Going to Spain and Portugal. People are nice there.
David Blackmon [00:52:24] Oh, I love
Irina Slav [00:52:24] I'm going to the UK. Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:27] Hey, no. Spain has been protesting tourists. for protesters.
David Blackmon [00:52:31] Yeah, we've been warned about that. But I think we'll be fine.
Stuart Turley [00:52:35] So are you going to wear EV's are terrible shirt or.
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:40] I love solar.
Stuart Turley [00:52:41] I love solar, I love wind.
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:47] Spain. I love solar.
Stuart Turley [00:52:49] No, So with that, I think, we're going to be having a lot of fun watching the Democrats throw bricks at each other. And avoiding dunking pucks.
David Blackmon [00:52:59] It is going to be awesome. Yes.
Stuart Turley [00:53:00] I mean monkey, donkey. Pox. Monkey.
David Blackmon [00:53:03] Mpox Mpox.
Stuart Turley [00:53:05] Mpox.
David Blackmon [00:53:06] You can't say monkey anymore for some reason.
Tammy Nemeth [00:53:08] Just like.
Stuart Turley [00:53:09] I still.
Tammy Nemeth [00:53:10] Got the Wuhan virus.
Stuart Turley [00:53:12] Yeah, you know, it's a donkey pox as far as I'm concerned.
David Blackmon [00:53:17] A packs of donkeys.
Stuart Turley [00:53:18] There you go. Anyway. Have a good one, guys.
David Blackmon [00:53:23] We lost the Irina.
Tammy Nemeth [00:53:24] We lost Irina.
Stuart Turley [00:53:25] Bye, guys.
David Blackmon [00:53:26] Bye, y'all. Have a great week
Tammy Nemeth [00:53:27] Have a great week.
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