We are in the last 8 days before the election, and you do not want to miss Larry Schweikart, best-selling author, David Blackmon, Podcast Host, and Energy Author, joined by Stu Turley, Podcast Host of the Energy News Beat. This will be our last weekly show, and we have some key numbers to share right up to the election. We will be taking questions live and will be having a lot of fun.
Highlights of the Podcast
00:03 - Introduction
01:36 - Election Night Webcast
03:49 - Early Voting Data Insights
06:30 - Comparative Turnout Metrics
08:02 - Pennsylvania Early Vote Update
10:59 - Florida and Texas Projections
11:26 - Shocking Polling in New Jersey
12:30 - Tucker Carlson's Remarks
16:04 - Kamala Harris's Impact
17:21 - Chinese Immigrant's Commentary
19:26 - Media Misrepresentation
20:38 - Conservative Rhetoric
22:15 - Trump’s Distrust of CIA
25:28 - Democrats' Legal Strategies
32:54 - Legal Challenges and Election Interference
36:48 - Vice President's Role
38:05 - Certification of Election Results
41:59 - Biden’s Replacement
44:52 - Polling Predictions
47:32 - Electoral Predictions
52:58 - Encouragement to Vote
David Blackmon [00:00:03] We're having a little technical issues that we're trying to work out. Welcome to the podcast Talking Politics with David Blackmon, Larry Schweikart and Stu Turley. Larry is America's history teacher, bestselling author of a series of books that I want to give. Larry, before we get into the discussion today, a chance to tell everyone where they can find your books, Larry.
Larry Schweikart [00:00:28] Well, of course, you can get everything on Amazon if you can spell my name correctly. But also you can get everything at the wild world of history or the wild world of politics. History is for those who are engaged in history teaching, such as homeschoolers or even public school teachers who just want more. I have full videos of every lesson of Patriots history of the United States and of the world History course and the wild world of politics is designed for those of you who want more political stuff. And I do political commentary three days a week leading up to the election next week. So we'll we'll see where we are then. And of course, don't forget, we will be doing a live election night webcast, starting it at 6:00 Eastern time at decision USA online.com that's decision USA online.com. We've got full access to decision desk data. And my staff guy Seth Cash will be analyzing that while I keep you entertained.
Stuart Turley [00:01:36] And Larry, I want to give a shout out to General Flynn. You've got a bunch of high dollar folks.
Larry Schweikart [00:01:45] Yeah, we have General Flynn. We have Kerry Lake committed to coming on. Novelist Brian Freeman, who has taken over the Jason Bourne series. We got seven. Gorka Actually, one of the problems we're running into. I'm getting some emails on this is it takes a little bit longer to set everybody up for the zoom in spot. And we're having to allow more time between people. And given the actual focus of the night, which is analyzing election data and so forth. We're having to postpone or move around or cancel some people because we just don't have enough time to get everybody in.
Stuart Turley [00:02:25] Three weeks before the election results come in.
Larry Schweikart [00:02:29] Yeah. Yeah. Just kidding. It's done on election night. I. I confess that the night is over and that the races are called no matter what the mains want to say.
David Blackmon [00:02:42] Yeah, I think we're seeing a lot of signs of a growing recognition of that among Democrats and among commentators who are, you know, Democrats themselves, you know, pretty much at this point. At least admitting that their candidate is struggling and playing defense and not doing well, if not outright saying it's over. Mark Halperin, a lifelong Democrat. Last Friday on his podcast, actually worked the word landslide into his commentary, which shocked me. Frankly, I wouldn't have expected me to predict a landslide, but just the fact that he held that out as a possibility was really shocking to me. So anyway, you know, before we get into talking about the events of the past week and what we can expect, give everybody, Larry, an update on what you're seeing in the early voting data, which, you know, apparently everywhere is very positive for Trump and the Republicans.
Larry Schweikart [00:03:49] Okay. So as a review, what you can do is base some assumptions on the fact that someone who is registered as a Republican will vote as a Republican, somebody who is registered as a Democrat will vote as a Democrat. And we don't know what the Indies will do. And there you have to go to polls. And most polls have Trump winning a higher percentage of these than Harris does. So let's start with my state of Arizona. Yesterday, it came in with a Republican advantage of 87,511. That's a shocking advantage to have before the election even starts. Over a million people have voted already. And so, again, you can do some back of the envelope mathematics here and assume that Trump wins 54% of independents, an additional 4%. And you say that Trump wins an additional 4 or 5% of Democrats voting for Trump over Republicans voting for Harris. So you gain some there. So I calculate that right now, probably Trump has a lead of 120,000 here in Arizona, which is not quite yet insurmountable, but it's getting very, very close. 2 or 3 more days of this. And you can add all the Indies and the Democrats together and it won't matter. Nevada, astonishing what's happening in Nevada. Yesterday, the Republicans won the combination vote again early in mail in a by just under 1000 votes. So they're now at at over 32,000, almost 33,000 net over Democrats in early voting. Now, in 2020, that number was reversed. Democrats are up by almost 40,000 in 2020. So that's a flip of 71,000. Again, not even counting the Indies or the Democrats who vote Trump. And Jon Ralston, who's the data guru up there in Nevada, a Democrat, he's wailing and moaning. And you can pretty well tell from his reaction that he thinks it's over in Nevada. In Wisconsin, we don't have voter registration by party. So you have to use different metrics out there. And that metric would be what are the counties that are traditionally very red or very Trumpy versus the counties that are blue? How are those doing? And the counties that are red or off the charts? Some of them, it's not even Election Day. Right. And so I've already voted 87% of all. They're Republican.
David Blackmon [00:06:29] Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:06:30] So it's just the turnout. There is not what we saw in 22 with that judge who lost a narrow race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court where the rules did not turn out for him. The rules are definitely turning out for Trump. And there's a little bit of increase in Milwaukee and some of the blue counties like ten, 15%, but nothing like what the Reds are seeing. So I think Wisconsin say. Michigan the hardest of all these to judge because A, the level of fraud in Wayne County is always pretty high. No matter who's running and B, they don't register by party. But what we have had are a series 3 or 4 of these Muslim leaders, whether they are mayors, whether they are imams, whatever, just general community leaders all coming out and endorsing Trump. And so you have to figure Trump gets the Muslim vote of Dearborn and some of these other places that will almost offset any gain the Democrats had had out of Wayne County. And then the rest of Michigan is it is rather than Kamala Harris's little Red Mount book. So it's a pretty good bet that Trump's going to win Michigan. The last three local polls there have had him up one and two points respectively, and RCP has him up one there. Pennsylvania.
David Blackmon [00:08:02] Let's address something here. The NSA message Times says keeps closing. NASA keeps closing the connection on YouTube. I have to refresh every 30s if you're having an issue with that on YouTube, you can also access this podcast on my LinkedIn account. David Blackmon at LinkedIn and on Stu's and my X account. So, So. Just switch over if you have that issue anyway. Go ahead, Larry.
Larry Schweikart [00:08:33] Dirty tricks from the establishment.
David Blackmon [00:08:35] Dirty tricks.
Larry Schweikart [00:08:37] So Pennsylvania, remember, Democrats have always had a massive, massive early vote lead. And in Pennsylvania, I think it was 600,000 or so in 2020. And thanks to Scott Pressler and the voter registration drives of Pennsylvania Chase, Currently, the Republicans are only at a deficit of about 150,000, maybe even less. And every day they pick up more ground. Folks, if this goes into Election Day with Democrats only leading early voting by 150,000, Trump will win that state by 2 to 3 points. I mean, that's just the nature of Pennsylvania, North Carolina. We do have registration by party there. And Republicans actually, for the first time ever pulled ahead of Democrats in early voting in North Carolina. So I think they're done and dusted, as they say. The western areas that everybody was wringing their hands about and fretting over, they will never get to the polls. Well, the redneck rodeos out there have gotten their ATVs out and brought all sorts of people to the polls in the western areas are voting very, very strong. Nice Florida not in play, but it is a nice harbinger here. Florida is already Republican plus 11%. 11 That means Trump's probably in the neighborhood of at least ten, maybe 15% in Florida. And I'm watching closely, as we will on election night. Duval County, Duval County tracks very, very closely with Georgia. And right now, the Republicans are up about two points in Duval County. I think it'll probably end up around five, as I think that's where Georgia is going to be as well. And then lastly, Texas is always a hand wringer for Republicans again, because you don't register by party. I wish you guys would fix that with somebody introduce an issue or proposition or whatever the hell you have there. Just say all registration stations must be done by party so we can put the beta male O'Rourke and the all red kinds of Idiot Hope stories to rest. No, they are not going to win out. It's not going to win the Senate seat. Maybe closer than Trump. It might be three points.
David Blackmon [00:10:59] Might be closer to Trump. Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:11:01] But Trump's going to win the state by 8 to 10 and that Cruz is going to go on to be reelected as a senator. So across the board and here was a shocker that came out yesterday. A poll came out yesterday showing New Jersey early voting. Republicans were within one and a half point of Democrats in New Jersey.
Stuart Turley [00:11:26] New Jersey.
Larry Schweikart [00:11:28] Just unheard of, you know. And so you saw that rally yesterday at Madison Square Garden, which I'm sure had a lot of Jersey ites to cheer. And it was just off the charts.
Stuart Turley [00:11:38] Look at that. I'll tell you what.
David Blackmon [00:11:42] For some people who cried and covered more than. We couldn't get in because based on the things.
Larry Schweikart [00:11:49] They're saying, there were 40 to 50,000 outside.
David Blackmon [00:11:53] Yeah. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:11:55] Larry, I watched. I watched that last night. And. Wow.
David Blackmon [00:12:06] Yeah, it was an amazing program. RFK, Jr. Tucker Carlson. Brahma Swami. Tulsi Gabbard
Larry Schweikart [00:12:14] In the first lady. Don't forget the first lady.
David Blackmon [00:12:17] First lady.
Stuart Turley [00:12:18] She was great.
David Blackmon [00:12:20] Yeah. You've got a clip of Tucker Carlson right Stu a couple of minutes from that.
Larry Schweikart [00:12:30] I wish you wouldn't laugh.
Video Speaker 1 [00:12:33] Thank you. I have. I saw the Grateful Dead. In this arena in 1987. I was seated right there.
Larry Schweikart [00:12:48] That's strike one.
Video Speaker 1 [00:12:50] It's it's so it's such an honor to be here. And it's wild. Just another day following Bobby Kennedy Jr at a Donald Trump rally in Madison Square Garden. I feel that it's totally normal. Liz Cheney is out there with Kamala Harris. And there's Bobby Kennedy calling to protect the women's sports at a Trump rally. It's a realignment. It's unbelievable. And the fact that it's here is even sweeter. Imagine if you're and just pause for one moment. Imagine you're Donald Trump. You're from New York City. You become famous in New York City. You make your fortune in New York City. And all of a sudden, the leadership of New York City decides they're going to destroy you because they don't like your politics. And so they. Yeah, boom. Imagine if that were you, though. And they try and take everything that you have. They try and put you in prison. They try and put your children in prison. If that happened to you, how often do you think you'd be going back to New York City? How about never? And yet he's here. It's like getting thrown out of a bar. And you think to yourself, well, you know, all my friends are in the bar and you approach the door and there's the bouncer. Like you're not allowed in here. But from behind the bouncer, you hear the cheers of your friend. Come on in. And the bouncer hangs his head in shame. He's embarrassed that he's working for the man trying to keep the most popular person out of the bar. And that's Donald Trump back in the city that produced him with no embarrassment at. All in a room full of his friends. The stones that takes the bravery that takes is incredible. Donald Trump's going to win. He's going to win. I know that that's true. Why is Donald Trump going to win the people he's about to defeat have no idea. And they're panicked. They have no idea why people like Donald Trump. And their first theory was, well, Donald Trump is evil. So half the country is evil also. And that's one of the reasons they spent the last four years trying to destroy the country because they're mad at its voters for liking Donald Trump.
Stuart Turley [00:15:14] Yep. Now, yeah, Larry, I do have a video of what is happening over at the Kamala headquarters. Right.
Larry Schweikart [00:15:22] I can't wait for this one.
David Blackmon [00:15:24] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:15:24] Hang on. This is the Kamala headquarters for her campaign.
David Blackmon [00:15:35] Okay.
Larry Schweikart [00:15:35] So that lamp having just fallen off a stair last week. Still recovering.
David Blackmon [00:15:40] My God. Well, that and, of course, that video. The combination of those two videos brings us to the topic of Kamala Harris's closing argument with the support of the media, of course, that Donald Trump is Hitler. That's the entirety of their closing argument in this campaign. Do you think that's having any impact at all in Harris's?
Larry Schweikart [00:16:04] I don't think anything Harris does is having any impact. She could bring up Bozo the Talking Horse and it wouldn't move any voters. You know, she brings up beyond, say, and pays or apparently $10 million to say three sentences and leaves without performing. And of course, that only made people more angry. She brings out geriatric Bruce Springsteen, who hasn't had a hit since I was in graduate school.
David Blackmon [00:16:33] And he sounded terrible, too, didn't he? My God, he sounded.
Larry Schweikart [00:16:37] Terrible when he was good.
David Blackmon [00:16:39] Yeah. Yeah, that's true.
Larry Schweikart [00:16:41] So I don't you know, it's their whole thing is is just absurd. And I think to the extent there were any undecided people, I think they're completely flipping to Trump saying, I don't I may not like him, but, boy, these other people are just evil and incompetent at the same time.
Stuart Turley [00:16:58] Yeah, David and Larry, I think that this one Chinese lady standing in line sums it up just so badass. Is this is unbelievable. Here is a Chinese immigrant articulating it like we've never heard before. And pretty good. Listen to this, Larry.
Video Speaker 2 [00:17:21] We love trying to firm up our boredom all the harder because we know Trump is the only one who can save America. Kamala is so stupid. She is so low. I actually call that, you know, qualification to be the president. You should stay away from that position. You lost the position. You lost our trust. Lost the world. You're done. You go home. To stay at home, you cannot do anything to save America. You are so stupid. You don't know anything. You cannot answer the question from the camera, from all the media. How you can be on the stage to fight home for America, to protect American people, to protect all the world. You are now the one you fired. You're just going home. Like try to save America. To save the world, to put America first. You are America to be strong, to be saved. And that America can save for the whole world. Time will allow your willpower, your full name. I surrender. Fight, fight, fight, fight. Fight, fight.
Stuart Turley [00:18:41] She made my weekend when I saw that, I swear. She articulated that. And I want to say this one thing, Larry and David. I love legal immigration and she is exactly what we want. Immigrating into the United States
David Blackmon [00:19:02] Immigrants always make the best Americans because they have such an appreciation. Having gone through the process they had to go through. They have such an appreciation and understanding of what this country is and why they want to be here. And she just I mean, she's the personification of that, in my view.
Larry Schweikart [00:19:20] I kept waiting for John Panetta, though, to walk out and for her to go. You all go now.
David Blackmon [00:19:26] You go now. Anyway, that was terrific. I just think that. Really. In the fit the media through about it. It was so repugnant watching the media portray this as some sort of replay of the 1939 American bond rally that was held there at the same venue. And I went through I went back and did a little research. And here's the list of presidents who have done exactly the same thing during their election campaign. You start with Franklin Roosevelt in the same venue. You go to Lyndon Johnson, John F Kennedy. I couldn't find a rally by Jimmy Carter in Madison Square Garden. Bill Clinton was there. Barack Hussein Obama was there. So were those recreations of the the American moon rally of 1939? No, of course not. And there were no there's it's just it's such an absurd thing that they're continuing to do this. It's the same thing they've been doing for nine years. They do think that's an effective closing argument. It's just kind of bizarre to me. Really
Larry Schweikart [00:20:38] Well, I think our side needs to just ditch that stuff and not even cover these people with their Hitler argument. As the word Hitler comes up. It ought to be. We're not going to retweet that. We're not going to put it out on social media. We're not going to cover it because it clearly shows you're a moron, a moron if you're saying that. Right.
Stuart Turley [00:20:57] And I don't know what.
Larry Schweikart [00:20:58] Two syllables. Stupid synonym, Harris. Okay.
David Blackmon [00:21:03] Yeah. Not a point. Go ahead. Go ahead, Stu.
Stuart Turley [00:21:07] Not a mormon moron. Yeah.
Larry Schweikart [00:21:10] Remember Bob Newhart when when his neighbor, Howard Borden, said, my brother is coming into town? And Bob says, well, where's he from? He goes, he's he's from Utah. And Bob Newhart, deadpan, goes a mormon. Borden goes, What does he do? And goes, He's a doorman. So Norman. Norman Borden, the Mormon doorman.
David Blackmon [00:21:40] Rest in peace, Bob Newhart.
Larry Schweikart [00:21:42] Really? What a talent.
David Blackmon [00:21:44] Funny man.
Larry Schweikart [00:21:45] So we we need to look here at some things that are happening under the surface that aren't getting much attention. And one of those things there are two real big ones. First of all, quietly, about a month ago, the CIA, which was not briefing Trump on its daily security briefings, tried to brief him. He said, no, I don't want your damn briefings because you're going to lie to me and then you're going to leak something and make it look like I leaked. I'm not going to take your brief.
David Blackmon [00:22:15] I did in 2016. That's exactly
Larry Schweikart [00:22:17] yeah, that was absolutely brilliant. The second thing that has happened here and by the way, last week when the CIA leaked those Israeli strike plans, they were to blame that on Trump. If they had the ability, they couldn't do it last week. I think that was one of the October surprises. The other thing that's happening is Trump has quietly announced, or rather Bobby announced for Trump that they have a transition team already in place that is private, privately funded, has nothing to do with the government. They're not talking to rutabaga I'm sorry, Biden or any of his minions up there. And this is also quite brilliant because I think they are cutting out the Republican National Committee, which is great. We don't need any more. Reince Priebus, as you know, rinse and repeat. We don't need any more of those people. Right.
David Blackmon [00:23:11] And he got a shot at Michael Whatley. He's done a fan.
Larry Schweikart [00:23:17] He's doing a great job. And what's interesting.
David Blackmon [00:23:20] Is a lot of people yeah, he is. But there's still a lot of those other people engaged in the RNC.
Larry Schweikart [00:23:28] And lots of lawyers, too. Lots of lawyers from the old guard. It's kind of interesting that it appears that what has happened is the campaign has moved on, is that Siouxsie Wiles took care of wrapping up all the primaries and of putting Trump in position. Training him how to do is talk to that. Any diversions or whatnot really keeping him on message. Then Laura Trump kind of stepped in with the voter chase, the voter registration effort for about a month. And now it's interesting. It seems like Michael Whatley is now remember how in 2016 they had the three headed hydra of Bannon and Kellyanne Conway and Jared Kushner? He has that again now, kind of with Wiles and with Lara Trump and with Whatley. And Whatley seems to have stepped in now to take over the legal assault on these the cheat and any attempts to to cheat. So it's just interesting to watch the internal dynamic of what's going on in the Trump campaign, which has been incredibly successful so far.
David Blackmon [00:24:37] So this private effort, the privately funded transition effort is what really was the basis. People may remember Jamie Raskin made some public comments last week that the idiot congressman from Maryland complaining about Trump campaign having not executed these agreements. You have to make enter into with the deep state for them to find your transition team. And of course, Raskin is the same guy who's been promising for months now to to ensure to work, to ensure there is no peaceful transition of power if Trump wins this election. So, I mean, that's all intertwined with each other, folks. Any time you hear Jamie Raskin know that that's the guy that's organizing the insurrection, that's going to happen after this election.
Larry Schweikart [00:25:28] Right. And Trump just short circuited that whole business. That's why he's complaining is is that they they have and they have no more power begun. You have no power here, said the union, said Dorothy, to the bad witch. And so across the board here, this is a this is a Napoleonic level campaign. And what I like to take from history and when I get so sick of hearing Republicans do is hand wringing with the what about you know, our biggest enemy are the McClellan's and the white. About. And. Well, what about this? What are. What's Trump going to do if they say this? You know, what if they do, we don't care. Napoleon did not care what the Austrians were going to do because he knew what he was going to do. And if he did what he was going to do, they didn't have a chance to do what they were going to do, Right. So that needs to be our mindset going into this last week is, you know, bayonets. We're going to put in the reserves and overwhelm them and just just break the center and just keep on March and don't look back. Don't worry about the what abouts. And, you know, especially in Texas, I get so many of you Texans are just well. I don't know what's going to. Happen with Cruz. I just want to snap out of it, you know, and keep going.
David Blackmon [00:26:46] You know, they've spent they had $140 million of out-of-state money going into an all red campaign. Good. That guy has been up in every major TV market in this state since.
Stuart Turley [00:26:58] It is pathetic. It's unbelievable.
Larry Schweikart [00:27:01] And I see that as just a total win. More of a total win. It's like what they did with beta male. O'Rourke. They just created a giant funnel and poured money into this funnel. It ended up in an incinerator and the more Democrat money we can burn up, the better. At some point, maybe somebody over the over there will get smart and go, You know what, I'm not pouring any money into somebody stupid as this idiot now read.
David Blackmon [00:27:25] So one thing I think Trump has figured out the Trump campaign, another thing that the Trump campaign has figured out that the Democrats haven't realized is that television advertising and I'm going to relate this to the Rogan podcast. Television advertising is a dying means of campaigning and podcasts like Joe Rogan's and social media is the rising means of campaign communications and campaign mode. And that Rogan podcast Three Hours. Donald Trump, a major candidate, one of the two parties spending three hours in a wide ranging discussion that covered literally every major issue facing this country and in that podcast is going to get well over 100 million listeners and views. And it was free. It didn't cost Donald Trump a penny. And meanwhile, Karmel is spending $1 billion on all this TV advertising and guys like All Red are spending 100 million on all this TV advertising that people simply fast forward through or change the channel because they don't want to listen to that crap.
Larry Schweikart [00:28:42] Well, and you know, it's like one of those desserts. You eat certain desserts and they're are that first bite is so good. My gosh. That's excellent. Second bites kind of like, okay. And then by the time you get to the third, I'm going to be sick. I'm going to puke if I keep eating the stuff right. And it's like that with these commercials is that they may have been effective once, once a night because it's different. Your eyes pick up, your ears pick up. But as soon as you start hearing somebody just seen and you'll hear four. But as soon as they start hearing these things over and over again, they absolutely turn them out. And it not only diminishes the value of the subsequent ads, but it starts to diminish the impact of the first ad.
Stuart Turley [00:29:33] Yeah. Do you think how many times, David, do you think the Dems will be in?
David Blackmon [00:29:40] Go ahead.
Stuart Turley [00:29:42] Do you think the Dems will be insane enough to try to sense Trump to prison for the made up felonies for bookkeeping issues?
David Blackmon [00:29:50] Robert Barnes had an opinion on that over the weekend on a podcast. He did. He does with various I asked him that in. And no, I'm sorry. It was on America's Untold Stories. He was asked that and he said, no, I think the judge will grant a mistrial. And I hope he's right about that. I know that they're going to the Democrats are going to go round and round on that question between now and November 26th. I hope Robert Barnes is right about the.
Larry Schweikart [00:30:25] Number of things that could happen. I mean, he could he could, in fact, give him a sentence that would likely be suspended upon appeal. That's what I think we will do. But we've already heard that the appellate court is negative, that their questions were highly negative toward this case. And in other words, the likelihood is that an appellate court is not going to be friendly to keeping this case open at all. Yeah. So you've got two judges who want to say how bad does he want to save face in this case? Does he want to just have the sentence and have it suspended on appeal? And the appeal will come down sometime next year when it doesn't matter. But I think if he tries any kind of immediate enforcement of some sort of sentence there involved jail, it would it would be rushed up to the Supreme Court so fast it would make your head spin, because that's clear election interference, number one. Number two, you can't sentence somebody who is going to be president who at that point is supposed to start receiving classified briefings, as Raskin would say, they're supposed to start cooperating. You can't do it. You can't do both. So they once again, that shows how incompetent these people are. They've shot themselves in the foot because now they have things going forward that are contradictory.
David Blackmon [00:31:56] Yeah, that whole Lawfare effort has been a major failure on their part. You know, it was all coordinated out of the White House and the Justice Department on all these different cases. And, you know, it just there's so many ways to delay and fight back on these things. And they didn't, I think, anticipate the quality of the lawyers, the legal representation that Trump would hire. And I think his lawyers have served him very well through all of that. And it's one of the most. I mean, I just got to say, I think it's most one of the most repugnant episodes in our country's history that we had a sitting president and his mob. Weaponizing the legal process like that, just like you would have done in the Soviet Union. And if there's no punishment for doing that, then it's a bit damaging to our country.
Stuart Turley [00:32:54] I never would have thought that our DOJ would be suing states to keep dead people and illegals the right to vote. Never thought I'd do that.
Larry Schweikart [00:33:05] Well, this kind of brings us to that fifth Circuit case that I've heard so much about. And this is a case that involves Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana. Is Arkansas in the circuit? I don't think. So
David Blackmon [00:33:17] I think Oklahoma may be okay.
Larry Schweikart [00:33:20] So, in essence, they said the Fifth Circuit said that all votes must be counted by midnight, that you can accept no more votes after midnight. And so that precludes any kind of, you know, postal Service activities in the middle of the night from foreign states. The problem from our side is that it only applies to those states and that, say, the Third Circuit could, in a similar case, rule exactly the opposite. And so traditionally, what would happen would be the side wanting to impose their will on on the country would appeal that find a way to appeal it. Well, this precedent says this and this precedent says that what are we supposed to do? And it would go up to the Supreme Court. Zen master assures me my my anonymous court expert, that the Supes want nothing whatsoever to do with elections. They they don't want to get in that position. And so they would simply decline to hear any such appeal. So the you know, you guys have it good, but other parts of the country that need that perhaps more than you do such as. All right. Whatever circuit Pennsylvania is in Michigan, Georgia, yet Georgia, they're not going to have that. And the law won't apply. The ruling won't apply to them.
David Blackmon [00:34:43] Well, and that's a shame. But I think you're absolutely right. And frankly, I think it's appropriate that the Supreme Court doesn't want to get in to these election issues. Right. I mean, it's not really supposed to be their role unless there's no other choice. So I just I don't have a problem with them not wanting to get involved in a case like that.
Larry Schweikart [00:35:08] Well, if you go back to Bush v Gore, the whole reason the Supreme Court got involved in that was the question of constitutional timing. It had to do with the constitutional clock was ticking down that said that the electors had to be sent to the who is it, the librarian of Congress. The circuit court in D.C. and the federal court in whatever area that state is in. So the federal court there in Florida and they had a certain date, I think was December 12th, back in 2020, that they had to get those electors in. And so, once again, it's Al Gore who was the antithesis of Bill Clinton, who had a smooth running political machine and a war room, knew how to counter everything. Al Gore was once again kind of a boob. And he he tried appealing three counties in Florida saying that those were miscounted and they needed to be recounted. And the Georgia Democrat courts allowed him to do that when in fact, he wasted valuable time. If he had gone straight to the we need a total recount of all Florida, which probably would have worked out in Bush's advantage and be gone straight to the Supreme Court with that, they would have had time to recount all Florida. But by the time it got to the Supreme Court after appeals through the rest of the system, it was too late. And the Supreme Court said, no, there's no time to count these ballots. They didn't rule on the the ballots themselves, like the butterfly ballot, then rule on that. They ruled on the constitutional issue of is there enough time to do this?
Stuart Turley [00:36:48] Larry. David, let me let me ask this. There is a question that I've been seeing flying around X a lot on, and that is will cackles Carmela cackle, cackling, come on, or whatever you want to call her. Will she certify the election?
Larry Schweikart [00:37:07] She has no choice. And this is another place that the Democrats stepped on their own appendages, shall we say, after 2020, as they put in all sorts of new laws, drastically limiting the role of the vice president in a challenge. So now all she can do is just certify that the vote she has no choice.
David Blackmon [00:37:32] Yep. Yep.
Stuart Turley [00:37:34] I like it. But will she is the question.
David Blackmon [00:37:38] Well, actually, she doesn't have a choice. Again, it's not her discretion anymore. Pence had some discretion four years ago, but the law that Congress put into effect and the president of the United States, or at least the sock puppet pretending to be the president of the United States, signed it. And so the lawyer, she has to certify it. If the if the House votes to certify it, she she has to approve it.
Larry Schweikart [00:38:05] Here's the whole interesting thing of the Pence business. All Pence had to do was follow the Constitution and to accept a challenge from one senator and one Republican. At which point he should have adjourned the joint session since each session back to their own house to deliberate. Now, the Democrats in the House would have deliberated for five minutes. All it took to get the last member and take the count and go back out the Republicans. The question was, would the Republicans have actually listened to or permitted the introduction of evidence of fraud in their hearing? And my thought is they would have made a kind of facade of listening to this, that they would have pretended to hold a real serious look at the fraud and then they would have voted with all the rhinos in their no fraud and sent it back out. Now, when you think of what that would have done, number one, Mike Pence would have been something of a hero on the right. Number two, it would have defuzed a lot of the anger at the steal and put it on the backs of the rhinos and the Democrats who would have been so much smarter to have allowed that. It's just it's insane how stupid these people have become since Obama. You know, Obama's team was pretty bright. They knew how to massage the public. They knew how to hit things. They knew how to control things. And since then, the Democrat teams, whether it was Hillary or Rutabaga or anybody else, these people did I say this before? They are morons, you know? They are just stupid. And everything they are trying is just it reminds me of the Dallas Cowboys, I got to tell you.
David Blackmon [00:39:56] My God.
Stuart Turley [00:39:59] I bring it up. Some painful memories of yesterday. Holy smokes.
Larry Schweikart [00:40:03] To be a Cowboys fan, you've got to take a morphine injection before you go to the agent.
David Blackmon [00:40:08] Man, I went to bed at halftime. I knew at halftime, and they were ahead and knew at halftime because of the way that running back went crazy in the last two minutes of the half that the Cowboys were going to blow that game. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:40:21] Larry David, The only thing that I could say about my football teams. Oklahoma State stinks. You stinks. Texas is doing good. But I'll tell you what, Kansas City, I've been a Kansas City Chiefs fan for a very, very long time. And I But you've got to go with.
Larry Schweikart [00:40:40] You've got the wrong name. They rename the team. It's the Kansas City Swifts.
Stuart Turley [00:40:45] But she didn't show up yesterday. And I know I didn't have to watch a single swift moment.
Larry Schweikart [00:40:52] Well, I got to hand it to them. And, you know, woe to all those people who for years are saying Andy Reid isn't a good coach, you know? I mean, how stupid do they look?
David Blackmon [00:41:02] Yeah, of course it helps to have Pat Mahomes, but it does. He's a hell of a coach. I mean, even at Philadelphia, we knew he was a hell of a coach.
Larry Schweikart [00:41:12] But we were going to have only three superstars. They've got Mahomes, they've got Kelce, and they've got the defensive end. I forget his name. Those are three superstars. Usually you look at the Steelers in the 70s, they were loaded. They had an all pro at every single position. Right. The Chiefs don't. And a lot of that has to go to to good Ole Andy Reid. Now I have a solution for the Cowboys. They're not going to like it. But the solution is the David Justice solution, which is when the Yankees wanted out of the gigantic David Justice contract, they traded him and they agreed to pay half his contract. If Jerry wants to fix this, I don't think he does. But if he wants to fix it, the first step would come by trading Dak and agreeing to pay half his contract to whoever takes him up your hand, right?
David Blackmon [00:41:59] Well, yeah, that was a huge mistake. And I said it at the time. It was a huge mistake to resign him. But anyway, you've mortgage the whole franchise for a long time. But back to the Democrats are being stupid. So I think the prime example we have is the fact that they booted Biden off the ticket when they did and replaced him not with one of the governors who wanted it, but with Kamala Harris. So I looked at the polling market this morning. I'm going to give you exactly the right example on this. The odds for Trump right now poorly market. He's sitting at 66.1% to 33.9 on the day they booted Biden off the ticket. Trump was at 65.5% to 34.5. Okay. She's doing worse than Biden. She's doing She's changed nothing. They're back to square one. With eight days to go before Election Day. And 40% of the votes nationally already haven't been cast.
Larry Schweikart [00:43:02] Some aren't. Barnes and Bears have been over the data ad nauseum and shown how Biden at least appealed to certain groups in the upper Midwest, where capital has no appeal whatsoever, and that they were going to lose any chance, which he didn't have much of a chance back then, but they were going to lose any chance they had by alienating those voters. Barnes has discussion last week of the markets is interesting. And of course, he's a veteran gambler. He doesn't think he's a gambler. He's a wager because he believes that if you gather enough information, it's it's not really a bet. But his analysis was that what's happened is that by opening up these markets to ordinary people, that you're starting to get a Trump effect in the markets, which is that ordinary people are having an effect on the voting and on the wagering, and they can't rig it the way they could say in 2016. My concern with markets as a predictor of political events is that ultimately, and even Barnes has admitted this, ultimately, at some point it's about making money. It's not about advancing an agenda or an idea. Right. And he pointed out that and I would always say, if you believe in polling market and those kinds of things, how do you do on around midnight in 2020, when Trump was a 99% favorite to win? Right. And Barnes said, well, I got out. His answer was that he was smart enough to get out at that time because he didn't he wanted to take his money and run. But again, that dodges the question of, well, are they really that predictive? And other things happen that can really. Sure.
David Blackmon [00:44:52] Absolutely. Yeah, I think they're probably as predictive as the public opinion polls, which is often they're wrong and often they're right. But I think the thing to say about the question of whether they should have replaced Biden with Harris is that Harris has changed nothing. She's behind in the polls just like Biden was. She's behind the betting markets just like Biden was. Nate Silver Index. Nate Silver is predicting her to lose just like he was predicting Biden would lose. It's just in every measure. They've gone back to square one with eight days left in the race.
Larry Schweikart [00:45:31] But you mentioned the governor. See, and here's the problem again.
David Blackmon [00:45:33] They weren't any better either.
Larry Schweikart [00:45:35] But in any of the governors would have been worse from the standpoint of they wouldn't have had the money because legally, the only way you could transfer all of Biden's fundraising, which is that time, was something like $400 million to anybody. It only could have been Harris because the ticket before that was Biden. Harris Biden drops out. Harris is still legally entitled to that money. Sort of like a bad divorce. But but if you were to name Newsom, he might be a little bit more popular, but he wouldn't have had all of that that money. You would have had to ramp up a campaign from When did that occur? Was it mid-July when
David Blackmon [00:46:18] it was. July 20th something 21st? I think maybe.
Larry Schweikart [00:46:22] So he would have had to have raised all that money in August and September, which would have really detracted from regular old campaigning. Moreover, I think a lot of these governors sensed that Trump couldn't be beaten no matter who you put in there, and that they didn't want to waste their shot now, when they could in 2028, possibly go up against who we now think will be J.D. Vance.
David Blackmon [00:46:49] Yeah. Yeah, maybe. Hopefully. Listen, we're we're running short of time.
Larry Schweikart [00:46:55] You're kidding. We just started
David Blackmon [00:46:56] I know this will be our last episode before Election Day. And Larry, I've really enjoyed doing this with you and Stu. And I think we should close this out by making predictions about how this election's going to go. And, you know, I think we can do it in whatever format you'll choose. I'm going to focus just strictly on the presidential race in races in Texas, but. You. Y'all can do what you want to do. We'll start with.
Stuart Turley [00:47:32] I think we're going to head around that. 312 on the Electoral College mark for the president and the hillbilly. I really am looking at that. I believe, Larry, you had said that somewhere in that range on on some somewhere else in that in that range. I'm not claiming it. And I'm going to give it to you, Larry, that I think I heard it from you. If not, I'm still going to claim it.
Larry Schweikart [00:48:02] Well, I've had Trump at 312 electoral votes since June. It hasn't hasn't moved one iota, in my view. The only thing that has changed is now I think it is more likely, let's say 55%, that he would also pull in 1 or 2 of the second tier of battleground states, meaning the New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia, Maine, New Mexico. We had a poll out of New Mexico last week that was three points. That's margin of error. So I'm going to say 312, but I will not be a bit surprised if it goes up as high as 340. Republicans will net three seats in the Senate, West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. But they have a very good chance of netting an additional two and even three. And I think that McCormick is tied now and could win Pennsylvania. Rogers is tied, could win Michigan, Covid is tied, could win Wisconsin. And then you've got just outside the margin of error. Terry Lake, given our turnout in Arizona, she has a real shot now. And Sam Brown apparently has been polling well enough that the Republican Senatorial Committee is putting a bunch of money into his race. So with our plus three Senate. But it won't surprise me if it's our plus six or even R plus eight. And we hold the Republicans, hold the House.
Stuart Turley [00:49:35] Republicans hold the House still at three seats. Or do you think we may pick?
Larry Schweikart [00:49:39] I think they pick up 5 to 10. For example, we just saw something come out of Minnesota that says six out of the seven contested seats, there are Republicans leading to the contested seats in California, Republicans leading. So, again, one of the reasons Trump did the rally in Madison Square Garden was to help house candidates in New York and New Jersey get over the edge. So I think that you'll probably see Republicans in the neighborhood of 225 to 2, 35 in the House.
Stuart Turley [00:50:15] Do you think he gets the popular vote?
Larry Schweikart [00:50:17] Yes, by one and a half points. Barnes says three, bearish says one. So I'm going to split it.
David Blackmon [00:50:27] Well, I hope he does do that. It would be really unifying for the country if he was able to win the popular vote as well as the Electoral College. I think you certainly win the Electoral College. I'm not going to try to guess the number of votes, but he'll win and it'll be pretty solid. In Texas, Ted Cruz is going to win by 6 to 8% of the vote. And people need to stop worrying about that. Trump will have a double digit win here in Texas. It won't be close and won't be close in Florida either. And, you know, I think obviously that the Republicans will have a majority in the Senate. I think like Larry does. I think it's probably going to be at the lower end of the range, probably 52 or 53. And in the house, it's going to be a narrow majority as well. Unless. And here's the one thing. If the the people who haven't voted and are still semi undecided, very hard for Trump in these battleground states, you could see a pretty significant majority in the House and a pretty significant popular vote going for Trump. And I think that when you look at the early voting combined with the polling in California and New York, which is still one sided, but 15 to 25 points closer than it was in 2020, heading into Election Day, you have the possibility for a pretty significant, maybe 52 or 53% Trump win in the popular vote if those polls are accurate. So, you know, this could be a pretty big Election Day and we could all have an early night election night. And that's what I'm really hoping for.
Stuart Turley [00:52:16] Let's not call it, though.
Larry Schweikart [00:52:20] Yeah. Why don't you stay on the. Yeah, watch us. I will call it if I am convinced that that Trump has won a state and and I'm talking to various people and various and other people say, no, all the votes that are outstanding are still red votes and there's no more that they can get. We won't hesitate to call it. But we didn't make any early calls in 2020, and I don't think we'll make any false calls in 24. I did promise my colleague Seth Castle that he got to call that President Trump has won the election. He'll be the one to call that.
David Blackmon [00:52:58] Well, I hope he gets to do it. I think you will. Yeah. Thank you, gentlemen. This has been very enjoyable. Really appreciate it. And thank you to everybody who has watched and listened to these. And everybody get out and vote. Do it this week. Thank you. Vote as early as you can and get it done. Vote on the rules. Yeah. Don't risk having something come up and preventing you from being to get out on election Day. Yeah. I think we're done. Boys and girls.
Larry Schweikart [00:53:26] Bye, guys.
David Blackmon [00:53:27] Have a great week.
Stuart Turley [00:53:29] Bye bye.
Weekly Talking Points with Larry Schweikart, Best Selling Author